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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 3


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: The rainfall at Kosrae during the first half of 2009 was near normal. Typically one of Micronesia’s wettest locations, the 101.47 inches at the Kosrae Airport during the first half of the year was the highest official value seen throughout the region. As seen in most locations in the eastern half of Micronesia, June was drier than April or May.

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter 2009

Station  
April
May
June
2nd Qtr
1st Half
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (Inches)
21.63
15.73
14.53
51.89
101.47
% of Normal
100%
84%
76%
87%
93%
Utwa*
Rainfall (Inches)
20.91
14.42
N/A
N/A
N/A
% of WSO
97%
77%
N/A
N/A
N/A
Nautilus Hotel*
Rainfall (Inches)
20.37
13.68
10.90
44.95
86.80
% of WSO
94%
73%
57%
76%
80%
Tofol*
Rainfall (Inches)
20.97
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
% of WSO
97%
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
* Long term normal is not established for these sites

Climate Outlook: The persistent easterly winds that dominated the flow in eastern Micronesia for the past two years should give way to a more variable wind pattern as El Niño brings the monsoon trough and tropical disturbances into the region. Normal monthly rainfall for Kosrae is typically between 17 and 20 inches for all months of the year. Rainfall for the next few months should be near normal, although month-to-month rainfall variability may become greater as the weather pattern becomes more active. In the final three months of the year, a tropical cyclone may form near Kosrae State bringing heavy rains, gusty southwesterly winds, and rough seas to island waters. Southwesterly winds may bring rough seas to the west and southwest side of the island.

Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from July 2009 through June 2009 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
July - September 2009
100%
(50.70 inches)
October - December 2009
110%
January - March 2010
95%
April - June 2010
95%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
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Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 22:10:29 GMT

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