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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 4


Guam and CNMI text Guam/CNMI:  Tranquil conditions dominated the weather of Guam and the CNMI for the 3rd Quarter of 2010. Easterly low-level wind anomalies associated with La Niña prevented the southwest monsoon from reaching the islands, and in doing so prevented tropical cyclones. On Guam, most areas were drier than normal, with a notable reduction of heavy rainfall events (i.e., more than 2 inches in 24 hours). Only two events of 3-4 inches in 24 hours, both of which occurred during October 2010, produced sufficient runoff in Guam’s southern streams to generate extensive red plumes of sediment into the ocean. With the exception of the El Niño year of 2009, the past several years have seen no strong episodes of the SW monsoon, no typhoons, and few notable extremes of rainfall throughout Guam and the CNMI. On Guam, there have been two deaths this year from trees falling on people during fair weather. This is a sad irony, as during the active tropical cyclone seasons of the 1990s and early 2000s, there were no deaths on Guam attributed to falling trees or other wind-blown debris. In the CNMI, rainfall was near normal during the third quarter of 2010. Tranquil weather has dominated, and the monsoon and tropical cyclone activity has been conspicuously absent.

Guam and CNMI Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2010

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr
Predicted
Guam
Guam Intl. Airport (WFO)
Rainfall (inches)
12.09
12.18
12.15
36.42
36.04
% of Normal
115%
89%
90%
96%
95%
Anderson AFB
Rainfall (inches)
8.56
9.32
11.50
29.38
35.78
% of Normal
78%
69%
86%
78%
95%
University of Guam
Rainfall (inches)
8.21
8.95
10.71
27.87
35.78
% of Normal
52%
29%
84%
56%
95%
Dedado (Ypapao)
Rainfall (inches)
9.07
9.97
10.60
29.64
35.64
% of AAFB
83%
74%
80%
79%
95%
Ugum Watershed
Rainfall (inches)
5.71
9.82
12.17
27.70
39.28
% of WSMO
48%
67%
81%
67%
95%
Sinajaña
Rainfall (inches)
12.50
9.70
15.19
37.39
35.88
% of WFO
118%
71%
113%
99%
95%
Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands
Saipan Intl. Airport
Rainfall (inches)
8.84
14.16
7.27
30.27
30.61
% of Normal
109%
113%
54%
89%
90%
Capital Hill
Rainfall (inches)
9.44
16.16
10.61
36.21
31.64
% of Normal
105%
129%
79%
103%
90%
Tinian Airport
Rainfall (inches)
10.35
12.45
10.71
33.51
31.42
% of Normal
115%
100%
79%
96%
90%
Rota Airport
Rainfall (inches)
6.28
9.14
15.81
31.23
35.32
% of Normal
60%
69%
118%
84%
95%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2010 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: For the remainder of 2010 and into February of 2011, Guam and the CNMI face a reduced risk of tropical cyclones passing within 200 miles of any Guam or CNMI location. La Niña reduces the risk of a damaging typhoon on Guam and in the CNMI, particularly when La Niña conditions develop rapidly after an El Niño year. The risk of a typhoon on Guam and in the CNMI is now less than 10% over the course of the next 3 months. (Low, but not zero!)

Rainfall is anticipated to be near normal for Guam and the CNMI for the remainder of 2010. During the first half of 2011, rainfall is anticipated to continue to be at, or slightly above normal.

Predicted rainfall for Guam and the Mariana Islands from October 2010 through September 2011 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Guam/Rota
Saipan/Tinian
October – December 2010
(End of Rainy Season)
100%
(25.63 inches)
100%
(22.06 inches)
January – March 2011
(Onset of Next Dry Season)
100%
100%
April – June 2011
(2nd Half of Next Dry Season)
110%
110%
July– September 2011
(Next Rainy Season)
110%
110%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Page Last Modified: January 27 2011 01:13:01 GMT

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