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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 4


PEAC CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

The PEAC outlook1 for tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin for the remainder of 2010 (November and December) is for low activity and continued westward displacement. The anticipated distribution of tropical cyclones for the remainder of 2010 reduces the risk of a damaging tropical storm or typhoon at all islands located eastward of 140ºE. The risk of a damaging tropical cyclone at Yap or Palau (both located to the west of 140ºE) will be close to normal. The upcoming hurricane season for American Samoa is also anticipated to be less active than normal (see island summaries for further details).


1The PEAC tropical cyclone forecasts for 2010 are provisional. The PEAC considers input from three seasonal outlooks for tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific basin: (1) The City University of Hong Kong Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, under the direction of Dr. J. C-L. Chan; (2) The Benfield Hazard Research Centre, University College London, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) research group, UK, led by Dr Adam Lea and Professor Mark Saunders (http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com); and, (3) an experimental typhoon outlook produced by Paul Stanko (forecaster at the Guam WFO).



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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Page Last Modified: August 04 2011 22:17:15 GMT

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