000 AXGM70 PGUM 140625 DGTGUM PMZ171-172-173-174-210600- YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 400 PM CHST THU APR 14 2011 ...KAPINGAMARANGI HAS RECEIVED LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN SO FAR IN APRIL THUS WE WILL MONITOR THE DROUGHT ANOTHER FEW WEEKS... SYNOPSIS... LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC...BUT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE THAT SUPPRESSED RAINFALL FOR KAPINGAMARANGI CONTINUES TO BE REPLACED WITH MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF UPWARD MOTION CONDUCIVE TO WETTER CONDITIONS. RAINFALL IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR AND EASTWARD OF 160E WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPARSE DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...BUT THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE SOME INCREASING AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AS WELL. THE SEASONAL TRADE-WIND TROUGH THAT STRENGTHENED EARLIER IN THE MONTH HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED...PRODUCING DRIER CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF MICRONESIA...AND THIS INCLUDES ALL OF POHNPEI STATE IN ADDITION TO KAPINGAMARANGI. KOSRAE HAS ALSO BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL. THE TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH MAY OR JUNE. RESIDENTS OF KAPINGAMARANGI SHOULD BE READY TO CATCH RAIN DURING THE RAINFALL EVENTS. THE FREQUENCY OF MODERATE AND HEAVY RAIN EVENTS WILL INCREASE FOR KAPINGAMARANGI OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS LA NINA EVENT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MAY. THE EQUATORIAL DROUGHT AREA IS SLOWLY SHRINKING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE WEST OF 160E. KAPINGAMARANGI RECEIVED ONLY 0.82 INCHES (14% OF NORMAL) OF RAIN FOR APRIL SO FAR AND RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THUS...WE WILL MONITOR THE AREA ANOTHER FEW WEEKS BEFORE CANCELING THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. SERIOUS DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM ABOUT 160E TO BEYOND THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THIS AREA INCLUDES NAURU AND THE ATOLLS OF WESTERN KIRIBATI. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... ADEQUATE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF POHNPEI STATE AND KOSRAE STATE. SOME RELIEF HAS DEVELOPED FOR KAPINGAMARANGI...BUT THE ATOLL COULD EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS DURING APRIL. WE ENCOURAGE CONTINUED IMPLEMENTATION OF WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES ON KAPINGAMARANGI. FRESH WATER SHOULD MOSTLY BE USED FOR DRINKING AND COOKING. RAINFALL AT NUKUORO HAS BEEN MORE THAN ADEQUATE AND SHOULD REMAIN SO. OTHER ISLANDS OF POHNPEI STATE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING SUFFICIENT RAINFALL. DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS HAS LIKELY OCCURRED ON KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL AND THE OTHER DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE MAY BE NECESSARY IF DAMAGE TO PLANTS AND FRUITS IS IRREVERSIBLE. SOME WELLS AND NUMEROUS INDIVIDUAL SOLAR STILLS ARE STILL PRODUCING WATER FOR DRINKING AND COOKING. CATCHMENTS SHOULD STILL BE MONITORED IN THE COMING WEEKS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... DROUGHT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG THE EQUATOR AROUND NAURU AND WESTERN KIRIBATI THROUGH THE END OF APRIL. THE EQUATORIAL DRY WEDGE ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA STILL PERSISTS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT THESE AREAS...BUT IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY AND DECREASE IN SIZE. WHILE THE SHRINKING PROCESS REMAINS SLOW...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHOWER COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE COMING WEEKS. TABLE BELOW SHOWS OCTOBER...NOVEMBER...DECEMBER 2010 AND JANUARY... FEBRUARY...MARCH AND APRIL (TO DATE) 2011 RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF POHNPEI STATE AND KOSRAE AIRPORT. IN THE LAST COLUMN...THE NUMBER UNDER EACH PERCENTAGE IS THE NORMAL FOR APRIL THROUGH THE 13TH. OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR PERCENT OF (1-13) APR AVG POHNPEI 12.22 14.23 11.85 12.24 12.25 20.60 1.98 27% POHNPEI AVERAGE 16.30 14.74 15.87 12.52 9.78 13.96 16.94 7.34 NUKUORO 9.06 9.50 3.85 4.34 6.66 16.96 3.16 42% NUKUORO AVERAGE 10.63 10.50 11.66 12.40 12.60 13.06 17.16 7.44 KAPINGAMARANGI 1.10 2.07 0.76 2.27 0.20 8.46 0.82 14% KAPINGAMARANGI AV 4.19 8.19 8.75 10.45 10.27 13.88 13.59 5.89 KOSRAE 13.80 11.70 10.99 12.01 10.96 9.60 3.63 48% KOSRAE AVERAGE 10.77 13.31 16.11 14.68 12.93 16.06 17.48 7.57 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR KAPINGAMARANGI WILL LEAD TO COOLER DAYS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHTS. WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY ACROSS EQUATORIAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC EAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI. CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF 160 EAST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS...HOWEVER...HUMIDITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LEADING TO MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHTS. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT UPWARD TREND IN RAINFALL IS IN STORE FOR KAPINGAMARANGI ESPECIALLY DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS THE COLD WATER ALONG THE EQUATOR WEST OF THE DATE LINE WARMS SLIGHTLY. SPECIFICALLY...THE ATOLL SHOULD GET AROUND 2.0 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND 3.5 TO 4.25 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. NUKUORO SHOULD RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. POHNPEI AND OTHER ISLANDS IN POHNPEI STATE SHOULD RECEIVE AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LOCATIONS NORTH OF 2N WILL BE EXPERIENCING A MARKED UPWARD TREND IN RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS...WHILE LOCATIONS SOUTH OF 2N WILL ONLY EXPERIENCE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN RAINFALL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS OVER FORECASTED THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING THE LAST FEW WEEKS. KOSRAE STATE... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT RAINFALL ON KOSRAE SHOULD TOTAL AROUND 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 3 TO 5 INCHES IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES SHOULD PROVIDE INCREASING AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN THE COMING WEEKS. OTHER IMPACTS... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT EQUATORIAL AREAS TO THE EAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI WILL STILL BE DRY...BUT THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ON NAURU AND THE ISLANDS OF WESTERN KIRIBATI. NAURU...TARAWA AND ARORAE WILL REMAIN DRY...WITH ABOUT THAN 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. BUTARITARI COULD RECEIVE AROUND 0.9 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 1.25 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ON NAURU AND IN MOST OF WESTERN KIRIBATI WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH LATE APRIL. AS OF APRIL 11TH THE CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA REMAINS CONFINED SOUTH OF 5 DEGREES NORTH FROM 130E TO 145E. THE WATCH AREA HAS EXPANDED EASTWARD ALONG 5 DEGREES NORTH TO 160E...AND NORTHWARD TO 10 DEGREES NORTH ALONG 150E. BLEACH WARNING AREAS REMAIN CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR THE ADMIRALTY ISLANDS AND NEW BRITAIN. THE FSM SHOULD MONITOR NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND WARNINGS AT: HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (LOWER CASE) FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE WEEK ON THURSDAY THE 21ST OF APRIL...OR SOONER IF NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/ PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER... HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT POHNPEI...THE FSM OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OEEM...IN POHNPEI FSM...THE STATE DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE AT POHNPEI. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) $$ MCELROY/SIMPSON/GUARD