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Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 2


FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Chuuk State:  Most of Chuuk State was relatively dry during the 1st Quarter of 2009, with all rain recording sites throughout the state receiving below normal rainfall totals. In a continued pattern of tranquil weather that has persisted for over two years, nearly all monthly totals at all stations were less than 10 inches. Dry conditions have not caused any serious problems within Chuuk State. However, the repeated sea inundation at many locations in Chuuk State this past December continues to be the main climate issue. Although high surf episodes are over for now, the effects of the salt water washed into taro patches and other low-lying areas in Chuuk will take many more months to recover from.

Chuuk State Rainfall Summary 1st Quarter 2009

Station   Jan. Feb. Mar. 1st Qtr Predicted
Chuuk Lagoon
Chuuk WSO
Rainfall (inches)
9.69
8.62
3.67
21.98
25.77
% of Normal
91%
139%
44%
87%
100%
Piis Panew*
Rainfall (inches)
2.05
3.84
2.42
8.31
25.77
% of Normal
19%
63%
27%
33%
100%
Southern Mortlocks
Lukunoch*
Rainfall (inches)

6.98

12.46
5.29
24.73
28.35
% of Normal
65%
203%
59%
98%
110%
Ettal*
Rainfall (inches)
6.05
9.51
3.06
18.62
28.35
% of Normal
57%
155%
34%
74%
110%
Ta*
Rainfall (inches)
7.75
9.63
6.62
24.00
28.35
% of Normal
73%
157%
74%
93%
110%
Northern Atolls
Fananu*
Rainfall (inches)
3.87
5.52
6.25
15.64
25.77
% of Normal
36%
90%
70%
62%
100%
Onoun*
Rainfall (inches)
7.42
7.82
3.44
18.68
25.77
% of Normal
69%
128%
38%
74%
100%
Northern Mortlocks
Losap*
Rainfall (inches)
5.14
5.68
6.41
17.23
25.77
% of Normal
48%
93%
72%
68%
100%
Nama*
Rainfall (inches)
8.74
6.25
3.90
18.89
25.77
% of Normal
82%
102%
44%
75%
100%
Namoluk*
Rainfall (inches)
7.21
9.25
4.19
20.65
25.77
% of Normal
68%
151%
47%
80%
100%
Western Atolls
Polowat
Rainfall (inches)
4.36
4.08
2.58
11.02
23.19
% of Normal
54%
65%
41%
54%
90%
Predictions made in 4th Quarter 2008 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
* Long term normal is not established for these sites (% normal based on WSO).

Climate Outlook: Based on a slow relaxation of the pattern of anomalous low-level easterly wind, the risk of a tropical storm or typhoon is very unlikely anywhere in Chuuk State through September of 2009. In the months of October through December 2009, the monsoon trough should push eastward into Micronesia to near its normal location. Many of the tropical cyclones of the western North Pacific basin form near the eastern end of the monsoon trough, which is the reason that the area around Chuuk and Pohnpei typically sees an abundance of tropical disturbances, but not many full-fledged tropical storms or typhoons. The rainfall throughout Chuuk State should be abundant for the foreseeable future.

Forecast rainfall for Chuuk State from April 2009 through March 2010 is as follows:

Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
Chuuk Lagoon, and Northern Mortlocks
Polowat
Northern Atolls

Southern
Mortlocks

April - June 2009
120%
(42.65 inches)
90%
(31.99 inches)
100%
(35.54 inches)
110%
(39.09 inches)
July - September 2009
120%
90%
120%
110%
October - December 2009
110%
100%
100%
100%
January - March 2010
100%
100%
100%
100%

Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI



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Page Last Modified: June 01 2010 22:44:44 GMT

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