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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 4


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: The tongue of colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures, which is responsible for the substantial reduction of the rainfall at Kapingamarangi, has had a small but noticeable impact on rainfall at Kosrae. Located at just under 6°N, the island of Kosrae has, at times, been in dry easterly wind flow, with heavier rainfall passing to the north in the convergence zone. Conditions across Kosrae were particularly dry in September, with the 3-month period of July through September receiving only about 75% of normal rainfall.

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2010

Station  
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
3rd Qtr
Predicted
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (Inches)
18.69
10.55
6.94
36.18
50.70
% of Normal
110%
64%
40%
71%
100%
Utwa
Rainfall (Inches)
21.44
15.21
9.89
46.54
50.70
% of WSO
126%
92%
58%
92%
100%
Nautilus Hotel
Rainfall (Inches)
16.74
12.25
7.83
36.82
50.70
% of WSO
98%
74%
46%
73%
100%
Tofol
Rainfall (Inches)
17.83
12.07
8.97
38.87
50.70
% of WSO
105%
73%
52%
77%
100%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2010 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: Monthly rainfall amounts should fall slightly short of normal for the next 2 or 3 months, thereafter returning to near normal. When the convergence zone (i.e., ITCZ) rainfall returns in April and May 2011, it should be slightly wetter than normal on Kosrae.

Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from October 2010 through September 2011 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

October - December 2010

90%
(41.94 inches)

January - March 2011

95%

April - June 2011

120%

July - September 2011

100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: January 28 2011 20:21:58 GMT

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