Figure 3: CCA Cross-Validation Skill in JAS, ASO, and SON 2010 seasons for (a) mean sea level deviations and (b) maximum sea level deviations.

In general terms, these forecasts are thought to be of useful (but poor) skill if the CCA cross-validation value lies between 0.3 and 0.4. Higher skills correspond to a greater expected accuracy of the forecasts. Skill levels greater than 0.4 and 0.6 are thought to be fair and good, respectively, while skill levels greater than 0.7 are thought to be very good.


 

 

Figure 4 (below). A comparison of forecast versus observed average seasonal sea level deviation for the previous season (April-May-June 2010).


Sea Level Deviation


* Forecast quality is a measure of the expected CCA cross-validation skill. In general terms, these kinds of forecasts are thought to be of useful skill (but poor) skill if the CCA cross-validation value is between 0.3 ~ 0.4. Higher skills correspond to greater expected accuracy of the forecasts. Skill levels greater than 0.4 and 0.6 are thought to be fair and good, respectively, while skill levels greater than 0.7 are thought to be very good.