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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 4


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Pohnpei State: The 3rd Quarter rainfall was abundant everywhere across Pohnpei State, especially during July. The 38.63 inches of rainfall recorded at Palikir (twice the normal July value) was the wettest recorded value anywhere in Micronesia for the 3rd Quarter. The pattern of a very wet July, then a dry August, followed by a wet September was seen in many locations across Micronesia as a manifestation of the monsoon trough and the passage of several tropical disturbances through the region. For example, Kapingamarangi typically enters its 3-month dry season in August and even though August was typical of dry season conditions, a very wet July and abundant rainfall in September pushed the quarterly rainfall up to172% of normal.

Pohnpei Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2009

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr
Predicted
Pohnpei Island
Pohnpei WSO
Rainfall (inches)
23.83
13.93
16.18
53.54
48.03
% of Normal
130%
84%
101%
106%
100%
Palikir
Rainfall (inches)
38.63
8.84
17.50
64.57
50.98
% of Normal
194%
49%
100%
117%
100%
Kolonia Airport
Rainfall (inches)
19.19
16.46
17.48
53.13
42.88
% of Normal
127%
121%
132%
126%
100%
Atolls of Pohnpei State
Nukuoro
Rainfall (inches)
21.10
4.29
15.86
41.25
36.75
% of Normal
147%
38%
144%
112%
100%
Pingelap
Rainfall (inches)
11.52
6.15
18.86
36.33
45.76
% of Normal
72%
41%
125%
79%
100%
Mwokilloa
Rainfall (inches)
16.39
12.74
14.95
44.08
41.38
% of Normal
108%
93%
113%
105%
100%
Kapingamarangi
Rainfall (inches)
20.17
5.54
12.89
38.60
22.48
% of Normal
193%
90%
219%
172%
100%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2009 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
* Long term normal is not established for these sites

Climate Outlook:

Only the very strongest of El Niño events (e.g., 1982-83 and 1997-98) caused major water problems for Pohnpei. The current El Niño may cause the rainfall to be moderately below normal during January through March, with recovery to normal conditions expected thereafter.

The monsoon trough will episodically extend through the Pohnpei State in the last two months of this year bringing one or two periods of gusty west and southwest wind with rough seas on the western side of the island. These events may accompany the development of tropical disturbances north of Pohnpei Island that may move westward towards Guam and become cyclones. A slight risk (5%) exists for a direct strike of a tropical storm or typhoon of any Pohnpei location.

Forecast rainfall for Pohnpei State from October 2009 through September 2010 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Pohnpei Islands and Atolls Kapingamarangi
October - December 2009
120%
(45.29 inches)
100%
(26.11 inches)
January - March 2010
100% 100%
April - June 2010
100% 100%
July - September 2010
100% 100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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Honolulu, HI 96822
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Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 21:01:43 GMT

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