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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 4

FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Yap State: In the uneventful weather patterns of 2010, the rainfall across Yap State has been mostly near normal. For the three-month period of July through September, the rainfall across Yap Island was approximately 35 to 45 inches. WSO Yap received a three-month total of 44.63 inches, which was 103% of normal.

Yap State Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2010
Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr
Predicted
Yap Island
Yap WSO
 Rainfall (inches)
17.73
16.83
10.07
44.63
41.16
% of Normal
122%
111%
75%
103%
95%
Dugor
 Rainfall (inches)
15.27
17.51
8.99
41.77
41.16
% of WSO
105%
115%
67%
97%
95%
Gilman
 Rainfall (inches)
13.54
15.12
10.24
38.90
41.16
% of WSO
93%
100%
76%
90%
95%
Luweech
 Rainfall (inches)
16.44
17.97
11.93
46.34
41.16
% of WSO
113%
119%
89%
107%
95%
Maap
 Rainfall (inches)
14.20
14.24
6.54
34.98
41.16
% of WSO
98%
94%
49%
81%
95%
North Fanif
 Rainfall (inches)
14.83
14.23
10.60
39.66
41.16
% of WSO
102%
94%
79%
92%
95%
Rumung
 Rainfall (inches)
12.82
13.64
11.48
37.94
41.16
% of WSO
88%
90%
86%
88%
95%
Tamil
 Rainfall (inches)
12.37
11.38
8.68
32.42
41.16
% of WSO
85%
75%
65%
75%
95%
Outer Islands
Ulithi
 Rainfall (inches)
10.35
12.45
10.71
33.51
34.98
% of Normal
84%
96%
93%
91%
95%
Woleai
 Rainfall (inches)
6.28
9.14
15.81
31.21
27.47
% of Normal
63%
95%
170%
108%
95%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2010 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: There is a slight risk (roughly a 5-10% chance) of a damaging tropical cyclone in Yap State or its outer atolls in November 2010 through January 2011. This level of risk is near normal. Most late season tropical cyclones affecting Yap form near Chuuk or Guam and pass to the north of Yap Island.

It is now expected that the upcoming dry season will be near normal throughout Yap State, both in terms of monthly rainfall and the duration of the dry season. No unusual dry periods are anticipated for the next three to six months.

Predicted rainfall for Yap State from October 2010 through September 2011 is as follows:
Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Yap and Ulithi
Woleai
October - December 2010
(End of Next Season)
110%
(33.45 inches)
100%
(35.86 inches)
January - April 2011
(Next Dry Season)
100% 100%
May - June 2011
(Onset of Next Rainy Season)
120% 100%
July - September 2011
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)
110% 100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI

Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324
Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: January 27 2011 01:24:01 GMT

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