Local forecast by
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4th Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 4
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 Federated States of Micronesia
Kosrae State: The tongue of colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures, which is responsible for the substantial reduction of the rainfall at Kapingamarangi, has had a small but noticeable impact on rainfall at Kosrae. Located at just under 6°N, the island of Kosrae has, at times, been in dry easterly wind flow, with heavier rainfall passing to the north in the convergence zone. Conditions across Kosrae were particularly dry in September, with the 3-month period of July through September receiving only about 75% of normal rainfall.
Kosrae Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2010
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| Station |
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Jul. |
Aug. |
Sep. |
3rd Qtr |
Predicted |
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS) |
Rainfall (Inches) |
18.69 |
10.55 |
6.94 |
36.18 |
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| % of Normal |
110% |
64% |
40% |
71% |
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Utwa |
Rainfall (Inches) |
21.44 |
15.21 |
9.89 |
46.54 |
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| % of WSO |
126% |
92% |
58% |
92% |
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Nautilus Hotel |
Rainfall (Inches) |
16.74 |
12.25 |
7.83 |
36.82 |
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| % of WSO |
98% |
74% |
46% |
73% |
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Tofol |
Rainfall (Inches) |
17.83 |
12.07 |
8.97 |
38.87 |
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| % of WSO |
105% |
73% |
52% |
77% |
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Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2010 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
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Climate Outlook: Monthly rainfall amounts should fall slightly short of normal for the next 2 or 3 months, thereafter returning to near normal. When the convergence zone (i.e., ITCZ) rainfall returns in April and May 2011, it should be slightly wetter than normal on Kosrae.
Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from October 2010 through September 2011 is as follows:
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Inclusive Period
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% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
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90%
(41.94 inches) |
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95% |
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120% |
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100% |
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Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.
source: UOG-WERI
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