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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 2


Palau Flag Republic of Palau: Rainfall was abundant throughout the Republic of Palau during 2009. The 170.09 inches at the WSO was 115% of normal. Continuing a pattern noted since the rain gage at the Palau International Airport was activated, the 2009 total was wetter there (187.82 inches) than at the WSO. Peleliu has a history of being slightly drier than the WSO, with 163.19 inches in 2009. During El Niño, the Republic of Palau is often one of the first locations in Micronesia to experience below normal rainfall. 2009 was an exception, and Palau remained wet through the end of the year.

Dry conditions became established in the 1st Quarter of 2010, as rainfall throughout most of Palau was below normal. The WSO and Peleliu received 50% (13.93 inches) and 52% (14.54 inches) of their normal values. Nekken 1st Quarter total, however, was close to normal (99%) due to a wet January.

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2010 and Annual 2009

Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. 1st Qtr
Predicted
2009 Annual
Koror WSO
Rainfall (inches)
6.88
3.61
13.72
13.93
25.19
170.89
% of Normal
64%
40%
42%
50%
85%
115%
Nekken*
Rainfall (inches)
17.20
2.48
8.11
27.79
25.19
169.20
% of Normal
161%
27%
98%
99%
85%
114%
International
Airport *
Rainfall (inches)
8.91
5.17
4.79
18.87
25.19
187.82
% of Normal
203%
69%
144%
67%
85%
127%
Peleliu*
Rainfall (inches)
9.12
1.90
3.52
14.54
25.19
163.19
% of Normal
85%
21%
43%
52%
85%
110%
Predictions for 1st Quarter 2010 made in 4th Quarter 2009 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: The distribution of rainfall on Palau during the next few months will still be affected by the current waning El Niño event. It has already been quite dry throughout Palau during the first three months of the year. During May, rainfall normally increases on Palau, and the months of June and July are typically the wettest of the year. This year, the steep increase of rainfall normally experienced in May and June may be delayed somewhat. Rainfall will, however, rebound to normal by July or August. Tropical cyclone influence on Palau should be near normal during both the early part of the 2010 cyclone season (April through June), and near the end of the year (late October through December). Though the basin as a whole is anticipated to experience a slow start in 2010, Palau could experience one episode of near-gale (25 to 35 mph) westerly wind associated with a north-passing tropical storm or tropical depression during May, June, or early July. Two or three such episodes of gusty winds and heavy showers are likely to occur during October through December. Because of its southerly location, Palau is not anticipated to experience a direct strike by a strong tropical storm or a typhoon.

Forecast rainfall for Palau from April 2010 through March 2011 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
April - June 2010
90%
(34.42 inches)

July - October 2010

100%
October - December 2010
100%
January -March 2011
100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Page Last Modified: May 29 2010 00:38:29 GMT

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