000 AXGM70 PGUM 062025 DGTGUM PMZ171-172-173-174-140600- YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 630 AM CHST THU APR 7 2011 ...A FEW SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS KAPINGAMARANGI THIS PAST WEEK BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE MONITORED FOR DROUGHT FOR ANOTHER ONE TO TWO WEEKS... .SYNOPSIS... LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC...BUT CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. STRONG AND PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE THAT SUPPRESSED RAINFALL FOR KAPINGAMARANGI IS BEING REPLACED WITH MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF UPWARD MOTION CONDUCIVE TO WETTER CONDITIONS. RAINFALL IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR AND EASTWARD OF 160E WILL CONTINUE TO BE SPARSE DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS...BUT THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE INCREASING RAINFALL AS WELL. THE SEASONAL TRADE-WIND TROUGH HAS STRENGTHENED...BRINGING MORE ABUNDANT RAINFALL TO AREAS NORTH OF 3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE...AND THIS INCLUDES ALL OF POHNPEI STATE EXCEPT KAPINGAMARANGI. KOSRAE HAS BEEN DRIER THAN NORMAL...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL AS WELL. THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH MAY OR JUNE. RESIDENTS OF KAPINGAMARANGI SHOULD BE READY TO CATCH RAIN DURING THE RAINFALL EVENTS. THE FREQUENCY OF MODERATE AND HEAVY RAIN EVENTS WILL INCREASE FOR KAPINGAMARANGI OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THIS LA NINA EVENT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO MAY. THE EQUATORIAL DROUGHT AREA IS SLOWLY SHRINKING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE WEST OF 160E. KAPINGAMARANGI HAS RECEIVED ONLY 0.55 INCH (20% OF NORMAL) OF RAIN FOR APRIL SO FAR AND RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THUS...WE WILL MONITOR THE AREA ANOTHER WEEK OR TWO BEFORE CANCELING THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. SERIOUS DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM ABOUT 160E TO BEYOND THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THIS AREA INCLUDES NAURU AND THE ATOLLS OF WESTERN KIRIBATI. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... ADEQUATE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF POHNPEI STATE AND KOSRAE STATE. SOME RELIEF HAS DEVELOPED FOR KAPINGAMARANGI...BUT THE ATOLL COULD EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS DURING APRIL. WE ENCOURAGE CONTINUED IMPLEMENTATION OF WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES ON KAPINGAMARANGI. FRESH WATER SHOULD MOSTLY BE USED FOR DRINKING AND COOKING. RAINFALL AT NUKUORO HAS BEEN MORE THAN ADEQUATE AND SHOULD REMAIN SO. OTHER ISLANDS OF POHNPEI STATE HAVE BEEN RECEIVING SUFFICIENT RAINFALL. DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS HAS LIKELY OCCURRED ON KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL AND THE OTHER DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE MAY BE NECESSARY IF DAMAGE TO PLANTS AND FRUITS IS IRREVERSIBLE. SOME WELLS AND NUMEROUS INDIVIDUAL SOLAR STILLS ARE STILL PRODUCING WATER FOR DRINKING AND COOKING. CATCHMENTS SHOULD STILL BE MONITORED IN THE COMING WEEKS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... DROUGHT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG THE EQUATOR AROUND NAURU AND WESTERN KIRIBATI THROUGH MID-APRIL. THE EQUATORIAL DRY WEDGE ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA STILL PERSISTS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT THESE AREAS...BUT IT HAS WEAKENED IN INTENSITY AND DECREASED IN SIZE. WHILE THE SHRINKING PROCESS WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW...THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE COMING WEEKS. TABLE BELOW SHOWS OCTOBER...NOVEMBER...DECEMBER 2010 AND JANUARY... FEBRUARY...MARCH AND APRIL (TO DATE) 2011 RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF POHNPEI STATE AND KOSRAE AIRPORT. IN THE LAST COLUMN...THE NUMBER UNDER EACH PERCENTAGE IS THE NORMAL FOR APRIL THROUGH THE 6TH. OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR PERCENT OF (1-6) APR AVG POHNPEI 12.22 14.23 11.85 12.24 12.25 20.60 1.80 53% POHNPEI AVERAGE 16.30 14.74 15.87 12.52 9.78 13.96 16.94 3.39 NUKUORO 9.06 9.50 3.85 4.34 6.66 16.96 2.23 65% NUKUORO AVERAGE 10.63 10.50 11.66 12.40 12.60 13.06 17.16 3.43 KAPINGAMARANGI 1.10 2.07 0.76 2.27 0.20 8.46 0.55 20% KAPINGAMARANGI AV 4.19 8.19 8.75 10.45 10.27 13.88 13.59 2.72 KOSRAE 13.80 11.70 10.99 12.01 10.96 9.60 2.73 78% KOSRAE AVERAGE 10.77 13.31 16.11 14.68 12.93 16.06 17.48 3.50 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... INCREASED CLOUDINESS FOR KAPINGAMARANGI WILL LEAD TO COOLER DAYS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHTS. WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY ACROSS EQUATORIAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC EAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI. CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF 160 EAST WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS...HOWEVER...HUMIDITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LEADING TO MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHTS. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED VARIABILITY IN RAINFALL FOR KAPINGAMARANGI ESPECIALLY DURING DAYS 6 TO 10 OF THE COMING 10-DAY PERIOD. SPECIFICALLY...THE ATOLL SHOULD GET BETWEEN 0.3 TO 0.6 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND 1.8 TO 2.8 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. NUKUORO SHOULD RECEIVE 0.4 TO 0.9 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. POHNPEI AND OTHER ISLANDS IN POHNPEI STATE SHOULD RECEIVE AROUND 1 INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FIRST 5 DAYS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WHILE DAYS 6 THROUGH 10 WILL BE SLIGHTLY WETTER. KOSRAE STATE... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT RAINFALL ON KOSRAE SHOULD TOTAL AROUND 0.3 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 1.2 INCHES IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE ISLAND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HIGH WEEK TO WEEK RAINFALL VARIABILITY...WITH DRIER THAN NORMAL RAINFALL BUT WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN THE COMING WEEKS. OTHER IMPACTS... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT EQUATORIAL AREAS TO THE EAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI WILL STILL BE DRY...BUT THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON NAURU AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC ISLANDS OF KIRIBATI. NAURU...TARAWA AND ARORAE WILL REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND AROUND 0.8 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. BUTARITARI COULD RECEIVE UP TO 1 INCH OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 1.5 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ON NAURU AND IN MOST OF WESTERN KIRIBATI WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH LATE-APRIL. AS OF APRIL 4TH THE CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA HAS RETREATED WESTWARD TO AROUND 8 DEGREES NORTH FROM 140E TO 158E...WHILE FROM 130E TO 140E THE WATCH AREA REMAINS EQUATORWARD OF 5 DEGREES NORTH. BLEACH WARNING AREAS ARE CONCENTRATED SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR NEAR THE ADMIRALTY ISLANDS AND NEW BRITAIN. THE FSM SHOULD MONITOR NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND WARNINGS AT: HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (LOWER CASE) FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE WEEK ON THURSDAY THE 14TH OF APRIL...OR SOONER IF NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/ PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER... HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT POHNPEI...THE FSM OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OEEM...IN POHNPEI FSM...THE STATE DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE AT POHNPEI. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) $$ MCELROY/SIMPSON/GUARD