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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 4


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: The pattern of a wet July, then a dry August followed by a wetter September was also seen at Kosrae. A particularly dry August drove the 3rd Quarter totals below normal.

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2009

Station  
Jul.
Aug.
Sep.
3rd Qtr
Predicted
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (Inches)
22.74
7.78
18.96
49.48
50.70
% of Normal
134%
47%
110%
98%
100%
Utwa*
Rainfall (Inches)
14.17
4.80
15.54
34.51
50.70
% of WSO
83%
29%
90%
68%
100%
Nautilus Hotel*
Rainfall (Inches)
18.08
8.20
13.36
39.64
50.70
% of WSO
106%
50%
78%
78%
100%
Tofol*
Rainfall (Inches)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
50.70
% of WSO
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
100%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2009 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
* Long term normal is not established for these sites

Climate Outlook: The UOG PEAC team (Dr. Mark Lander and Dr. Shahram Khosrowpanah) provided an El Niño outreach visit to Kosrae in early October. El Niño brings the potential for two or three very dry months at the beginning of 2010, and an elevated risk of further episoddes of gusty southwesterly wind in association with tropical disturbances for November and December. A direct strike to Kosrae by a tropical storm or typhoon is very rare, but tropical storms or typhoons passing well north of Kosrae are common in the latter months of an El Niño year. Monthly rainfall could fall moderately below normal for the next 4 to 5 months, then returning to near normal.

Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from October 2009 through September 2010 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

October - December 2009

90%
(41.94 inches)

January - March 2010

80%

April - June 2010

95%

July - September 2010

100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 21:01:41 GMT

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