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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 4


Palau Flag Republic of Palau: The same general pattern of rainfall (wet July-dry August-wet September) which occurred throughout much of Micronesia also occurred for Palau. The monsoon trough was north of Palau and the winds were westerly for most of the 3rd Quarter. Several tropical cyclones en route to the Philippines passed north of Palau resulting in gusty westerly winds and periods of heavy showers. July was particularly wet, with over 30 inches of rain at the airport and at Nekken. Palikir on Pohnpei was the only other location in Micronesia to record over 30 inches in one month for this quarter.

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2009

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr
Predicted
Koror WSO
Rainfall (inches)
28.70
8.22
13.72
50.64
43.11
% of Normal
159%
55%
116%
113%
100%
Nekken*
Rainfall (inches)
30.10
10.07
16.41
56.58
43.11
% of Normal
177%
70%
141%
126%
100%
International
Airport *
Rainfall (inches)
34.55
10.04
16.80
61.39
43.11
% of Normal
203%
69%
144%
137%
100%
Peleliu*
Rainfall (inches)
28.00**
5.80
15.63
49.43
43.11
% of Normal
165%
40%
134%
110%
100%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2009 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
* Long term normal is not established for these sites
** Estimated

Climate Outlook: There is only a slight risk of a damaging tropical cyclone in the Republic of Palau in November or December of 2009. More likely, a typhoon passing near Guam will move to the north or northeast of Palau and bring yet another episode of gusty westerly winds and some heavy showers.

During an El Niño year, Palau is usually the first place in Micronesia to start drying out. The rainfall during the next few months should begin to fall moderately short of normal, but recover by April or May of 2010.

Forecast rainfall for Palau from October 2009 through October 2010 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
October - December 2009
95%
(35.49 inches)

January -March 2010

85%
April - June 2010
95%
July - October 2010
100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 21:01:42 GMT

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