000 AXGM70 PGUM 210420 DGTGUM PMZ171-172-173-174-280200- YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 220 PM CHST THU OCT 21 2010 ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS... .SYNOPSIS... LA NINA CONDITIONS REMAINED STRONG INTO MID OCTOBER WITH THE EQUATORIAL WEDGE OF COLD OCEAN WATER CONTINUING TO PUSH WESTWARD TO 150E. WHILE HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO OCCUR NORTH OF 5N...STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES AREAS CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR. THE COVERAGE OF THE SUBSIDENCE AREA GENERALLY COINCIDES WITH THE SHAPE AND EXTENT OF THE EQUATORIAL COLD WATER WEDGE. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS EXTEND FROM ABOUT 150E...EASTWARD TO AT LEAST THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THIS AREA INCLUDES KAPINGAMARANGI.. NAURU AND THE ISLANDS OF WESTERN KIRIBATI. IN ADDITION...THE SUN IS STILL NEARLY OVERHEAD THE EQUATOR AND THIS WILL WORSEN ISLAND HEAT AND DRYNESS. SOMEWHAT DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO SPREAD NORTHWARD TO NUKUORO IN POHNPEI STATE AND TO KOSRAE. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... ADEQUATE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF POHNPEI STATE...HOWEVER.. RAINFALL HAS DECREASED AT KAPINGAMARANGI OVER THE LAST FIVE MONTHS. COMPUTER MODELS AND PAST CLIMATE HISTORY INDICATE THAT THIS DRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE MONTHS. WE ENCOURAGE CONTINUED IMPLEMENTATION OF STRINGENT WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. FRESH WATER SHOULD BE USED ONLY FOR DRINKING AND COOKING. DESPITE SOME SHORT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER...RAINFALL AT NUKUORO AND KOSRAE HAS BEEN NEAR NORMAL DURING MOST OF OCTOBER. RAINFALL AT THESE LOCATIONS MAY SHOW LARGE WEEK TO WEEK VARIABILITY...BUT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR THE CATCHMENT OF DRINKING AND COOKING WATER AND FOR RECHARGE OF THE WATER LENS AND WELL WATER. RAINFALL SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED ON KAPINGAMARANGI AND NUKUORO FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS COULD OCCUR AT KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL AS FRESH WATER SOURCES DIMINISH. SOME FOOD ASSISTANCE WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IF DAMAGE TO PLANTS BECOMES IRREVERSIBLE. CLIMATE SUMMARY... THE EQUATORIAL DRY WEDGE ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA HAS PENETRATED FAR ENOUGH WEST TO SERIOUSLY AFFECT KAPINGAMARANGI. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS JUNE...JULY...AUGUST...SEPTEMBER AND THE FIRST 3 WEEKS OF OCTOBER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF POHNPEI STATE AND FOR THE KOSRAE AIRPORT. JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT OCT TOTAL AVERAGE (1-20) (1-31) POHNPEI 13.17 14.00 14.21 14.49 7.45 POHNPEI AVERAGE 17.06 16.72 16.37 14.94 6.84 16.30 NUKUORO 9.89 16.92 13.39 4.33 6.74 NUKUORO AVERAGE 12.50 12.98 12.49 10.14 6.86 10.63 KAPINGAMARANGI 6.60 4.51 3.16 0.72 1.10 KAPINGAMARANGI AVG 7.25 10.43 6.16 5.89 3.11 4.82 KOSRAE 13.80 18.69 10.55 6.94 8.53 KOSRAE AVERAGE 14.71 15.06 14.34 14.22 6.95 10.77 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... WEATHER HAS BECOME VERY DRY ACROSS EQUATORIAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC EAST OF 150E. THE SUN IS NEARLY OVERHEAD AT THE EQUATOR AND THAT WILL ENHANCE DRYNESS AT KAPINGAMARANGI FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL HELP TO MODERATE THE HEAT BUT BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SOIL AND FOLIAGE. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE 0.60 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR KAPINGAMARANGI...ABOUT 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR NUKUORO...AND AROUND 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN FOR POHNPEI AND THE OTHER ISLANDS OF POHNPEI STATE. POHNPEI ISLAND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HIGH MONTH TO MONTH VARIABILITY FOR THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO. HISTORICAL DATA SUGGESTS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THESE LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO LAST INTO DECEMBER AND ARE POSSIBLE INTO MARCH. KOSRAE STATE... FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE AROUND 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES OF RAIN FOR KOSRAE. THE ISLAND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS WITH HIGH MONTH TO MONTH RAINFALL VARIABILITY...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO. OTHER IMPACTS... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT EQUATORIAL AREAS EAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI...SUCH AS NAURU AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC ISLANDS OF KIRIBATI (TARAWA...AND ARONAE) WILL HAVE LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. BUTARITARI IN KIRIBATI SHOULD HAVE BETWEEN 0.5-0.75 INCHES. THE US CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM INDICATES THAT POHNPEI AND NUKUORO ARE NO LONGER IN A CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES. THE CONDITIONS IN YAP STATE HAVE ALSO IMPROVED. THE FSM SHOULD MONITOR THE NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND WARNINGS AT: HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (SMALL CASE) NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY THE 28TH OF OCTOBER...OR SOONER IF NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/ PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT POHNPEI...THE FSM OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OEEM...IN POHNPEI FSM...THE STATE DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE AT POHNPEI. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) $$ GUARD