000 AXGM70 PGUM 242227 DGTGUM GUZ001>004-PMZ161-171>174-181-260600- GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 235 PM CHST THU JUN 24 2010 ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE OVER FOR MICRONESIA AND THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT... .SYNOPSIS... UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING RAINFALL ACROSS MICRONESIA ARE FINALLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ISLANDS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED FOR ANY OF THE MICRONESIAN ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS AND SAIPAN AND TINIAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO CONSERVE WATER UNTIL DRINKING WATER SOURCES ARE PARTIALLY RECHARGED. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND WEAKENED TRADE WINDS SHOULD REDUCE THE HEAT AND DRYNESS EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS. THE EARLIER EL NINO EVENT HAS TRANSITIONED INTO AN ENSO-NEUTRAL STATUS. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A LA NINA WATCH...AND LA NINA CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. IF THIS OCCURS...IT WILL MINIMIZE MONSOON AND TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY OVER MICRONESIA. IN THE MEANTIME...ISLANDS WEST OF 155 EAST LONGITUDE COULD SEE A FEW EPISODES OF MONSOON ACTIVITY AND EARLY TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. THE EL NINO-RELATED DROUGHT HAS BEEN MOST SEVERE FOR ISLANDS FARTHEST NORTH FROM THE EQUATOR...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS. ALSO...VERY DRY CONDITIONS IN FEBRUARY AND EARLY MARCH DAMAGED SOME OF THE SUBSISTENCE FOOD CROPS ON MANY OF THE SOUTHERN MICRONESIAN ISLANDS...AND SOME FOOD SHORTAGES MAY STILL BE OCCURRING. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... GUAM AND CNMI... DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED FOR THE MARIANA ISLANDS. THIS RECENT DROUGHT...ALTHOUGH SHORTER IN DURATION THAN NORMAL...WAS ONE OF THE DRIEST PERIODS IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE LAST 30 YEARS. THE GRASS FIRE DANGER ON GUAM AND ON ROTA HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT BUT STILL REMAINS HIGH ON TINIAN AND SAIPAN. TODAY'S KEETCH-BYNAM DROUGHT INDEX (KDBI) FOR GUAM IS 695...DOWN FROM A HIGH EARLIER THIS WEEK OF 779...WHICH WAS THE THIRD HIGHEST VALUE SINCE 1980. SOME WATER WELLS ON GUAM AND IN THE CNMI HAVE STARTED TO BECOME DRY...ESPECIALLY AT LOW TIDE...BECAUSE THE WATER TABLE HAS RECEDED. REDUCED FLOW OF THE UGUM RIVER IN SOUTHERN GUAM AND REDUCED WATER LEVELS AT FENA RESERVOIR SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE. MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS GUAM ON WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. AGRICULTURE HAS BEEN WITHERING IN SEVERAL PARTS OF SAIPAN DUE TO LACK OF RAIN WHERE IRRIGATION IS NOT POSSIBLE. RAINFALL FOR AGRICULTURE SHOULD IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU... ADEQUATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS PALAU...AND NEAR-NORMAL RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE. EMERGENCY MANAGERS IN PALAU PREVIOUSLY ADVISED SOME CONSERVATION...BUT ALL LOCATIONS HAVE ADEQUATE WATER SUPPLIES NOW...AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... YAP STATE... ADEQUATE RAINFALL HAS RETURNED TO THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF YAP STATE...AND THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF YAP STATE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING ADEQUATE SHOWERS FOR A FEW MONTHS. EARLIER REPORTS FROM THE LOW ISLANDS OF YAP STATE INDICATE THAT FOOD CROPS SUFFERED FROM LACK OF RAIN IN FEBRUARY AND MARCH. DAMAGE TO CROPS MAY NOT BE REVERSIBLE AND FOOD ASSISTANCE MAY BE NECESSARY. IN THE LONGER TERM FOR YAP STATE...A MORE NORMAL PATTERN OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. CHUUK STATE... RAINFALL HAS BEEN ADEQUATE FOR CHUUK STATE DURING THE LAST FEW WEEKS...AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT NEAR-SEASONAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA. FOOD CROPS ON THE LOW CHUUK STATE ISLANDS LIKELY SUFFERED FROM LACK OF RAIN DURING FEBRUARY AND EARLY MARCH. DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS MAY NOT BE REVERSIBLE AND FOOD ASSISTANCE MAY BE NECESSARY. POHNPEI STATE... ADEQUATE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF POHNPEI STATE. