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Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 3


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Chuuk State:  Rainfall amounts during the first half of 2009 were near normal to slightly below normal throughout Chuuk State. A tendency for higher rainfall totals at the more southerly atolls, and lower rainfall totals at the northern atolls (e.g., Fananuand Onoun) was observed. Ettal was the wettest of the Chuuk recording stations, with a 2nd Quarter 2009 rainfall total of 42.44 inches (117% of normal) and a 1st half 2009 total of 61.06 inches (99% of normal). The two driest Chuuk locations during the first half of 2009 were Fananu and Onoun in the northern atolls. On average, locations in Chuuk State receive about 12 inches of rain in each of the months April, May and June. In a pattern noted from Chuuk State eastward through the RMI, June was very dry. The weather was generally tranquil throughout Chuuk State during the first half of 2009 with no unusually heavy rains or strong winds

Chuuk State Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter 2009

Station   April May June 2st Qtr 1st Half
Chuuk Lagoon
Chuuk WSO
Rainfall (inches)
15.11
13.48
5.63
34.22
56.20
% of Normal
122%
110%
48%
94%
91%
Piis Panew*
Rainfall (inches)
9.40
5.01
1.39
15.80
24.11
% of Normal
82%
38%
13%
44%
39%
Southern Mortlocks
Lukunoch*
Rainfall (inches)
10.68
11.55
5.00
27.23
51.96
% of Normal
94%
88%
45%
75%
84%
Ettal*
Rainfall (inches)
16.80
14.99
10.65
42.44
61.06
% of Normal
147%
115%
96%
117%
99%
Ta*
Rainfall (inches)
15.36
8.01
11.74
35.11
59.11
% of Normal
135%
61%
106%
97%
97%
Namoluk*
Rainfall (inches)
12.11
12.83
9.82
34.76
55.41
% of Normal
106%
98%
89%
96%
90%
Northern Atolls
Fananu*
Rainfall (inches)
7.30
6.07
7.23
20.60
36.24
% of Normal
64%
46%
65%
57%
59%
Onoun*
Rainfall (inches)
9.31
8.53
4.86
22.70
41.38
% of Normal
82%
65%
44%
63%
67%
Northern Mortlocks
Losap*
Rainfall (inches)
11.19
10.16
8.51
29.86
47.09
% of Normal
98%
78%
77%
82%
77%
Nama*
Rainfall (inches)
16.50
15.50
5.14
36.24
55.13
% of Normal
145%
119%
46%
100%
90%
Western Atolls
Polowat
Rainfall (inches)
9.58
9.52
7.36
26.46
37.48
% of Normal
160%
106%
59%
96%
78%
* Long term normal is not established for these sites (% normal based on WSO).

Climate Outlook: The weather over the next few months should be more active than it has been in recent years, and rainfall should remain abundant across Chuuk State as the monsoon trough extends into the region. The island and atolls of Chuuk State may see some episodes of excessive rainfall (more than 3 inches in one day), and the potential for two or three episodes of gale force winds within the State. Mudslides are also a possibility on the high islands of Chuuk Lagoon.

The threat of a gales and high seas associated with a tropical storm or typhoon will be above normal for the remainder of 2009. Because of the onset of El Niño conditions, some of the tropical disturbances forming in Chuuk State or Pohnpei State could become named cyclones while still within regional waters.

Predictions for Chuuk State from July 2009 through June 2010 are as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Chuuk Lagoon, and Northern Mortlocks
Polowat
Northern Atolls
Southern
Mortlocks
July - September 2009
100%
(36.19 inches)
100%
(36.19 inches)
100%
(36.19 inches)
110%
(39.81 inches)
October - December 2009
120%
100%
120%
120%
January - March 2010
95%
95%
90%
100%
April - June 2010
90%*
90%*
90%*
90%*

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 22:10:28 GMT

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