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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 2


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia
Yap State: Annual rainfall totals for 2009 at all Yap Island locations were near normal, falling within roughly plus-or-minus 5 inches of 120 inches for the calendar year. The weather at Yap Island during 2009 was mostly unremarkable with few noteworthy events. During November, Yap Island and its outlying atoll to the northeast, Ulithi, were threatened by the large and intense Typhoon Nida. This typhoon moved almost precisely midway between Yap Island and Guam, sparing both islands of its damaging effects.

Rainfall amounts were drier than normal during the 1st Quarter of 2010, with the 11.73 inches at the Yap WSO coming in at 61% of the long-term average. On the morning of 23 March, Tropical Storm Omais passed close to the islands of Ulithi Atoll. This cyclone yielded some much-needed rainfall to the island, and no significant damage or injuries were reported from the storm. However, a catamaran sailboat was rammed into the pier on Mog Mog island during the height of gale force winds, stranding a family of four on the island until repairs were made.

Yap State Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2010 and Annual 2009

Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. 1st Qtr
Predicted
2009 Annual
Yap Island
Yap WSO
Rainfall (inches)
5.29
2.12
4.32
11.73
16.35
120.64
% of Normal
72%
35%
72%
61%
85%
100%
Dugor
Rainfall (inches)
4.50
2.22
4.26
11.78
16.35
123.39
% of WSO
60%
85%
103%
Gilman
Rainfall (inches)
5.17
2.16
5.04
12.37
16.35
128.63
% of WSO
64%
85%
107%
Luweech
Rainfall (inches)
5.50
2.02
4.26
11.78
16.35
121.48
% of WSO
101%
110%
101%
Maap
Rainfall (inches)
7.39
1.95
4.27
13.61
16.35
106.18
% of WSO
58%
85%
88%
North Fanif
Rainfall (inches)
4.19
1.26
5.66
11.11
16.35
117.55
% of WSO
58%
85%
98%
Rumung
Rainfall (inches)
7.96
2.06
6.50
16.52
16.35
112.28
% of WSO
86%
95%
94%
Tamil
Rainfall (inches)
4.12
2.03
5.07
11.22
16.35
119.28
% of WSO
58%
85%
99%
Outer Islands
Ulithi
Rainfall (inches)
3.52
1.66
5.71
10.89
14.03
N/A
% of Normal
57%
33%
113%
66%
85%
N/A
Woleai
Rainfall (inches)
5.89
1.04
3.82
10.75
20.98
85.21
% of Normal
55%
14%
46%
41%
80%
61%
Predictions for 1st Quarter 2010 made in 4th Quarter 2009 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: All locations on Yap Island, Fais, and Ulithi should have slightly below-average rainfall (80-90% of normal) for the next three months. Thereafter, normal rainfall amounts should return. Rainfall at Woleai and other atolls to the south and southeast (e.g., Ngulu, Euripik and Satawal) will return to normal sooner than those locations further north. These atolls should have normal rainfall by May. Tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific is expected to be near normal during 2010. The odds of damaging winds from a tropical cyclone on Yap Island or any of the state’s northern islands will be approximately 10 to 15 % (1-in-10 to 1-in-7) for the calendar year 2010, which represents normal risk.

Predicted rainfall for Yap State from April 2010 through March 2011is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Yap and Ulithi
Woleai
April - June 2010
(Onset of Rainy Season)
85%
(23.11inches)
90%
(32.63 inches)
July - September 2010
(Heart of Rainy Season)
95% 95%
October - December 2010
(End of Rainy Season)
100% 100%
January - March 2011
(Heart of Next Dry Season)
100% 100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Page Last Modified: May 29 2010 00:38:30 GMT

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