000 AXGM70 PGUM 090248 DGTGUM PMZ173-160300- POHNPEI- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1230 PM CHST THU SEP 9 2010 ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL IN POHNPEI STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS... .SYNOPSIS... LA NINA CONDITIONS HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER RECENT WEEKS WITH AN EQUATORIAL WEDGE OF COLD OCEAN WATER NOW PUSHING WESTWARD TO 150E. WHILE HEAVY RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 4N...STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE EQUATORIAL AREAS...GENERALLY COINCIDING WITH THE COLD WATER WEDGE. THUS...DRY CONDITIONS EXTEND FROM 150E...EASTWARD TO AT LEAST THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THIS AREA INCLUDES KAPINGAMARANGI...NAURU AND WESTERN KIRIBATI. IN ADDITION...THE SUN IS NEARLY OVERHEAD AND THIS WILL WORSEN ISLAND HEAT AND DRYNESS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... ADEQUATE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF POHNPEI STATE...HOWEVER...RAINFALL HAS BEEN DECREASING AT KAPINGAMARANGI OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS DRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE MONTHS. WE ENCOURAGE IMPLEMENTATION OF STRINGENT WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. FRESH WATER SHOULD BE USED ONLY FOR DRINKING AND COOKING. DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS COULD OCCUR AS FRESH WATER DIMINISHES. IF DAMAGE BECOMES IRREVERSIBLE...SOME FOOD ASSISTANCE MIGHT BE NECESSARY. CLIMATE SUMMARY... THE EQUATORIAL DRY WEDGE ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA ONLY RECENTLY PENETRATED FAR ENOUGH WEST TO SERIOUSLY AFFECT KAPINGAMARANGI. THIS DELAYED THE DROUGHT ONSET. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS MAY...JUNE...JULY...AUGUST AND SOME SEPTEMBER RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF POHNPEI STATE. MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP SEP TOTAL NORMAL (1-9) POHNPEI 13.72 13.17 14.00 14.21 4.13 14.94 NUKUORO 16.11 9.89 16.92 13.39 1.58 10.14 KAPINGAMARANGI 12.20 6.60 4.51 3.16 0.00 5.89 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... WEATHER HAS BECOME DRY ACROSS EQUATORIAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC EAST OF 150E. REMEMBER THAT THE SUN IS OVERHEAD DURING THESE MONTHS. TRADE WINDS WILL HELP TO MODERATE THE HEAT BUT BRIGHT SUNSHINE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CAUSE DRY CONDITIONS FOR BOTH SOIL AND FOLIAGE. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... COMPUTER MODELS GENERALLY INDICATE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS FOR KAPINGAMARANGI...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR NUKUORO DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS AND MORE THAN 3 INCHES FOR POHNPEI FOR THE SAME PERIOD. OTHER IMPACTS... THE US CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM INDICATES THAT POHNPEI AND NUKUORO ARE IN A CORAL BLEACHING WATCH AREA. THE FSM SHOULD MONITOR THE NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AT: HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (SMALL CASE) NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON THURSDAY THE 16TH OF SEPTEMBER...OR SOONER IF NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AND/OR YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OR DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICES FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/ PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT POHNPEI...THE FSM OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OEEM...IN POHNPEI FSM...THE STATE DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE AT POHNPEI. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) $$ GUARD/ZIOBRO