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Seasonal Rainfall and Sea Level Outlooks


PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is an expirimental consenus forecast, produced monthly for 14 stations within Hawaii and the USAPI. The PEAC Outlook uses data from the following 7 models: UKMO, NASA NSIPP, ECMWF, IRICP, NCEP Constructed Analog, NCEP Coupled Model, and UH/IPRC PRIDE.

The PEAC Seasonal Rainfall Outlook is a probabalistic forecast displayed in tercile form (3 categories). The three categories represent the chances of an event falling into the "Below Average", "Near Average" and "Above Average" categories, respectively. For example, a seasonal rainfall forecast of 20:30:50 should be interpreted as follows:

There is a 20% chance of "Below Average" rainfall for the season; a 30% chance of "Near Average" rainfall for the season; and a 50% chance of "Above Average" rainfall for the season.

For more information on terciles, click here.


PEAC Seasonal Sea Level Outlook

The PEAC Seasonal Sea Level Outlook is produced monthly using available data from the UH Sea Level Center, and consists of two parts:

i) The Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA)-based forecast of seasonal mean and maximum sea level (deviations from average); and,

ii) The observed monthly sea level deviations from the previous season.

Seasonal Tide Predictions (for Guam, Kwajalein and Pago Pago) and Seasonal Extreme Sea Level Values for 20-year and 100-year Return Periods are calculated quarterly (NOT monthly), and can be found on the Sea Level page in the most recent edition of the Pacific ENSO Update newsletter.



Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Center
c/o NOAA NWS - Weather Forecast Office Honolulu
2525 Correa Road, suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
(808) 956-2324

Web Master's email: peac@noaa.gov
Page Last Modified: August 03 2011 23:25:04 GMT

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