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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 2


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Pohnpei State: The majority of locations on Pohnpei Island and the atolls of Pohnpei State had near normal or slightly below normal rainfall during 2009. Nukuoro and Kapingamarangi were wetter than normal. Palikir topped the list of rainfall totals in Pohnpei State during 2009 with 194.41 inches, even though it was a bit below normal (95%) for that location. This was the wettest 2009 annual total recorded in Micronesia.

Rainfall was abundant in January and March 2010, with very dry weather during February. Pohnpei Island normally receives high rainfall (approximately 15 inches per month) year-round, with a brief let-up in February when the average falls to about 10 inches. This February, amounts were very low, with some locations on Pohnpei Island receiving less than 2 inches, and Nukuoro receiving only 0.18 inches. Stream flow on Pohnpei Island was briefly lowered during February, which caused some concern for water resources. During March, abundant rains returned to Pohnpei.

Pohnpei Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2010 and Annual 2009

Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. 1st Qtr
Predicted
2009 Annual
Pohnpei Island
Pohnpei WSO
Rainfall (inches)
8.16
1.83
23.94
33.93
31.69
167.72
% of Normal
62%
17%
177%
91%
85%
89%
Palikir*
Rainfall (inches)
11.87
3.90
28.37
44.14
34.42
194.41
% of Normal
84%
33%
194%
109%
85%
95%
Kolonia Airport **
Rainfall (inches)
6.14
1.50
19.96
27.60
26.07
156.75
% of Normal
57%
17%
179%
90%
85%
101%
Atolls of Pohnpei State
Nukuoro
Rainfall (inches)
16.39
0.18
15.19
31.76
30.68
171.83
% of Normal
139%
2%
112%
88%
85%
115%
Pingelap
Rainfall (inches)
19.01
1.70
17.89
38.60
33.14
132.34
% of Normal
154%
14%
123%
99%
85%
75%
Mwokilloa
Rainfall (inches)
15.36
1.91
10.68
27.95
26.11
147.57
% of Normal
143%
22%
96%
91%
85%
95%
Kapingamarangi
Rainfall (inches)
20.17
5.54
12.89
38.60
22.48
145.82
% of Normal
153%
32%
151%
116%
100%
133%
Predictions for 1st Quarter 2010 made in 4th Quarter 2009 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
* Palikir normal est. as 108% of WSO normal
** Airport normal est. as 86% of WSO normal

Climate Outlook:

In the weather pattern of persistent trade winds that has become established in Micronesia, the trade-wind trough sharpens and the zonal band of cloudiness associated with it causes increased rainfall on Pohnpei Island and the atolls that lie within the latitude bounds of 4º to 8º N. This is especially true for the months of April and May when Pohnpei Island experiences its highest monthly average rainfall. Near normal rainfall is anticipated on Pohnpei Island and the atolls of Pohnpei State for the next several months.

No typhoons or tropical storms are anticipated to adversely affect Pohnpei State during 2010, although several of the basin’s tropical cyclones may begin as depressions near Pohnpei. These will contribute to expected rainfall.

Forecast rainfall for Pohnpei State from April 2019 through March 2011 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Pohnpei Islands and Atolls Kapingamarangi
April - June 2010
95%
(50.74 inches)
100%
(31 inches)
July - September 2010
100% 100%
October - December 2010
100% 100%
January - March 2011
100% 100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: May 29 2010 00:38:29 GMT

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