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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 3


Palau Flag Republic of Palau: All recording locations throughout the Republic of Palau were relatively dry during the first half of 2010, with the months of February and March being particularly dry (less than 4 inches in each of these months at the WSO Koror). 2010 First Half rainfall totals were about two-thirds of normal, while 2nd Quarter totals edged closer to normal at most locations. Nekken Forestry reported the most rain (63.28 inches), and the WSO Koror had the least amount of rain (40.58 inches). During El Niño, the Republic of Palau is often one of the first locations in Micronesia to experience below-normal rainfall. This did not happen, and Palau remained wet through the end of 2009. Then in the 1st Quarter of 2010, dry conditions became established, and continued through June.

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2010

Station   April May June 2nd Qtr
1st Half
Koror WSO
Rainfall (inches)
6.62
9.68
10.35
26.65
40.58
% of Normal
76%
81%
60%
70%
62%
Nekken
Rainfall (inches)
9.13
12.32
14.04
35.49
63.28
% of Normal
105%
103%
81%
94%
96%
International
Airport
Rainfall (inches)
9.36
8.41
12.60
30.37
49.24
% of Normal
108%
70%
73%
80%
75%
Peleliu
Rainfall (inches)
7.30
10.35
9.24
26.89
41.43
% of Normal
84%
86%
54%
71%
63%

Climate Outlook: The distribution of rainfall on Palau during the next few months will still be affected by the waning El Niño. It has already been quite dry throughout Palau in the first three months of the year. During May, rainfall normally increases in Palau, and the months of June and July are typically the wettest of the year. The steep increase of rainfall normally experienced in May and June was delayed. Rainfall should rebound to normal during July and continue to be near normal thereafter. Tropical cyclone influence on Palau should be near normal for the remainder of 2010. Two or three episodes of gusty winds and heavy showers associated with tropical cyclones passing to the north are likely, with the greatest risk of these events during September through December.

Forecast rainfall for Palau from July 2010 through June 2011 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
July - September 2010
110%
(47.42 inches)
October - December 2010
120%
January - March 2011
110%
April - June 2011
120%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: August 12 2010 00:49:51 GMT

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