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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 4


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Chuuk State:  Rainfall was abundant throughout Chuuk State during the 3rd Quarter of 2010, with some large month-to-month and island-to-island variations. The 3rd quarter total of 50.38 inches (132%) of rain at the Chuuk WSO was one of the highest values reported in Micronesia, in terms of magnitude and percent of normal (See Figs 1a and 1b, page 2). The Chuuk WSO (in the lagoon) and Piis Panew (on the rim of the Lagoon) experienced over 20 inches of rain during August 2010. Rain in excess of 20 inches in one month is not that rare in Chuuk, and occurs on average roughly once or twice per year. Monthly rainfall exceeding 20 inches is most common in August and September, and it has not historically occurred in February or March at the WSO. The month of September was drier than July or August at all Chuuk locations. Polowat was the driest location, with a July through September rainfall of less than 20 inches (46%).

Chuuk State Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2010

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr Predicted
Chuuk Lagoon
Chuuk WSO
Rainfall (inches)
14.63
22.64
13.11
50.38
34.35
% of Normal
121%
155%
114%
132%
90%
Piis Panew
Rainfall (inches)
14.00
21.05
3.08
38.13
34.35
% of WSO
116%
144%
27%
100%
90%
Southern Mortlocks
Lukunoch
Rainfall (inches)
20.21
15.30
12.98
48.49
38.18
% of WSO
167%
105%
113%
127%
100%
Ettal
Rainfall (inches)
19.28
15.62
16.94
51.84
38.18
% of WSO
159%
107%
142%
136%
100%
Ta
Rainfall (inches)
12.60
17.81
7.10
37.51
38.18
% of WSO
104%
122%
62%
98%
100%
Namoluk
Rainfall (inches)
13.94
12.72
10.84
37.50
38.18
% of WSO
115%
87%
94%
98%
100%
Northern Atolls
Fananu
Rainfall (inches)
13.28
14.20
5.20
32.68
34.35
% of WSO
110%
97%
45%
86%
90%
Onoun
Rainfall (inches)
11.92
16.76
14.59
43.27
34.35
% of WSO
99%
115%
127%
113%
90%
Northern Mortlocks
Losap
Rainfall (inches)
10.25
10.31
12.21
32.77
34.35
% of WSO
85%
71%
106%
86%
90%
Nama
Rainfall (inches)
11.44
9.53
7.94
28.91
34.35
% of WSO
95%
65%
69%
76%
90%
Western Atolls
Polowat
Rainfall (inches)
8.59
8.51
2.51
19.61
36.26
% of WSO
61%
57%
19%
46%
95%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2010 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: Northern Chuuk State will soon enter its short dry season, in which the months of February and March typically fall below 10 inches of rain. It is anticipated that near normal rainfall will be experienced in Chuuk State for the next 3 to 6 months. With an active and persistent trade wind trough developing in the spring of 2011, the Mortlock Islands should be wetter during this time (April through June) than other islands and atolls further to the north.

For the next three months (November 2010 through January 2011), there is a low risk chance (1-in-10, or 10%) of a tropical storm passing through Chuuk State. One or two episodes of heavy rain and gusty westerly winds may occur through December, after which time northeast winds and typical dry season weather conditions should prevail.

With sea level above normal during the next 3 to 6 months, there is an elevated risk of sea inundation during times of highest surf. This inundation will likely occur in areas where large winter surf caused problems in recent years.

Predictions for Chuuk State from October 2010 through September 2011 are as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Chuuk Lagoon, and Northern Mortlocks
Polowat
Northern Atolls

Southern
Mortlocks

October - December 2010
100%
(35.55 inches)
90%
(32.00 inches)
95%
(35.77 inches)
100%
(35.55 inches)
January - March 2011
100%
90%
90%
100%
April - June 2011
110%
100%
100%
130%
July - September 2011
100%
100%
100%
100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Page Last Modified: January 27 2011 03:07:57 GMT

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