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Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 4


American Samoa Flag American Samoa:  The most newsworthy recent natural phenomenon in American Samoa was the deadly tsunami that struck on the morning of September 29. PEAC extends heartfelt condolences to all those who suffered loss in this tragedy. In terms of weather and climate, American Samoa passed through the heart of its dry season with more than normal rainfall (135%).

American Samoa Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2009

Station   Jul. Aug. Sep. 3rd Qtr
Predicted
Pago Pago WSO
Rainfall (inches)
9.96
10.41
6.28
26.65
18.57
% of Normal
156%
155%
94%
135%
95%
A'asufou
Rainfall (inches)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
% of Normal
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2009 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.

Climate Outlook: Computer forecasts and a consensus of outlooks from several regional meteorological centers indicate that rainfall in American Samoa is likely to be slightly above normal for the next few months as the rainy season becomes established.

The rainy season and the hurricane season of 2009-2010 in the American Samoa region is about to begin. Anticipated atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with El Niño will favor enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the region of American Samoa. Low level westerly wind anomalies will likely enhance the typical summer excursions of the Australian Northwest Monsoon into areas east of the International Date Line. An active monsoon promotes tropical cyclone activity. In addition to several episodes of gusty northwesterly winds in American Samoa over the course of its upcoming+ rainy season (December 2009 through April 2010), one or two tropical cyclones should pass close enough to the islands to bring offshore gales and high surf. The threat of a direct strike by a hurricane at some location within American Samoa (on the order of 15-20%), must be taken seriously this coming cyclone season.

Forecast rainfall for American Samoa from October 2009 through October 2010 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

October - December 2009
(Onset of Next Rainy Season)
120%
(41.5 inches - Pago Pago)
January - March 2010
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)
120%
April - May 2010
(Onset of Next Rainy Season)
100%
June - October 2010
(Heart of Next Dry Season)
90%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
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Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 21:01:46 GMT

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