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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 4


PEAC CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

The PEAC outlook for tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin for the remainder of 2009 (November and December) is for enhanced activity, particularly within Micronesia. The anticipated distribution of tropical cyclones for the remainder of 2009 substantially increases the risk of a damaging tropical storm or typhoon at all islands located eastward of 140ºE. For example, Guam at 145ºE will experience an above-normal risk, and the RMI at 170ºE will have some risk (normally it has almost no risk) of a damaging tropical cyclone. The risk of a damaging tropical cyclone at Yap or Palau (both located to the west of 140ºE) will be close to normal. The upcoming hurricane season for American Samoa is also anticipated to be more active than normal (see island summaries for further details).


The PEAC forecast considers input from two seasonal outlooks for tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific basin: (1) The City University of Hong Kong Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, under the direction of Dr. J. C-L. Chan, and, (2) The Benfield Hazard Research Centre Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Research Group at University College London, UK, led by Dr Adam Lea and Professor Mark Saunders.



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Page Last Modified: August 04 2011 22:30:58 GMT

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