Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center
banner piece
  banner piece
Local forecast by
"City, St" or Zip Code
Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 4


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Pohnpei State: The 3rd Quarter rainfall was slightly drier than normal on Pohnpei Island and on most atolls of Pohnpei State. Because La Niña has produced colder than normal sea surface temperature along the equator, the atolls of Pohnpei State that are located at low latitudes (e.g., Kapingamarangi at 1°N and Nukuoro at 4°N) have had reduced rainfall in recent months. The reduction of rainfall has been most pronounced at Kapingamarangi where only 0.72 inches of rain (12%) fell in September 2010. This level of dryness has prompted the WFO Guam in coordination with the WSO Pohnpei to issue weekly drought advisories for Kapingamarangi, which will continue until rainfall resumes at that island. Rainfall is expected to remain low at Kapingamarangi for the next few months, but then recover somewhat as the southern Hemisphere summer wind patterns become established in January 2011.

Pohnpei Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2010

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr
Predicted
Pohnpei Island
Pohnpei WSO
Rainfall (inches)
14.00
14.23
15.00
43.23
50.98
% of Normal
76%
86%
93%
85%
100%
Palikir
Rainfall (inches)
11.96
18.02
10.98
40.96
54.76
% of Normal
61%
101%
64%
75%
100%
Kolonia Airport
Rainfall (inches)
9.93
12.24
13.64
35.81
41.64
% of Normal
66%
90%
104%
86%
100%
Atolls of Pohnpei State
Nukuoro
Rainfall (inches)
16.92
13.39
4.43
34.74
36.75
% of Normal
118%
118%
40%
95%
100%
Pingelap
Rainfall (inches)
9.08
10.22
11.89
31.19
45.87
% of Normal
57%
69%
79%
68%
100%
Mwokilloa
Rainfall (inches)
8.83
15.94
13.27
38.04
41.80
% of Normal
59%
118%
101%
91%
100%
Kapingamarangi
Rainfall (inches)
4.51
3.16
0.72
8.39
22.48
% of Normal
43%
51%
12%
37%
100%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2010 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: For the next three months (November 2010 through January 2011), the dry conditions at Kapingamarangi should continue. After the Southern Hemisphere summer wind patterns become established in January, the rainfall at Kapingamarangi will gradually recover to near normal.

Pohnpei Island usually experiences its heaviest monthly rainfall during April through June. It may be quite wet on Pohnpei Island during April through June of 2011, with 25-30 inches of rain possible in one of those months at the WSO or at Palikir. A direct strike of any Pohnpei State location by a tropical storm or typhoon is not anticipated in the foreseeable future.

Forecast rainfall for Pohnpei State from October 2010 through September 2011 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Pohnpei Islands and Atolls Kapingamarangi
October - December 2010
90%
(42.91 inches)
50%
(10.88 inches)
January - March 2011
95%
75%
April - June 2011
120% 90%
July - September 2011
100% 100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: January 28 2011 20:15:02 GMT

Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary

Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities