000 AXGM70 PGUM 190221 DGTGUM PMZ171-172-173-174-181-050600- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1220 PM CHST TUE FEB 19 2013 ...SOME RAINFALL RELIEF COMES TO PARTS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND CHUUK STATE... SYNOPSIS... ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG WINTER-TIME HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PERSISTS BETWEEN ABOUT 7 AND 25 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE FROM 150 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE. CLIMATE MODELS INDICATE THE ENSO-NEUTRAL AND STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERNS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS OR MORE...POSSIBLY INTO APRIL. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RAIN WILL AGAIN MOVE SOUTH OF MAJURO...MAKING CONDITIONS DRY ON ARNO AND MAJURO AND ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. MODELS ALSO SHOW MOSTLY DRY WEATHER STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS OF CHUUK STATE...THE HALL ISLANDS AND NAMONUITO ATOLL. SERIOUS DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS FROM MAJURO NORTHWARD...INCLUDING EBEYE...ENEWETAK... WOTJE...UJAE...AND UTIRIK. ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME DRY SEASON TYPE WEATHER...BUT SHOULD RECEIVE SUFFICIENT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS. WEATHER AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUED TO BE MONITORED FOR PARTS OF THE FEDERATED STATES ON MICRONESIA...ESPECIALLY CHUUK AND YAP STATES. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... MAJURO... AS OF THE 17TH...MAJURO HAS HAD 6.53 INCHES OF RAIN IN FEBRUARY... WITH 3.68 INCHES FALLING IN THE EARLY HOURS OF THE 15TH. RAINFALL WILL DECREASE AND WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE COMING 10 DAYS AT LEAST...AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL LATE LATE MARCH OR APRIL. STRONG WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES WILL BE NEEDED TO AVOID THE DEPLETION OF WELLS...RESERVOIRS AND CATCHMENTS. AS OF 19 FEBRUARY 2013...MAJURO RESERVOIR CONTAINS 15 MILLION GALLONS OF WATER... OR LESS THAN ONE ONE HALF CAPACITY. HOWEVER... THIS IS UP FROM THE LOW OF 8 MILLION GALLONS ON 14 FEBRUARY. ATOLLS NORTH OF MAJURO... RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY LIGHT WITH PERHAPS A QUARTER TO HALF INCH TOTAL THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CONSERVATION MEASURES WILL BE NEEDED TO AVOID THE DEPLETION OF WELLS AND CATCHMENTS. ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO... DRY SEASON CONDITIONS PREVAIL AND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF ABOUT 5N. RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE BUT HEAVIER IN THE COMING WEEKS WITH PERHAPS UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... WEATHER AND RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR OTHER PARTS OF THE FEDERATED STATES ON MICRONESIA...ESPECIALLY CHUUK AND YAP STATES. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI HAVE RECEIVED SUFFICIENT RAINFALL THROUGH JANUARY AND THE BEGINNING OF FEBRUARY. SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS POSSIBLE ON SMALLER ISLANDS AND ATOLLS WHERE RAINFALL IS SPARSE. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE MAY BE NECESSARY IF DAMAGE TO PLANTS AND FRUITS IS IRREVERSIBLE. WATER CATCHMENTS SHOULD BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY IN THE COMING WEEKS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... THE ENSO-NEUTRAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE SUMMER... AS A RESULT...RAINFALL SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY APRIL FOR THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS AND BY MAY FOR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. SOME JANUARY RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... JANUARY TOTAL THROUGH FEBRUARY 17 MARSHALL ISLANDS MAJURO... 2.42 6.53 KWAJALEIN... 1.22 0.35 UTIRIK... 1.91 1.15 WOTJE... 0.42 TRACE JANUARY TOTAL THROUGH FEBRUARY 18 CHUUK STATE FANANU... 3.10 1.62 ONUON... 9.26 1.72 LUKUNOR... 5.05 8.97 LOSAP... 4.35 4.92 (1 DAY MISSING) PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE VERY DRY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS ALSO CAUSING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF MICRONESIA ALONG WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... MAJURO... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS BUT LESS THAN ONE INCH OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A HEAVIER SHOWER ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHEAST COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. WHILE THE RAIN ON THE 15TH HELPED TO ADD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE AIRPORT RESERVOIR...WATER CONSERVATION WILL STILL BE IMPORTANT FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. ATOLLS NORTH OF MAJURO... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS TO LESS THAN HALF AN INCH IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. SOME SHEAR-LINE ACTIVITY COULD HELP PRODUCE A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAINFALL AT TIMES IN THE COMING WEEKS...BUT THOSE EVENTS CANNOT BE COUNTED ON. WATER RATIONING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NORTHERN AREAS. ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE AROUND THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS FOR MOST ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO.RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS AS IS TYPICAL WITH DRY SEASON WEATHER. CONVERGENCE OF NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS SHOULD BRING EVEN HEAVIER RAINS BY MID-MARCH. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... CHUUK STATE... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE VARIABLE RAINFALL FOR AREAS BETWEEN 5N AND 10N FROM 148E TO 155E. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN HALF AN INCH AND ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR THE HALL ISLANDS AND NAMONUITO ATOLL OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WHILE LESS THAN ONE INCH CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATER RATIONING REQUIREMENTS. OTHER IMPACTS... THE FEBRUARY 18TH CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF 4 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE... FROM 140 TO 165 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE. THE FSM SHOULD MONITOR NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND WARNINGS AT: HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (LOWER CASE) FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE MARCH 5 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/ PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT CHUUK AND MAJURO...USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICE MAJURO. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) $$ GUARD/SIMPSON/STANKO