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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2010 Vol. 16 No. 2


American Samoa Flag American Samoa:  American Samoa has been very wet during its current rainy season. Between November 2009 and March 2010, Pago Pago received 150% of normal rainfall (93.16 inches). As anticipated, El Niño conditions caused South Pacific tropical cyclone activity to extend further east than normal. Four named tropical cyclones (Nisha, Oli, Rene, and Sarah) formed near or passed close to American Samoa. On the 12th of February, Tropical Cyclone Rene passed very close to the Manu’a island group of American Samoa. Winds approaching hurricane force damaged vegetation and homes in these islands. The three other cyclones and the monsoon surges that spawned them contributed to American Samoa’s recent copious rainfall. During March, the climate pattern shifted westward to a near normal state, with tropical cyclones near Fiji and in the Coral Sea. Rainfall in American Samoa dropped to 44% of normal (4.99 inches) in March.

American Samoa Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2010 and Annual 2009

Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. 1st Qtr
Predicted
2009 Annual
Pago Pago WSO
Rainfall (inches)
28.30
15.83
4.99
49.12
44.77
139.27
% of Normal
245%
124%
44%
134%
120%
114%
A'asufou
Rainfall (inches)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
% of Normal
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Predictions for 1st Quarter made in 4th Quarter 2009 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: American Samoa is now near the end of its rainy season (November through April). Nearly all climate models favor near normal to slightly less than normal rainfall at American Samoa for at least the next three months. From May through September American Samoa enters its typical dry season, and the rainfall should be near normal. We are cautiously optimistic that no further cyclone activity will adversely impact the islands of American Samoa in the next few months, as a trade-wind regime is expected to dominate the weather pattern.

Forecast rainfall for American Samoa from April 2010 through March 2011 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

April - June 2010
(Onset of Dry Season)
100%
(27.53 inches - Pago Pago)
July - September 2010
(Heart of Dry Season)
100%
October - December 2010
(Onset of Next Rainy Season)
100%
January - March 2011
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)
100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: May 20 2010 00:56:18 GMT

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