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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 3


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Pohnpei State: Most locations on Pohnpei Island and the atolls of Pohnpei State were slightly drier than normal (80-90%) during the first half of 2009. The State’s driest conditions occurred on the eastern atolls of Mwoakilloa and Pingelap. Located closer to the equator, Nukuoro and Kapingamarangi were very wet, with six-month rainfall totals of 101.42 inches (130%) and 75.78 inches (115%), respectively. The 101.42 inches of rain at Nukuoro during the first half of 2009 was second only to the 101.47 inches recorded at the Kosrae airport, which was the wettest Micronesian location during the first half of 2009.

Pohnpei Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter 2009

Station   April May June 2nd Qtr
1st Half
Pohnpei Island
Pohnpei WSO
Rainfall (inches)
15.85
15.75
9.28
40.88
76.45
% of Normal
96%
82%
54%
78%
85%
Palikir
Rainfall (inches)
19.45
14.89
11.02
45.36
80.75
% of Normal
110%
72%
60%
80%
83%
Kolonia Airport
Rainfall (inches)
17.30
13.10
9.64
40.04
69.92
% of Normal
128%
84%
69%
93%
94%
Atolls of Pohnpei State
Nukuoro
Rainfall (inches)
10.69
14.59
16.45
41.73
101.42
% of Normal
71%
99%
135%
99%
130%
Pingelap
Rainfall (inches)
11.24
14.47
4.42
30.13
62.17
% of Normal
66%
85%
27%
60%
80%
Mwokilloa
Rainfall (inches)
17.05
10.71
5.32
33.08
67.63
% of Normal
114%
77%
44%
79%
87%
Kapingamarangi
Rainfall (inches)
10.93
14.60
15.81
40.34
75.78
% of Normal
80%
141%
204%
129%
115%
* Long term normal is not established for these sites

Climate Outlook: In response to the developing El Niño, rainfall over the next 6 months is expected to be highly variable, and there is potential for a heavy rainfall event to cause minor flooding and an elevated risk of mudslides. For the remainder of 2009, several of the basin’s tropical cyclones will begin their lives as disturbances in the region of Pohnpei State. During the months of October, November and December, one or two of these disturbances may develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm close enough to Pohnpei Island to bring gusty southwest winds to that island and the outer atolls. While damaging effects on Pohnpei from a tropical storm or typhoon are not likely, El Niño increases the chances for this to happen.

Forecast rainfall for Pohnpei State from July 2009 through June 2010 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Pohnpei Islands and Atolls Kapingamarangi
July - September 2009
100%
(48.03 inches)
100%
(22.70 inches)
October - December 2009
120% 100%
January - March 2010
100% 100%
April - June 2010
90% 90%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 22:10:31 GMT

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