000 AXGM70 PGUM 240447 DGTGUM PMZ171-172-173-174-030600- YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 247 PM CHST THU FEB 24 2011 ...EXTREMELY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR NEAR EQUATORIAL AREAS FROM KAPINGAMARANGI EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE... .SYNOPSIS... LA NINA CONDITIONS PERSISTED THROUGH MID-FEBRUARY. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS MATURE LA NINA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...BUT THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE EQUATORIAL WEDGE OF COLD OCEAN WATER REMAINS NEAR 155E. STRONG AND PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE WILL STILL SUPPRESS RAINFALL IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR FROM KAPINGAMARANGI EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. COVERAGE OF THE SUBSIDENCE AREA GENERALLY COINCIDES WITH THE SHAPE AND EXTENT OF THE EQUATORIAL COLD WATER WEDGE. A STRENGTHENING TRADE-WIND TROUGH WILL INCREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NORTH OF 4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. THIS INCLUDES MOST OF POHNPEI STATE AND KOSRAE. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND PERSIST ACROSS THOSE LATITUDES FROM MARCH INTO MAY OR JUNE. CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR...WITHIN ABOUT 3 DEGREES OF LATITUDE...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DRY. THE FREQUENCY OF LIGHT RAIN EVENTS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR KAPINGAMARANGI...AND RESIDENTS SHOULD BE READY TO CATCH RAIN DURING THOSE EVENTS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS LA NINA EVENT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE SPRING. THE EQUATORIAL DROUGHT AREA THAT SHOWED SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING IS STILL HOLDING ITS OWN...AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCREASE IN THESE WESTERN AREAS FIRST...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BEGIN. IT IS RARE FOR THIS PATTERN TO PERSIST BEYOND MARCH AT KAPINGAMARANGI... SO SOME RELIEF IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. SO FAR...FEBRUARY RAINFALL AT KAPINGAMARANGI HAS BEEN FAR BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY 2.3%. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR KAPINGAMARANGI IN THE COMING WEEKS...BUT SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM ABOUT 150E TO BEYOND THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THIS AREA INCLUDES KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL...NAURU AND THE ATOLLS OF WESTERN KIRIBATI. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... ADEQUATE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF POHNPEI STATE AND IN KOSRAE STATE. DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN AT KAPINGAMARANGI. THE ATOLL HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DRY SINCE AUGUST 2010. THE OVERALL PERSISTENCE OF THIS EVENT...ALONG WITH COMPUTER FORECAST MODELS AND PAST CLIMATE HISTORY SUGGEST THAT THIS DRY PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT MONTH. WE ENCOURAGE CONTINUED IMPLEMENTATION OF WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES ON KAPINGAMARANGI. FRESH WATER SHOULD BE USED ONLY FOR DRINKING AND COOKING. RAINFALL AT NUKUORO HAS BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE BUT PROBABLY SUFFICIENT FOR DRINKING...COOKING AND MOST AGRICULTURE. OTHER ISLANDS OF POHNPEI STATE HAVE HAD MORE THAN SUFFICIENT RAINFALL. DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS HAS LIKELY OCCURRED ON KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL AS A RESULT OF THE DROUGHT. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IF DAMAGE TO THE PLANTS OR FRUITS IS IRREVERSIBLE. SOME WELLS AND NUMEROUS INDIVIDUAL SOLAR STILLS ARE STILL PRODUCING WATER FOR DRINKING AND COOKING. CLIMATE SUMMARY... DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EQUATOR AROUND NAURU AND WESTERN KIRIBATI THROUGH THE NEXT FEW WEEKS WELL INTO MARCH OR PERHAPS LONGER. THE EQUATORIAL DRY WEDGE ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA STILL PERSISTS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO AFFECT KAPINGAMARANGI. WHILE THERE ARE RECENT INDICATIONS THAT THE DRY WEDGE IS SHRINKING...THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW AND DROUGHT WILL PERSIST AT KAPINGAMARANGI WHERE ONLY LIGHT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING WEEKS. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS SEPTEMBER...OCTOBER...NOVEMBER...DECEMBER 2010...JANUARY AND FEBRUARY (TO DATE) 2011 RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF POHNPEI STATE AND FOR THE KOSRAE AIRPORT. IN THE LAST COLUMN...THE NUMBER UNDER EACH PERCENTAGE IS THE NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY THROUGH THE 23RD. SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB PERCENT (1-23) OF FEB AVG POHNPEI 14.49 12.22 14.23 11.85 12.24 10.50 131% POHNPEI AVERAGE 14.94 16.30 14.74 15.87 12.52 9.78 8.03 NUKUORO 4.33 9.06 9.50 3.85 4.34 6.66 64% NUKUORO AVERAGE 10.14 10.63 10.50 11.66 12.40 12.60 10.35 KAPINGAMARANGI 0.72 1.10 2.07 0.76 2.27 .20 2.3% KAPINGAMARANGI AV 5.89 4.19 8.19 8.75 10.45 10.27 8.44 KOSRAE 6.94 13.80 11.70 10.99 12.01 8.97 84% KOSRAE AVERAGE 14.22 10.77 13.31 16.11 14.68 12.93 10.62 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY DRY ACROSS EQUATORIAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC EAST OF 150E. CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS...HOWEVER...HUMIDITY SHOULD INCREASE LEADING TO MORE CLOUDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NIGHTS. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE KAPINGAMARANGI COULD STILL BE VERY DRY WITH ONLY 0.6 TO 0.9 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN QUICKLY PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. FARTHER NORTH...NUKUORO SHOULD RECEIVE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. POHNPEI AND OTHER ISLANDS OF POHNPEI STATE SHOULD RECEIVE 1.5 TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. KOSRAE STATE... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT RAINFALL FOR KOSRAE WILL AGAIN BE NEAR 3 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND AROUND 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE ISLAND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HIGH WEEK TO WEEK RAINFALL VARIABILITY. OTHER IMPACTS... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT EQUATORIAL AREAS TO THE EAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI...SUCH AS NAURU AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC ISLANDS OF KIRIBATI...INCLUDING TARAWA AND ARORAE WILL REMAIN IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH ONLY 0.2 INCHES OR LESS OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS FOR THOSE AREAS. NAURU WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY...WHILE MODELS SHOW THAT BUTARITARI MAY RECEIVE UP TO 0.8 INCHES IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT NAURU AND MOST OF WESTERN KIRIBATI WILL LAST INTO MARCH AND PERHAPS APRIL. AS OF FEBRUARY 21ST THE CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF ABOUT 10N AND MAINLY BETWEEN 130E AND 155E. WARNING AREAS ARE WELL SOUTH TOWARD PAPUA NEW GUINEA. THE FSM SHOULD MONITOR THE NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND WARNINGS AT: HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (LOWER CASE) FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE WEEK ON THURSDAY THE 3RD OF MARCH...OR SOONER IF NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/ PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT POHNPEI...THE FSM OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OEEM...IN POHNPEI FSM...THE STATE DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE AT POHNPEI. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) $$ GUARD