000 AXGM70 PGUM 020322 DGTGUM PMZ171-172-173-174-160200- YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 130 PM CHST THU DEC 2 2010 ...VERY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST NEAR THE EQUATOR... .SYNOPSIS... LA NINA CONDITIONS HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BUT ARE STILL CLASSIFIED AS MODERATE TO STRONG. THE EQUATORIAL WEDGE OF COLD OCEAN WATER IS STILL PUSHING WESTWARD TO AROUND 150E. WHILE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO OCCUR NORTH OF 3N...STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATED AREAS CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR. THE COVERAGE OF THE SUBSIDENCE AREA GENERALLY COINCIDES WITH THE SHAPE AND EXTENT OF THE EQUATORIAL COLD WATER WEDGE. THUS...DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXTEND FROM ABOUT 150E...EASTWARD TO AT LEAST THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THIS AREA INCLUDES KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL...NAURU AND THE ATOLLS OF WESTERN KIRIBATI. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE EQUATORIAL DROUGHT AREA IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SHRINK. THIS WILL FIRST OCCUR IN THE WEST BETWEEN 150E AND 160E. THIS PROCESS WILL REQUIRE A FEW WEEKS BUT RAIN EVENTS WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE FREQUENT. ON 17 AND 18 NOVEMBER..KAPINGAMARANGI DID RECEIVE AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN. HOWEVER...THIS RAIN EVENT HAS BEEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... WHILE ADEQUATE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF POHNPEI STATE...THE WEATHER HAS REMAINED VERY DRY AT KAPINGAMARANGI OVER THE LAST FIVE MONTHS. COMPUTER MODELS AND PAST CLIMATE HISTORY INDICATE THAT THIS DRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 4 WEEKS. WE ENCOURAGE CONTINUED IMPLEMENTATION OF STRINGENT WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES ON KAPINGAMARANGI. FRESH WATER SHOULD BE USED ONLY FOR DRINKING AND COOKING. SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT RAINFALL AT NUKUORO HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT. THE NUKUORO WEATHER OBSERVER IS NOW BACK ON THE ISLAND...SO RAIN MEASUREMENTS SHOULD BECOME AVAILABLE. RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED ON KAPINGAMARANGI FOR THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO. ON 15 NOVEMBER...THE POHNPEI DISASTER CONTROL OFFICE INDICATED THAT THE CATCHMENTS ON KAPINGAMARANGI WERE OUT OF WATER. THEN ON 17 AND 18 NOVEMBER...KAPINGAMARANGI DID RECEIVE AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN. THIS LIKELY ADDED SEVERAL GALLONS TO TENS OF GALLONS OF WATER TO THE CATCHMENTS. IN ADDITION...WELLS AND SOLAR STILLS ARE ALSO PRODUCING SUFFICIENT WATER FOR DRINKING AND COOKING. SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS MAY HAVE OCCURRED ON KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL AS A RESULT OF THE DROUGHT. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AND SOME FOOD ASSISTANCE WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IF DAMAGE TO THE PLANTS OR FRUIT IS IRREVERSIBLE. CLIMATE SUMMARY... THE EQUATORIAL DRY WEDGE ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA PENETRATED FAR ENOUGH WEST TO SERIOUSLY AFFECT KAPINGAMARANGI. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE ATOLL..BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE DRY WEDGE IS BEGINNING TO SHRINK. THIS PROCESS WILL BE SLOW...AND WILL FIRST OCCUR AT THE WESTERN END NEAR 150E TO 155E. NAURU AND WESTERN KIRIBATI WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY...POSSIBLY INTO MARCH. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS JULY...AUGUST...SEPTEMBER...OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF POHNPEI STATE AND FOR THE KOSRAE AIRPORT. JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV NOV TOTAL PERCENT & AVG NORMAL (1-30) POHNPEI 14.00 14.21 14.49 12.22 14.23 97% POHNPEI AVERAGE 16.72 16.37 14.94 16.30 14.74 NUKUORO 16.92 13.39 4.33 9.06 ~9.50 90% NUKUORO AVERAGE 12.98 12.49 10.14 10.63 10.50 KAPINGAMARANGI 4.51 3.16 0.72 1.10 2.07 25% KAPINGAMARANGI AV 10.43 6.16 5.89 4.19 8.19 KOSRAE 18.69 10.55 6.94 13.80 ~11.50 86% KOSRAE AVERAGE 15.06 14.34 14.22 10.77 13.31 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY ACROSS EQUATORIAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC EAST OF 150E. CLEAR DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE KAPINGAMARANGI MIGHT RECEIVE ONLY 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 10 DAYS RESPECTIVELY. MODELS DO INDICATE SOME RELIEF FOR NUKUORO WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. POHNPEI AND THE OTHER ISLANDS OF POHNPEI STATE SHOULD RECEIVE UP TO ABOUT 2 INCHES. THE PREVIOUS COMPUTER MODEL 10-DAY RAINFALL PREDICTIONS WERE PRETTY ACCURATE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT DID OVER-ESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF RAIN FOR KAPINGAMARANGI. HISTORICAL DATA SUGGESTS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT KAPINGAMARANGI ARE LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH MOST OF DECEMBER AND ARE POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY INTO MARCH. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE SUBSIDENCE AREA THAT IS BRINGING DROUGHT TO KAPINGAMARANGI IS SLOWLY SHRINKING AND THAT INCREASED MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE ATOLL FROM THE WEST AND THE NORTH. KOSRAE STATE... FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR KOSRAE. THE ISLAND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HIGH WEEK TO WEEK RAINFALL VARIABILITY IN THE COMING WEEKS. OTHER IMPACTS... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT EQUATORIAL AREAS TO THE EAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI...SUCH AS NAURU AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC ISLANDS OF KIRIBATI...TARAWA AND ARORAE...WILL REMAIN VERY DRY WITH LESS THAN 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. BUTARITARI IN KIRIBATI COULD SEE PERHAPS 0.75 INCH IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. HISTORICAL DATA SUGGESTS DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN NAURU AND MOST OF WESTERN KIRIBATI ARE LIKELY TO LAST INTO JANUARY AND ARE POSSIBLE INTO MARCH. THE US CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM INDICATES THAT POHNPEI STATE IS NO LONGER IN A CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA. THE CONDITIONS IN YAP STATE AND CHUUK STATE CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...BUT THESE STATES REMAIN IN A WATCH AREA. THE FSM SHOULD MONITOR THE NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND WARNINGS AT: HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (SMALL CASE) NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN TWO WEEKS ON THURSDAY THE 16TH OF DECEMBER...OR SOONER IF NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/ PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT POHNPEI...THE FSM OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OEEM...IN POHNPEI FSM...THE STATE DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE AT POHNPEI. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) $$ GUARD/MCELROY/SIMPSON