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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 2


PEAC CENTER TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK

The PEAC outlook for tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin for the 2009 typhoon season is for near normal activity within the whole basin, but some reduction still noted within Micronesia, particularly eastward of the Marianas. The anticipated distribution of tropical cyclones for 2009 reduces the risk of a damaging tropical storm or typhoon at all islands located eastward of 145ºE. For example, Guam at 145ºE will experience a slightly below normal risk, and the RMI at 170ºE will have almost no risk of a damaging tropical cyclone. The risk of a damaging tropical cyclone at Yap or Palau (both located to the west of 140ºE) will be near normal, with two periods of elevated risk: one in May through early July, and the other period of highest risk in the fall months of October through December. The hurricane season for American Samoa is nearly over, and no further activity is anticipated in the region until the next cyclone season begins. The Central Pacific hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30; a Tropical Weather Outlook for the central North Pacific (from 140ºW to 180) will be issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center on June 1.


The PEAC forecast considers input from two seasonal outlooks for tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific basin: (1) The City University of Hong Kong Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, under the direction of Dr. J. C-L. Chan, and, (2) The Benfield Hazard Research Centre Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Research Group at University College London, UK, led by Dr Adam Lea and Professor Mark Saunders.



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Page Last Modified: August 04 2011 22:36:18 GMT

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