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS NEAR-SEASONAL RAINFALL PRODUCING PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE. RIVER FLOW SHOULD BE ADEQUATE ON POHNPEI ISLAND...AND FRESH WATER AQUIFERS ON LOW ISLANDS SHOULD HAVE RECOVERED. CORAL BLEACHING WAS BEGINNING TO SPREAD NORTH OF THE EQUATOR...AND KAPINGAMARANGI HAS BEEN IN A CORAL BLEACHING WARNING AREA AND NUKUORO REMAINS IN A CORAL BLEACHING WATCH AREA. THE POHNPEI DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE INDICATED THAT THE DROUGHT DAMAGED SUBSISTENCE FOOD CROPS SUCH AS TARO...BREADFRUIT AND BANANA...TAPIOCA AND COCONUT ON POHNPEI ISLAND AND ON SOME OUTER ISLANDS. CROP CULTIVATION SHOULD NO LONGER NEED TO MOVE TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON POHNPEI. DAMAGE TO CROPS COULD BE IRREVERSIBLE AND FOOD ASSISTANCE MIGHT STILL BE NECESSARY FOR SOME LOW ISLANDS. KOSRAE STATE... RAINFALL HAS BEEN ADEQUATE FOR KOSRAE STATE AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE NEAR-SEASONAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE. THE EARLIER LACK OF RAINFALL MAY HAVE DAMAGED SOME FOOD CROPS...BUT WATER AND FOOD RESOURCES SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR KOSRAE. RIVER AND STREAM FLOW SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL. THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... MAJURO OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT THE AQUIFERS OF SEVERAL NORTHEASTERN ISLANDS BECAME SALTY IN MAY. SOME PEOPLE ON MALOELAP MOVED TO NEARBY ISLANDS WITH BETTER WATER RESOURCES. RECENT CHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERNS SHOULD PROVIDE ADEQUATE RAINFALL FOR DRINKING AND COOKING. SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE WELCOME RAINFALL AT TIMES FOR NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. ROOFTOPS SHOULD BE CLEANED OFF TO ALLOW FOR CLEAN RUNOFF FOR CATCHMENT TANKS. THE RUNWAY RESERVOIR AT MAJURO CURRENTLY HAS 23 MILLION GALLONS OF WATER. AS A RESULT...MAJURO WILL LIKELY RETURN TO A NORMAL WATER DISTRIBUTION SCHEDULE. FRESH WATER AQUIFERS OF THE SOUTHERN ATOLLS SHOULD NOW GRADUALLY RECOVER. FOOD CROPS ON SOME OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS MAY HAVE SUFFERED FROM LACK OF RAIN. DAMAGE TO CROPS MIGHT BE IRREVERSIBLE AND FOOD ASSISTANCE MIGHT BE NECESSARY. CLIMATE SUMMARY... THE DRY PHASE OF EL NINO...WHICH NORMALLY BEGINS IN OCTOBER OR NOVEMBER...DID NOT START UNTIL DECEMBER OR JANUARY AT MOST LOCATIONS. THIS DELAYED THE DROUGHT ONSET. AREAS NORTH OF 8 TO 10 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE HAVE FINALLY SEEN SOME RELIEF OF THE DROUGHT. THE NORTHEASTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...ALONG WITH SAIPAN AND TINIAN IN THE MARIANA ISLANDS WILL BE THE DRIEST LOCATIONS IN MICRONESIA FOR ANOTHER WEEK OR SO...BUT RAINFALL FREQUENCY...DURATION AND AMOUNT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE. THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS FEBRUARY...MARCH...APRIL...MAY AND SOME OF JUNE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR VARIOUS LOCATIONS IN MICRONESIA. FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JUNE (01-23) NORMAL GUAM 1.06 4.40 2.16 0.74 2.45 5.78 SAIPAN INTL AP 0.89 2.41 2.35 0.73 1.64 3.38 KOROR 3.61 3.44 6.62 9.68 8.54 17.54 YAP 2.12 4.32 7.11 2.96 7.45 13.46 ULITHI 1.66 5.71 2.89 2.16 7.37 10.79 WOLEAI 1.04 3.82 9.26 6.96 13.11 WENO CHUUK 2.46 7.35 12.46 9.08 8.92 12.82 LUKUNOR 0.29 13.90 20.04 10.94 12.24 POLOWAT 1.19 7.01 8.24 6.32 10.82 ONOUN 1.50 7.86 5.24 3.37 ~10.00 FANANU 1.58 6.65 10.45 3.73 ~9.00 POHNPEI 1.83 23.94 22.76 13.72 8.36 17.06 PINGELAP 1.70 17.89 9.66 6.16 13.41 NUKUORO 0.18 15.19 17.38 16.11 12.50 KAPINGAMARANGI 3.28 20.93 17.99 12.17 7.25 KOSRAE 2.24 17.76 23.85 11.92 14.71 KOSRAE NAUTILUS 1.95 20.48 26.35 11.30 ~14.71 MAJURO 3.74 9.73 9.41 2.26 14.45 11.09 KWAJALEIN 1.20 3.86 1.72 2.88 10.31 8.86 JALUIT 2.36 13.03 6.93 7.88 12.42 MILI 2.20 8.79 7.59 2.27 10.64 AILINGLAPLAP 0.69 3.82 2.21 1.95 11.03 WOTJE 1.39 0.77 0.12 1.29 4.86 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... A WET WEATHER PATTERN HAS EXPANDED NORTHWARD AND ENCOMPASSES MOST OF MICRONESIA. THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS ARE AT THE NORTHER FRINGES AND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LESS RAINFALL THAN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE OVER FOR ALL OF MICRONESIA. WESTWARD MOVING UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES CENTERED NORTH OF MICRONESIA AROUND 20N ARE NOW PRODUCING MORE NORMAL RAINFALL PATTERNS. THIS PATTERN IS ABOUT A MONTH TO SIX WEEKS LATE. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... GUAM AND CNMI... MAY RAINFALL WAS FAR BELOW NORMAL...15% FOR GUAM AND 25% FOR SAIPAN. JUNE HAS BECOME LESS DRY AND A MORE NORMAL RAINFALL PATTERN HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AREA WILL RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU... MAY RAINFALL WAS 86% OF NORMAL AND ADEQUATE. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER AFFECTING THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE PALAU AREA DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 3 TO 4 INCHES TOTAL DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE PASSING NORTH OF PALAU DURING LATE JUNE AND EARLY JULY. