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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 4


Palau Flag Republic of Palau: Tranquil weather prevailed throughout the Republic of Palau during the 3rd Quarter of 2010. An unusual abundance of easterly low-level winds related to La Niña contributed to fewer heavy rainfall events. This is attributed to tropical cyclones passing to the north, and a lack of heavy rainfall normally associated with the monsoon trough. La Niña usually makes Palau wetter than normal, but this La Niña has forced rain-making systems farther to the west and north.

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2010

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr
Predicted
Koror WSO
Rainfall (inches)
10.54
12.81
11.95
35.30
44.85
% of Normal
58%
86%
101%
79%
100%
Nekken
Rainfall (inches)
13.52
N/A
7.70
N/A
44.85
% of WSO
75%
N/A
65%
N/A
100%
International
Airport
Rainfall (inches)
12.75
15.00
9.54
37.29
44.85
% of WSO
71%
100%
80%
83%
100%
Peleliu
Rainfall (inches)
10.86
12.67
11.55
35.08
44.85
% of WSO
61%
85%
97%
79%
100%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2010 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: There is only a slight risk (5% or less) of a damaging tropical cyclone in the Republic of Palau in November or December of 2010. It is more likely that one of the basin’s final typhoons of 2010 will move to the north or northeast of Palau to bring a few days of gusty westerly winds and some heavy showers.

With La Niña conditions soon reaching a peak, and then slowly abating during the first half of 2011, Palau should have near-normal to above-normal rainfall for the foreseeable future.

Forecast rainfall for Palau from October 2010 through September 2011 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
October - December 2009
100%
(37.36 inches)

January -March 2010

100%
April - June 2010
120%
July - October 2010
100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: January 28 2011 23:00:04 GMT

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