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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 3


American Samoa Flag American Samoa:  American Samoa has entered its dry season. After a very wet rainy season, the opening months of the current dry season saw below-normal rainfall values. Normal rainfall at Pago Pago exceeds 10 inches per month from October through April, and is less than 10 inches per month from May through September. Its driest month is typically July, with just over 6 inches. Gusty trade winds were reported over the past two months, and these will continue through September.

American Samoa Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2010

Station   April May June 2nd Qtr
1st Half
Pago Pago WSO
Rainfall (inches)
10.33
6.61
5.05
21.99
71.11
% of Normal
86%
67%
68%
75%
108%
A'asufou
Rainfall (inches)
12.01
16.79
26.75
55.55
N/A
% of Normal
66%
109%
237%
124%
N/A

Climate Outlook: American Samoa is now entering the heart of its dry season. Although the first two months of the dry season (May and June) were drier than normal, climate models favor near-normal to above-normal rainfall over the next three-month period. The next rainy season (Oct 2010 - Apr 2011) is currently anticipated to have near-normal rainfall with a normal or slightly reduced risk of a tropical cyclone. Anticipated La Niña conditions persisting into the fall of 2010 should favor tropical cyclone activity in the Coral Sea from northeast Australia across to Fiji.

Forecast rainfall for American Samoa from July 2010 through June 2011 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

July - September 2010
(Heart of Dry Season)
110%
(21.51 inches - Pago Pago)
October - December 2010
(Onset of Next Rainy Season)
100%
January - March 2011
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)
100%
April - June 2011
(Onset of Next Dry Season)
100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Page Last Modified: August 12 2010 00:49:46 GMT

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