000 AXGM70 PGUM 030305 DGTGUM PMZ171-172-173-174-100600- YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 100 PM CHST THU FEB 3 2011 ...THE DROUGHT PATTERN FOR KAPINGAMARANGI IS ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING... .SYNOPSIS... LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE STILL CLASSIFIED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AS MODERATE TO STRONG...BUT RECENTLY THE EQUATORIAL WEDGE OF COLD OCEAN WATER HAS RECEDED EASTWARD SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 160E. STRONG AND PERSISTENT SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPRESS RAINFALL IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR EAST OF 160E DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. COVERAGE OF THE SUBSIDENCE AREA GENERALLY COINCIDES WITH THE SHAPE AND EXTENT OF THE EQUATORIAL COLD WATER WEDGE. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS LA NINA EVENT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE SPRING. NEVERTHELESS...THE EQUATORIAL DROUGHT AREA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING AT ITS WESTERN-MOST EXTENT BETWEEN 150E AND 160E. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE IN THESE WESTERN AREAS FIRST...BUT THERE WILL BE HIGH WEEK-TO-WEEK VARIABILITY. JANUARY RAINFALL AT KAPINGAMARANGI WAS FAR BELOW NORMAL AT ONLY 22% OF NORMAL. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR KAPINGAMARANGI IN THE COMING WEEKS...BUT DROUGHT CONDITIONS STILL EXTEND EASTWARD FROM ABOUT 150E TO AT LEAST THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THIS AREA INCLUDES KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL...NAURU AND THE ATOLLS OF WESTERN KIRIBATI. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... ADEQUATE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF POHNPEI STATE...BUT DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN AT KAPINGAMARANGI. THE ATOLL WAS EXTREMELY DRY LAST YEAR...WITH SOME MINOR RELIEF IN JANUARY. THE OVERALL PERSISTENCE OF THIS EVENT...ALONG WITH COMPUTER FORECAST MODELS AND PAST CLIMATE HISTORY SUGGEST THAT THIS DRY PATTERN WILL IMPROVE VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO. WE ENCOURAGE CONTINUED IMPLEMENTATION OF WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES ON KAPINGAMARANGI. FRESH WATER SHOULD BE USED ONLY FOR DRINKING AND COOKING. RAINFALL AT NUKUORO AND THE OTHER ISLANDS OF POHNPEI STATE HAS BEEN ADEQUATE. SOME WELLS AND SOLAR STILLS ARE STILL PRODUCING WATER FOR DRINKING AND COOKING. SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS HAS LIKELY OCCURRED ON KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL AS A RESULT OF THE DROUGHT. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IF DAMAGE TO THE PLANTS OR FRUIT IS IRREVERSIBLE. CLIMATE SUMMARY... THE EQUATORIAL DRY WEDGE ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA PERSISTS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO STILL AFFECT KAPINGAMARANGI...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE DRY WEDGE IS SHRINKING AND MOVING EASTWARD TO BETWEEN 160E AND 170E. THIS PROCESS HAS BEEN SLOW...AND THE DROUGHT WILL PERSIST AT KAPINGAMARANGI WHERE ONLY LIGHT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING WEEKS. LIGHT SHOWERS OCCURRED LAST WEEK AROUND NAURU AND WESTERN KIRIBATI...BUT THESE LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE VERY DRY INTO MARCH. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS AUGUST...SEPTEMBER...OCTOBER...NOVEMBER... DECEMBER AND JANUARY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF POHNPEI STATE AND FOR THE KOSRAE AIRPORT. IN THE LAST COLUMN...THE NUMBER UNDER EACH PERCENTAGE IS THE NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY. AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN PERCENT (1-31) OF JAN AVG POHNPEI 14.21 14.49 12.22 14.23 11.85 12.24 98% POHNPEI AVERAGE 16.37 14.94 16.30 14.74 15.87 12.52 12.52 NUKUORO 13.39 4.33 9.06 9.50 3.85 4.34 35% NUKUORO AVERAGE 12.49 10.14 10.63 10.50 11.66 12.40 12.40 KAPINGAMARANGI 3.16 0.72 1.10 2.07 0.76 2.27 22% KAPINGAMARANGI AV 6.16 5.89 4.19 8.19 8.75 10.45 10.45 KOSRAE 10.55 6.94 13.80 11.70 10.99 12.01 82% KOSRAE AVERAGE 14.34 14.22 10.77 13.31 16.11 14.68 14.68 NOTE: NUKUORO AND KAPINGAMARANGI RAINFALL VALUES FOR LAST WEEK ARE CORRECTED ON THIS WEEK'S TABLE. THEY WERE TOO HIGH LAST WEEK. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY ACROSS EQUATORIAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC EAST OF 150E. CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS...HOWEVER...HUMIDITY SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LEADING TO MORE CLOUDS AND WARMER NIGHTS. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... COMPUTER MODELS VARY...BUT IN GENERAL...INDICATE THAT KAPINGAMARANGI WILL RECEIVE 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND PERHAPS 2.0 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. NUKUORO COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. POHNPEI AND OTHER ISLANDS OF POHNPEI STATE SHOULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CURRENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT DROUGHT AT KAPINGAMARANGI WILL LAST INTO LATE FEBRUARY. THERE ARE RECENT INDICATIONS THAT THE SUBSIDENCE AREA THAT IS BRINGING DROUGHT TO KAPINGAMARANGI IS SLOWLY SHRINKING. INCREASED MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE ATOLL FROM NORTHEAST WHERE THE TRADE WIND TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO BUILD BETWEEN 3-4N AND 6-7N ACROSS MICRONESIA. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND PERSIST ACROSS THOSE LATITUDES FROM MARCH INTO MAY OR JUNE. KOSRAE STATE... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FOR KOSRAE WITH PREDICTED AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE ISLAND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HIGH WEEK TO WEEK RAINFALL VARIABILITY DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 WEEKS UNTIL THE TRADE WIND TROUGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED. OTHER IMPACTS... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT EQUATORIAL AREAS TO THE EAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI...SUCH AS NAURU AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC ISLANDS OF KIRIBATI...TARAWA...BUTARITARI AND ARORAE WILL REMAIN IN EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS FOR THOSE AREAS. ARORAE AND NAURU WILL BE ESPECIALLY HARD HIT...WHILE BUTARITARI MAY RECEIVE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AT TIMES. HISTORICAL DATA SUGGESTS DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN NAURU AND MOST OF WESTERN KIRIBATI ARE LIKELY TO LAST INTO MARCH. THE FSM SHOULD MONITOR THE NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND WARNINGS AT: HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (SMALL CASE) FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THE CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA HAS AGAIN EXPANDED NORTHWARD INTO YAP STATE AND CHUUK STATE IN THE FSM...AND ALSO INTO THE MARIANAS AND PALAU. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE WEEK ON THURSDAY THE 10TH OF FEBRUARY...OR SOONER IF NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/ PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT POHNPEI...THE FSM OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OEEM...IN POHNPEI FSM...THE STATE DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE AT POHNPEI. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) $$ GUARD/SIMPSON/STANKO