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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 2


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Pohnpei State: The 1st Quarter rainfall was generally near normal across Pohnpei State, with all locations on Pohnpei Island recording 3-month totals between 25.88 inches (at Kolonia airport) and 35.57 inches (at the WSO). The only location within Pohnpei State that was substantially wetter than normal was the island of Nukuoro, which recorded 59.69 inches of rain for the 1st Quarter of 2009 (166% of normal).

Pohnpei Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2009

Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. 1st Qtr
Predicted
Pohnpei Island
Pohnpei WSO
Rainfall (inches)
10.83
12.23
12.51
35.57
36.26
% of Normal
83%
113%
92%
95%
100%
Palikir
Rainfall (inches)
11.91
10.53
12.95
35.39
39.76
% of Normal
N/A
N/A
N/A
89%
100%
Kolonia Airport
Rainfall (inches)
8.62
7.59
9.67
25.88
30.45
% of Normal
N/A
N/A
N/A
85%
100%
Atolls of Pohnpei State
Nukuoro
Rainfall (inches)
13.81
20.04
25.84
59.69
35.96
% of Normal
118%
190%
190%
166%
100%
Pingelap
Rainfall (inches)
8.35
11.84
11.85
32.04
39.07
% of Normal
68%
97%
98%
82%
100%
Mwokilloa
Rainfall (inches)
9.32
8.76
13.37
34.55
33.87
% of Normal
85%
94%
85%
102%
100%
Kapingamarangi
Rainfall (inches)
7.06
18.57
9.81
35.44
34.75
% of Normal
68%
181%
71%
102%
100%
Predictions made in 4th Quarter 2008 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
* Long term normal is not established for these sites

Climate Outlook: Based on a the gradual transition of the Pacific basin climate from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, a tropical storm or typhoon is very unlikely anywhere in Pohnpei State through the remainder of 2009. A weather pattern featuring light easterly winds should be accompanied by near normal rainfall for the foreseeable future. As was the case in the spring of 2008, the rainfall during the spring months of 2009 (April, May and June) could be quite wet once again, especially at Sapwafik (Ngetik) and Nukuoro.

Forecast rainfall for Pohnpei State from April 2009 through March 2010 is as follows:

Inclusive Period

% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Pohnpei Islands and Atolls Kapingamarangi
April - June 2009
120%
(64.09 inches)
100%
(31.28 inches)
July - September 2009
100% 100%
October - December 2009
100% 100%
January - March 2010
100% 100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 22:44:40 GMT

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