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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 3


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Yap State: All Yap Island locations were relatively dry during the first half of 2010, with the months of February and May being particularly dry (less than 3 inches in each month). 2010 First Half rainfall totals were about two-thirds of normal, while 2nd Quarter totals edged closer to normal (75%). The weather at Yap Island and the atolls of Yap State was mostly unremarkable during the first half of 2010. Water supplies remained adequate despite the relatively dry conditions. On the morning of 23 March, Tropical Storm Omais (the only named tropical cyclone in the western North Pacific basin in the first half of 2010) passed close to the island of Ulithi. No significant damage or injuries were reported.

Yap State Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2010

Station   April May June 2nd Qtr
1st Half
Yap Island
Yap WSO
Rainfall (inches)
7.11
2.96
9.89
19.96
31.69
% of Normal
123%
32%
78%
73%
68%
Dugor
Rainfall (inches)
7.79
2.49
9.78
20.06
31.52
% of WSO
135%
27%
77%
73%
67%
Gilman
Rainfall (inches)
6.82
2.46
7.33
16.61
28.98
% of WSO
118%
27%
58%
60%
62%
Luweech
Rainfall (inches)
7.07
2.03
10.40
19.50
31.28
% of WSO
122%
22%
82%
71%
67%
Maap
Rainfall (inches)
8.54
1.13
5.65
15.32
28.93
% of WSO
148%
12%
45%
56%
62%
North Fanif
Rainfall (inches)
7.08
3.19
9.94
20.21
31.32
% of WSO
122%
34%
78%
73%
67%
Rumung
Rainfall (inches)
8.16
2.68
10.03
20.87
37.39
% of WSO
141%
29%
79%
76%
80%
Tamil
Rainfall (inches)
7.47
2.69
10.66
20.82
32.04
% of WSO
129%
29%
84%
76%
68%
Outer Islands
Ulithi
Rainfall (inches)
2.89
2.16
9.70
14.75
25.64
% of Normal
59%
28%
90%
63%
64%
Woleai*
Rainfall (inches)
9.26
6.96
5.00*
17.26*
28.15*
% of Normal
84%
57%
38%
37%*
45%*
* Estimated (19-20 June data missing)

Climate Outlook: Since Yap State is located in the western side of Micronesia, a westward shift of basin tropical cyclone activity and also of the western North Pacific monsoon will not substantially affect the rainfall or the typical distribution of tropical cyclones in the region. Near normal rainfall is anticipated for all islands of Yap State for at least the remainder of 2010 and probably through the next dry season. Similarly, the odds of gale-force winds or greater from a tropical cyclone on Yap Island or any of its northern atolls will be near normal.

Predicted rainfall for Yap State from July 2010 through June 2011 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Yap and Ulithi
Woleai
July - September 2010
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)
95%
(39.13 inches)
95%
(38.29 inches)
October - December 2010
(End of Next Rainy Season)
100% 110%
January - March 2011
(Heart of Next Dry Season)
95% 100%
April - June 2010
(Onset of Next Rainy Season)
100% 100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: August 12 2010 00:49:47 GMT

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