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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 2


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: Kosrae is typically one of Micronesia’s wettest locations. Its annual average of over 200 inches is high even by global comparison. For 2009, the 192.55 inches received at the Kosrae Airport was exceeded only by 194.41 inches at Palikir on Pohnpei Island. Though comparatively high to other locations, the Kosrae 2009 annual rainfall was actually slightly below normal.

Largely a result of a very dry February, the 2010 1st Quarter rainfall was below normal. Roughly 2 inches of rain was recorded across the island during February, which was an extremely rare event. In the Kosrae Airport climate data (going back to 1990), only four months have less rainfall than February 2010. An all-time low value of 0.25 inches occurred in February 1992, and the less than two inches was received in each of the first three months of 1998. Water resource managers began to worry during February 2010, but thankfully normal abundant rainfall returned in March.

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2010 and Annual 2009

Station  
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
1st Qtr
Predicted 2009 Annual
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (Inches)
12.87
2.24
17.76
32.87
39.53
192.55
% of Normal
89%
14%
95%
67%
80%
93%
Utwa
Rainfall (Inches)
17.42
1.50
18.08
37.00
39.53
178.68
% of WSO
121%
9%
97%
75%
80%
87%
Nautilus Hotel
Rainfall (Inches)
12.31
1.95
20.48
34.74
39.53
174.67
% of WSO
86%
12%
107%
70%
80%
85%
Tofol
Rainfall (Inches)
6.44
N/A
19.29
N/A
39.53
N/A
% of WSO
45%
N/A
103%
N/A
80%
N/A
Predictions for 1st Quarter 2010 made in 4th Quarter 2009 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: Similar to Pohnpei, the trade-wind trough produces abundant rainfall on Kosrae under persistent trade winds. The months of March through June, normally the wettest of the year, are anticipated to be near normal. Kosrae typically receives between 17 and 20 inches of rain for all months of the year, and is one of few places where 20-inch monthly rainfall totals are common. During 2010, there should be three or four months with rainfall in excess of 20 inches. For comparison, five months during 2008 and two months during 2009 met this condition. No adverse tropical cyclone activity is expected for Kosrae State during 2010.

Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from April 2010 through March 2011 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

April - June 2010

100%
(59.46 inches)

July - September 2010

100%

October - December 2010

100%

January - March 2011

100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI

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(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: May 29 2010 00:38:28 GMT

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