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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 4


RMI Flag Republic of the Marshall Islands: The rainfall throughout most of the atolls of the Republic of the Marshall Islands was below normal during the 3rd Quarter of 2009. The 3-month total of 32.36 inches at Majuro WSO, 88% of normal. Kwajalein received 94% of normal rainfall, while Wotje and Utirik were drier with only 73% and 75% of normally recorded values. Only Laura with 20.77 inches of rain received in September had an above normal 3rd Quarter rainfall total. Because we are in the wetter months of the year, the municipal water supply on Majuro remains adequate.

Republic of the Marshall Islands Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2009

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr
Predicted
RMI Central Atolls (6°N - 8°N)
Majuro WSO
Rainfall (inches)
9.12
8.05
15.19
32.36
36.32
% of Normal
70%
70%
122%
88%
100%
Laura*
Rainfall (inches)
7.02
8.79
20.77
40.59
36.32
% of Normal
54%
76%
167%
110%
100%
Arno*
Rainfall (inches)
6.15
9.32
6.39
21.86
36.32
% of Normal
47%
81%
51%
59%
100%
Alinglaplap*
Rainfall (inches)
8.61
9.25
13.31
31.17
36.32
% of Normal
73%
85%
110%
90%
100%
RMI Southern Atolls (South of 6 °N)
Jaluit*
Rainfall (inches)
6.34
6.54
13.09
25.97
36.32
% of Normal
58%
44%
67%
70%
100%
RMI Northern Atolls (North of 8°N)
Kwajalein
Rainfall (inches)
11.03
8.93
10.47
30.43
30.86
% of Normal
106%
88%
89%
94%
95%
Wotje*
Rainfall (inches)
11.54
5.10
5.92
22.56
30.86
% of Normal
116%
53%
53%
73%
95%
Uterik*
Rainfall (inches)
5.88
7.35
7.52
20.75
30.86
% of Normal
66%
86%
75%
75%
95%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2009 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
* Normal values are estimated based on WSO Majuro, Kwajalein and satellite-derived precipitation distribution.

Climate Outlook: The rainy season in the RMI extends through December, with the onset of dry season in January. Below normal rainfall is anticipated through April or May, especially in the northern atolls. Due to concern over these upcoming dry conditions, the UOG PEAC team provided an El Niño visit with Majuro water resource managers, the President of RMI, and the public. PEAC gives special thanks to Meteorologist in Charge, Mr. Reginald (Reggie) White for paving the way for a successful visit. Majuro residents, already living with some degree of water restrictions do not want to hear of future dry conditions; however, they are well-prepared to deal with the conditions.

At the end of some El Niño years, tropical cyclones affect the Marshall Islands (e.g., Typhoon Zelda in December 1991, Typhoon Axel in early January 1992, and Typhoon Paka in December 1997). There is a 10% risk that a tropical cyclone could pass through the RMI from November 2009 through January 2010. For ENSO-neutral years and La Niña years, the tropical cyclone risk is zero in the RMI.

Forecast rainfall for the Republic of the Marshall Islands from October 2009 through September 2010 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
S. of 6° N
6° N to 8° N
N. of 8° N 
October - December 2009
(Ens of Rains)
95%
(36.14 inches)
90%
(34.23 inches)
90%
(27.13 inches)
January - March 2010
(Dry Season)
90%
85%
80%
April - June 2010
(Onset of Rains)
95%
90%
90%
July - September 2010
(Rainy Season)
100%
100%
95%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 21:01:43 GMT

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