Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service Forecast Office   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Pacific ENSO Applications Climate Center
banner piece
  banner piece
Local forecast by
"City, St" or Zip Code
Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 4


American Samoa Flag American Samoa: Through the heart of its dry season (roughly June through October), American Samoa experienced gusty SE trade winds and slightly above normal rainfall. No extreme rainfall events or damaging weather conditions were reported.

American Samoa Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2010

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr
Predicted
Pago Pago WSO
Rainfall (inches)
8.30
4.32
9.68
22.30
19.55
% of Normal
132%
64%
145%
113%
100%
A'asufou
Rainfall (inches)
23.10
13.79
13.81
50.70
N/A
% of Normal
N/A
N/A
N/A
119%
N/A
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2010 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: Computer forecasts and a consensus of outlooks from several regional meteorological centers indicate that rainfall in American Samoa is likely to be above normal for the next few months as the next rainy season becomes established. The rainy season and the hurricane season of 2010-2011 in the American Samoa region is about to begin. Anticipated atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with La Niña will favor enhanced tropical cyclone activity to the west of the region of American Samoa. Recent seasonal forecasts from the Bureau of Meteorology for the Australian region have called for a very active season in Australian waters. High activity is expected in all Australian TC regions including the Coral Sea. This typical La Niña pattern should keep most TC activity to the west of American Samoa. The threat of a direct strike by a hurricane at some location within American Samoa (normally on the order of 15-20%), will be reduced to 10% or less (but not zero!).

Forecast rainfall for American Samoa from October 2010 through September 2011 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

October - December 2010
(Onset of Rainy Season)
120%
(41.5 inches - Pago Pago)
January - March 2010
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)
120%
April - May 2010
(Onset of Next Dry Season)
100%
June - October 2010
(Heart of Next Dry Season)
100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: January 26 2011 22:40:03 GMT

Disclaimer
Credits
Glossary

Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities