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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 4


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Chuuk State:  Rainfall was abundant during the 3rd Quarter of 2009, with some large monthly and island variations. The east moving monsoon trough passed north of Pohnpei and Kosrae. In result, westerly winds and tropical disturbances brought some heavy and highly variable rainfall to every island in the Chuuk State. A general pattern of a wet July, a dry August, and a wet September was noted and 3-month rainfall totals ranged from 30 inches to 53 inches.

Chuuk State Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2009

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr Predicted
Chuuk Lagoon
Chuuk WSO
Rainfall (inches)
16.24
11.18
16.72
44.14
43.43
% of Normal
134%
77%
145%
116%
120%
Piis Panew*
Rainfall (inches)
10.53
9.55
9.92
30.00
43.43
% of WSO
87%
76%
86%
79%*
120%
Southern Mortlocks
Lukunoch*
Rainfall (inches)
19.03
2.92
12.53
34.48
39.81
% of WSO
157%
23%
109%
90%*
110%
Ettal*
Rainfall (inches)
30.02
8.64
13.89
52.55
39.81
% of WSO
248%
67%
121%
138%*
110%
Ta*
Rainfall (inches)
23.98
3.32
15.75
43.05
39.81
% of WSO
198%
26%
137%
113%*
110%
Namoluk*
Rainfall (inches)
17.64
5.49
7.46
30.59
39.81
% of WSO
146%
44%
65%
80%*
110%
Northern Atolls
Fananu*
Rainfall (inches)
20.89
10.36
11.59
42.84
39.81
% of WSO
173%
82%
101%
112%*
110%
Onoun*
Rainfall (inches)
16.60
16.38
13.07
46.05
39.81
% of WSO
137%
130%
114%
121%*
110%
Northern Mortlocks
Losap*
Rainfall (inches)
21.14
11.14
14.64
46.92
43.43
% of WSO
175%
88%
127%
123%*
120%
Nama*
Rainfall (inches)
12.89
11.11
13.27
37.27
43.43
% of WSO
106%
88%
115%
98%*
120%
Western Atolls
Polowat
Rainfall (inches)
15.27
6.55
10.87
32.69
32.57
% of WSO
109%
44%
82%
77%
90%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2009 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
* Long term normal is not established for these sites (% normal based on WSO).

Climate Outlook: Drier than normal conditions are expected for the upcoming dry season and could continue through May 2010. Therefore, residents should consider precautionary water conservation methods.

November 2009 through January 2010 brings an enhanced risk (25%) of a tropical cyclone passing through Chuuk. Episodes of heavy rain and gusty westerly winds will continue through December, after which northeast winds and drier conditions should prevail.

Predictions for Chuuk State from October 2009 through September 2010 are as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Chuuk Lagoon, and Northern Mortlocks
Polowat
Northern Atolls

Southern
Mortlocks

October - December 2009
100%
(35.55 inches)
90%
(32.00 inches)
95%
(35.77 inches)
100%
(35.55 inches)
January - March 2010
85%
80%
80%
90%
April - June 2010
90%
85%
85%
90%
July - September 2010
100%
100%
100%
100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 21:01:40 GMT

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