000 AXGM70 PGUM 280249 DGTGUM PMZ171-172-173-174-050600- YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 130 PM CHST THU APR 28 2011 ...KAPINGAMARANGI WILL LIKELY RECEIVE MORE AND MORE SHOWERS IN THE COMING WEEKS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE... THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT SCHEDULED FOR MAY 5TH COULD BE THE LAST OF THIS EVENT UNLESS CONDITIONS DETERIORATE UNEXPECTEDLY. SYNOPSIS... THE LA NINA PATTERN CONTINUED ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC BUT DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING. THE SUBSIDENCE THAT SUPPRESSED RAINFALL FOR KAPINGAMARANGI HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH MORE PERSISTENT PERIODS OF UPWARD MOTION CONDUCIVE TO WETTER WEATHER. RAINFALL IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR AND EASTWARD OF 160E WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...BUT THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AS WELL. THE SEASONAL TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF EASTERN MICRONESIA AND THAT WILL HELP PRODUCE RAINFALL FOR ALL OF POHNPEI STATE IN ADDITION TO KAPINGAMARANGI. KOSRAE HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL...BUT MORE RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE NOW WITH ESTABLISHMENT OF THE TRADE-WIND TROUGH. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS LA NINA EVENT WILL PERSIST INTO MAY AND THEN TREND TOWARD NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN JUNE. THE EQUATORIAL DROUGHT AREA IS SLOWLY SHRINKING AND RAINFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE. KAPINGAMARANGI HAS RECEIVED 6.33 INCHES (52% OF NORMAL) FOR APRIL SO FAR AND RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE COMING WEEKS. WE WILL MONITOR THE AREA ONE MORE WEEK BEFORE CANCELING THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. SERIOUS DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM 160E TO BEYOND THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THIS AREA INCLUDES NAURU AND THE ATOLLS OF WESTERN KIRIBATI. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS AS MORE SHOWERS ARRIVE ALONG THE EQUATOR. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... ADEQUATE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF POHNPEI STATE AND KOSRAE STATE. SOME RELIEF HAS DEVELOPED FOR KAPINGAMARANGI...AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE ATOLL COULD STILL EXPERIENCE HIGH WEEK-TO-WEEK RAINFALL VARIABILITY DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. WE ENCOURAGE CONTINUED IMPLEMENTATION OF WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES ON KAPINGAMARANGI. FRESH WATER SHOULD MOSTLY BE USED FOR DRINKING AND COOKING. RAINFALL AT NUKUORO HAS BEEN MORE THAN ADEQUATE AND SHOULD REMAIN SO. OTHER ISLANDS OF POHNPEI STATE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING SUFFICIENT RAINFALL. DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS HAS LIKELY OCCURRED ON KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL AND THE OTHER DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE MAY BE NECESSARY IF DAMAGE TO PLANTS AND FRUITS IS IRREVERSIBLE. CATCHMENTS SHOULD STILL BE MONITORED FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... DROUGHT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG THE EQUATOR AROUND NAURU AND WESTERN KIRIBATI INTO MAY. THE EQUATORIAL DRY WEDGE ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA STILL PERSISTS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT THESE AREAS...BUT IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY. WHILE THE SHRINKING PROCESS REMAINS SLOW...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE IN THE COMING WEEKS. TABLE BELOW SHOWS OCTOBER...NOVEMBER...DECEMBER 2010 AND JANUARY... FEBRUARY...MARCH AND APRIL (TO DATE) 2011 RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF POHNPEI STATE AND KOSRAE AIRPORT. IN THE LAST COLUMN...THE NUMBER UNDER EACH PERCENTAGE IS THE NORMAL FOR APRIL THROUGH THE 27TH. OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR PERCENT OF (1-27) APR AVG POHNPEI 12.22 14.23 11.85 12.24 12.25 20.60 7.71 47% POHNPEI AVERAGE 16.30 14.74 15.87 12.52 9.78 13.96 16.94 15.25 NUKUORO 9.06 9.50 3.85 4.34 6.66 16.96 13.03 84% NUKUORO AVERAGE 10.63 10.50 11.66 12.40 12.60 13.06 17.16 15.44 KAPINGAMARANGI 1.10 2.07 0.76 2.27 0.20 8.46 6.33 52% KAPINGAMARANGI AV 4.19 8.19 8.75 10.45 10.27 13.88 13.59 12.23 KOSRAE 13.80 11.70 10.99 12.01 10.96 9.60 15.14 96% KOSRAE AVERAGE 10.77 13.31 16.11 14.68 12.93 16.06 17.48 15.73 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR KAPINGAMARANGI WILL LEAD TO COOLER DAYS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHTS. WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS EQUATORIAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC EAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI. CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF 160 EAST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS...HOWEVER...HUMIDITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LEADING TO MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHTS. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPWARD TREND IN RAINFALL FOR KAPINGAMARANGI WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE ATOLL COULD GET NEAR 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND 5 TO 6 INCHES IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. NUKUORO COULD GET 3 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 6 TO 8 INCHES IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. POHNPEI AND OTHER ISLANDS OF POHNPEI STATE SHOULD GET 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. KOSRAE STATE... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE FOR KOSRAE THAT RAINFALL OF 4 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 6 TO 8 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN THE COMING WEEKS. OTHER IMPACTS... MODELS INDICATE THAT EQUATORIAL AREAS TO THE EAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI WILL STILL BE DRY...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ON NAURU AND THE ISLANDS OF WESTERN KIRIBATI. NAURU...TARAWA AND ARORAE COULD RECEIVE 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. BUTARITARI COULD RECEIVE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ON NAURU AND MOST OF WESTERN KIRIBATI WILL LAST INTO MAY. THE APRIL 25TH CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA REMAINS NORTHWARD TO ROUGHLY NEAR 10 DEGREES NORTH BETWEEN 140E TO 160E...AND PATCHY AREAS WERE AROUND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. A SMALL WATCH AREA IS JUST SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND. BLEACH WARNING AREAS REMAIN CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR THE ADMIRALTY ISLANDS AND NEW BRITAIN. THE FSM SHOULD MONITOR NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND WARNINGS AT: HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (LOWER CASE) FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE WEEK ON THURSDAY THE 5TH OF MAY...AND IT COULD BE THE LAST STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/ PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER... HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT POHNPEI...THE FSM OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OEEM...IN POHNPEI FSM...THE STATE DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE AT POHNPEI. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) $$ SIMPSON/GUARD/ZIOBRO