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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 2


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: Although many of the islands of Micronesia eastward of the longitude of Kosrae experienced dry conditions in the 1st Quarter of 2009, Kosrae is at a latitude that places it within the narrow east-west zone of rain clouds known as the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). This nearly basin-long cloud band becomes sharper and more concentrated in areas west of the date line when the low level winds there are easterly. La Niña accentuates the easterly winds in this region, and during such times, one can see abundant rainfall in islands within the band (e.g., Kosrae), and drought at islands that are north of the band (e.g., Kwajalein). During the 1st Quarter of 2009, the rainfall on Kosrae was mostly near normal. The 3-month total rainfall was approximately 50 inches, except on the eastern shore of the island at the Nautilus Hotel where the 1st Quarter total was only 34.09 inches.

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2009

Station  
Jan.
Feb.
Mar.
1st Qtr
Predicted
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (Inches)
17.06
19.72
12.80
49.58
49.41
% of Normal
119%
121%
69%
100%
110%
Utwa*
Rainfall (Inches)
12.83
23.71
13.24
49.78
49.41
% of WSO
89%
145%
71%
101%
100%
Nautilus Hotel*
Rainfall (Inches)
14.72
13.40
5.97
34.09
49.41
% of WSO
102%
82%
30%
69%
110%
Tofol*
Rainfall (Inches)
15.94
22.66
15.15
53.75
49.41
% of WSO
111%
139%
81%
109%
110%
Predictions made in 4th Quarter 2008 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
* Long term normal is not established for these sites

Climate Outlook: The risk of a damaging tropical storm or typhoon is very unlikely at Kosrae during all of 2009. Based on the slow transition of the Pacific basin climate from La Niña to ENSO-neutral, rainfall at Kosrae should remain near normal for the foreseeable future.

Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from April 2009 through March 2009 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

April - June 2009

110%
(65.41 inches)

July - September 2009

100%

October - December 2009

100%

January - March 2010

100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
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Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 22:44:41 GMT

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