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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 3


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: Kosrae is typically one of Micronesia's wettest locations. Sometimes it is overtaken by Palikir on Pohnpei Island as the highest observed rainfall total in Micronesia. During the first half of 2010, it was relatively dry on Kosrae, with February being particularly dry. The airport's first half of 2010 total of 82.41 inches was 76% of normal, and was exceeded by Palikir's chart-topping rainfall of 111.50 inches for the same time period. Other Kosrae recording sites (Tofol, Utwa and the Nautilus Hotel) were also relatively dry during the first half of 2010. Normal monthly rainfall values at Kosrae are typically between 17 and 20 inches for all months of the year, with the months of March through June on the high end of this range, and the other months closer to the lower end of this range. During the first half of 2010, only one month (April) had rainfall in excess of 20 inches.

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2010

Station  
April
May
June
2nd Qtr
1st Half
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (Inches)
23.82
11.92
13.80
49.54
82.41
% of Normal
110%
63%
73%
83%
76%
Utwa
Rainfall (Inches)
27.59
14.11
15.09
56.79
93.79
% of WSO
127%
75%
79%
96%
86%
Nautilus Hotel
Rainfall (Inches)
26.35
11.30
13.19
50.84
85.58
% of WSO
122%
60%
69%
86%
79%
Tofol
Rainfall (Inches)
21.12
15.02
14.81
50.95
78.30
% of WSO
98%
80%
78%
86%
72%


Climate Outlook: For the next several months, persistent trade winds should dominate in Kosrae and throughout eastern Micronesia. This is typically associated with near-normal rainfall. Although the first half of 2010 was drier than normal, it is anticipated that the rainfall for the next several months will be near normal. No adverse tropical cyclone activity is expected for Kosrae State during the remaining months of 2010.

Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from July 2010 through June 2011 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
July - September 2009
95%
(48.17 inches)
October - December 2009
100%
January - March 2010
100%
April - June 2010
120%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: August 12 2010 00:49:50 GMT

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