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR ANY ISLANDS OF THE FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA. YAP STATE... THE MONTH OF MAY WAS VERY DRY WITH ONLY 36% OF NORMAL RAINFALL ON YAP. JUNE WEATHER HAS BECOME WETTER ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF YAP STATE. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR YAP DURING LATE JUNE AND EARLY JULY. CHUUK STATE... NORMAL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED SO FAR THIS JUNE...AND THE TRADE-WIND TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NEAR-SEASONAL RAINFALL IN THE COMING MONTHS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS FOR MOST OF CHUUK STATE. POHNPEI STATE... AMPLE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED FOR POHNPEI SO FAR THIS JUNE. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. KAPINGAMARANGI WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WETTER CONDITIONS MOVE NORTHWARD...AND ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THERE DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. KOSRAE STATE... THE TRADE-WIND TROUGH HAS MOVED A LITTLE NORTH OF KOSRAE...BUT KOSRAE STATE SHOULD RECEIVE ADEQUATE RAINFALL IN THE COMING MONTHS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 10 DAYS. THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... WELCOME SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED FOR NORTHERN ISLANDS DURING THE LAST WEEK...WHILE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS HAVE FALLEN ON MOST SOUTHERN ISLANDS. MAJURO AND THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS... RAINFALL HAS BEEN AMPLE FOR MAJURO AND SOUTHERN ATOLLS DURING JUNE. THE MAJURO RUNWAY RESERVOIR HAS AROUND 23 MILLION GALLONS OF FRESH WATER. NORMAL WATER CONSERVATION SHOULD BE OBSERVED AS RECOMMENDED BY LOCAL AUTHORITIES. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS FOR MAJURO AND THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS. KWAJALEIN AND THE NORTHERN ISLANDS... CONDITIONS STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS SINCE MANY NORTHERN ATOLLS REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 10 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. JUNE RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED...AND KWAJALEIN FOR INSTANCE HAS RECEIVED AMPLE RAINFALL. WIND PATTERNS HAVE CHANGED AND BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRODUCING SHOWERS DURING THE COMING WEEKS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 10 DAYS FOR KWAJALEIN AND THE NORTHERN ATOLLS. DRINKING WATER SUPPLIES AND HEALTH CONCERNS WILL REMAIN CRITICAL ON SOME NORTHERN ISLANDS UNTIL SHOWERS BECOME MORE REGULAR. WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE STILL RECOMMENDED FOR MOST NORTHERN ISLANDS. OTHER IMPACTS... THE U.S. CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM INDICATES THAT CORAL BLEACHING IS POSSIBLE IN WESTERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA...AND MAY AFFECT THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...SOUTHERN CHUUK STATE...YAP STATE...THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN POHNPEI STATE ISLANDS. SEA LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO RISE IN MICRONESIA AND THAT SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE BLEACHING. NEVERTHELESS...THE FSM...THE CNMI...GUAM AND PALAU SHOULD MONITOR THE NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AT: HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (SMALL CASE) NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS IS THE FINAL STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AND/OR YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OR DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICES FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/ PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML GUAM HOMELAND SECURITY...OFFICE OF CIVIL DEFENSE... HTTP://WWW.GUAMHS.ORG/MAIN/ CNMI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE...OFFICE OF THE GOVERNOR... HTTP://WWW.CNMIEMO.GOV.MP/ NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...GUAM HOMELAND SECURITY/OFFICE OF CIVIL DEFENSE...THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE...WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AT PALAU...YAP ...CHUUK...POHNPEI...AND MAJURO...THE FSM OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OEEM...IN POHNPEI FSM...THE STATE DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICES AT YAP...POHNPEI...CHUUK...AND KOSRAE...THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND COORDINATION OFFICE...NEMCO...IN THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...AND THE NATIONAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE...NEMO...IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) $$ GUARD/SIMPSON