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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 4


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Yap State: July 2009 was a very wet month throughout most of Yap State. August was quite dry, and then during September an active monsoon accompanied by some tropical disturbances provided abundant rains. Despite abundant rains in July and September, the dry conditions of August resulted in a 3-month total that was slightly below normal at most locations on Yap Island.

On the morning of 30 September, the newly formed Typhoon Parma, made a direct hit on Ngulu Atoll causing some minor damage, but no deaths or injuries. Information obtained by a Yap main-island resident, and passed through Bruce Best at the UOG Telecommunications and Distance Education Office, was received shortly after the typhoon passage: “ … The storm did little damage on Yap [main island] … I spoke with a young man from Ngulu yesterday and he said … they are all O.K. All gathered in the men's house, and all O.K. Two houses were knocked down though. There will be a ship going to Ngulu this afternoon.”

Yap State Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2009

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr
Predicted
Yap Island
Yap WSO
Rainfall (inches)
17.57
7.76
16.61
41.94
45.31
% of Normal
121%
51%
123%
97%
110%
Dugor*
Rainfall (inches)
19.49
6.51
19.75
45.75
45.31
% of WSO
147%
45%
146%
106%
110%
Gilman*
Rainfall (inches)
19.53
10.53
14.82
44.88
45.31
% of WSO
147%
73%
110%
104%
110%
Luweech*
Rainfall (inches)
17.21
6.73
20.09
44.03
45.31
% of WSO
130%
47%
148%
101%
110%
Maap*
Rainfall (inches)
12.02
5.35
14.79
32.16
45.31
% of WSO
91%
37%
109%
74%
110%
North Fanif*
Rainfall (inches)
14.61
7.11
13.17
34.89
45.31
% of WSO
110%
49%
97%
80%
110%
Rumung*
Rainfall (inches)
14.24
7.28
16.01
37.53
45.31
% of WSO
107%
51%
118%
86%
110%
Tamil*
Rainfall (inches)
15.00
8.13
20.50
43.63
45.31
% of WSO
113%
56%
152%
100%
110%
Outer Islands
Ulithi
Rainfall (inches)
N/A
N/A
5.03**
N/A
45.31
% of Normal
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
110%
Woleai
Rainfall (inches)
7.56
4.08
4.32
15.96
41.19
% of Normal
76%
42%
38%
40%
100%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2009 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
* Long term normal is not established for these sites.
** New Observer Starts

Climate Outlook: Based on an expected continuation of the current tranquil weather pattern, rainfall should be near normal throughout most of Yap State for the next few months.

There is a slight risk (roughly a 5-10% chance) of a damaging tropical cyclone in Yap State or its northern atolls in November 2009 through January 2010. This risk is near normal.

Yap can be very dry in the first few months that follow El Niño, but severe conditions such as those occurring the first half of 1998 are not anticipated. However, the upcoming dry season will be slightly drier than normal and may extend through June of 2010. Residents of Yap should start considering precautionary water conservation methods in response to possible dry conditions more severe than anticipated.

Predicted rainfall for Yap State from October 2009 through September 2010 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Yap and Ulithi
Woleai
October - December 2009
(End of Next Rainy Season)
95%
(28.89 inches)
90%
(32.27 inches)
January - April 2010
(Onset of Next Dry Season)
85% 80%
May - June 2010
(End of Next Dry Season)
90% 85%
July - September 2010
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)
100%* 95%*

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 21:01:45 GMT

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