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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 2


Palau Flag Republic of Palau: Rainfall was above normal in Palau during the 1st Quarter of 2009, due in large measure to a very wet February. The general pattern of above normal rainfall during the 1st Quarter, with a very wet February, was seen at both Palau and at Yap. Typical of La Niña, rainfall was more widespread in the western portions of Micronesia, and more narrowly focused on the ITCZ cloud band further east.

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2009

Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. 1st Qtr
Predicted
Koror WSO
Rainfall (inches)
9.23
14.67
8.48
32.38
29.64
% of Normal
86%
160%
103%
116%
100%
Nekken*
Rainfall (inches)
11.96
14.23
8.11
34.30
29.64
% of Normal
107%
147%
92%
122%
100%
International
Airport *
Rainfall (inches)
10.52
16.07
5.85
32.44
29.64
% of Normal
94%
166%
67%
116%
100%
Peleliu*
Rainfall (inches)
13.93
17.72
2.23
33.88
29.64
% of Normal
124%
184%
25%
121%
100%
Predictions made in 4th Quarter 2008 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
* Long term normal is not established for these sites

Climate Outlook: As the Pacific basin transitions from La Niña to ENSO-neutral, rainfall should continue to be abundant in Palau. Tropical cyclone activity in 2009 should still have a westward bias, but will not be as dramatic as seen during the past two years. The anticipated weather patterns for the next few months elevates the risk for Palau to experience gusty westerly winds in the southern periphery of a tropical storm passing to its north. One or two such tropical storms may pass north of Palau in the next three months. Between July and October, southwest winds should persist over Palau as the western Pacific monsoon becomes well-established in that area. Abundant rainfall is expected through August, before a small respite in September when the monsoon trough moves to its most northern position and typhoons pass well to the north of Palau. From October through the end of the calendar year, as the monsoon trough sinks slowly southward, active disturbances and developing tropical cyclones along the trough should keep Palau wet. Palau is far enough south, however, to avoid substantial risk of a direct hit by a tropical cyclone. In addition to the spring risk, one or two additional episodes of westerly gales and rough seas from a tropical storm or typhoon passing to the north of Palau are likely from October to December.

Forecast rainfall for Palau from April 2009 through March 2010 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

April - June 2009

110%
(42.09 inches)

July - September 2009

100%

October - December 2009

120%

January - March 2010

100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 22:44:40 GMT

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