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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 3


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Yap State: Yap Island and the outer islands of Yap State were among the few locations to receive above normal rainfall during the first half of 2009. The six month rainfall total was roughly 50 inches at the Yap WSO, and nearly all other Yap State locations recorded just over 100% of their respective normal values. The WSO Yap experienced high month-to-month rainfall variability during the first half of 2009, with rainfall totals ranging from 15.07 inches (277% of normal) in February to 3.16 inches (51% of normal) in March. Several tropical disturbances passed through Yap State during May, June and early July of 2009 contributing abundant rainfall to most locations in Yap State and also throughout the Republic of Palau. While still drier than normal through the 2nd Quarter of 2009, Woleai has received enough rainfall to start rebounding from last year’s extremely dry conditions.

Yap State Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter 2009

Station   April May June 2nd Qtr
1st Half
Yap Island
Yap WSO
Rainfall (inches)
11.68
6.43
8.48
26.59
53.42
% of Normal
206%
71%
67%
97%
114%
Dugor*
Rainfall (inches)
9.51
7.47
12.16
29.14
51.45
% of Normal
170%
92%
90%
106%
110%
Gilman*
Rainfall (inches)
16.87
5.95
10.48
33.30
59.10
% of Normal
302%
73%
78%
121%
126%
Luweech*
Rainfall (inches)
9.94
7.89
7.34
25.17
48.02
% of Normal
178%
97%
55%
91%
103%
Maap*
Rainfall (inches)
8.01
6.50
9.50
24.01
46.22
% of Normal
144%
80%
71%
87%
99%
North Fanif*
Rainfall (inches)
9.65
6.44
10.16
26.25
52.13
% of Normal
173%
79%
75%
95%
111%
Rumung*
Rainfall (inches)
9.97
6.02
9.77
25.76
51.05
% of Normal
179%
74%
73%
94%
109%
Tamil*
Rainfall (inches)
4.14
5.95
10.92
21.01
48.49
% of Normal
74%
73%
81%
76%
104%
Outer Islands
Ulithi
Rainfall (inches)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
% of Normal
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Woleai
Rainfall (inches)
12.25
10.46
9.29
32.00
47.25
% of Normal
111%
86%
71%
88%
75%
* Long term normal is not established for these sites.

Climate Outlook: All islands of Yap State should remain wet for the next three months (the heart of the rainy season), and should receive adequate rainfall through the end of the year. Tropical cyclone activity across Micronesia is expected to be much higher than it was during the very quiet 2008 season. During August through December, 2 or 3 typhoons should pass to the north of Yap Island and Ulithi producing gusty westerly winds and hazardous seas in the island waters. The odds of damaging winds from a tropical cyclone on Yap or any of its northern atolls will be approximately 10- 15% for the remainder of 2009, which represents a slightly higher risk than normal.

Predicted rainfall for Yap State from July 2009 through June 2010 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Yap and Ulithi
Woleai
July - September 2009
(Heart of Next Rainy Season)
120%
(49.43 inches)
100%
(40.30 inches)
October - December 2009
(End of Next Rainy Season)
100% 100%
January - March 2010
(Onset of Next Dry Season)
90% 90%
April - June 2010
(End of Next Dry Season)
90%* 90%*

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 22:10:34 GMT

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