000 AXGM70 PGUM 060710 DGTGUM PMZ171-172-173-174-130200- YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 500 PM CHST THU JAN 6 2011 ...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEAR THE EQUATOR... .SYNOPSIS... LA NINA CONDITIONS PERSIST AND ARE STILL CLASSIFIED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER AS MODERATE TO STRONG. THE EQUATORIAL WEDGE OF COLD OCEAN WATER EXTENDS WESTWARD TO AROUND 150E. ALTHOUGH ADEQUATE RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND A OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS HAVE OCCURRED NORTH OF 3N...STRONG SUBSIDENCE HAS SUPPRESSED RAINFALL IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR. COVERAGE OF THE SUBSIDENCE AREA GENERALLY COINCIDES WITH THE SHAPE AND EXTENT OF THE EQUATORIAL COLD WATER WEDGE. DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXTEND FROM ABOUT 150E EASTWARD TO AT LEAST THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THIS AREA INCLUDES KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL...NAURU AND THE ATOLLS OF WESTERN KIRIBATI. THE EQUATORIAL DROUGHT AREA HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST WEEK. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS LA NINA EVENT WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THE SPRING. IMPROVEMENTS IN RAINFALL WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA FIRST...MAINLY BETWEEN 150E AND 160E. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... ADEQUATE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED FOR MOST OF POHNPEI STATE...BUT WEATHER HAS REMAINED EXTREMELY DRY AT KAPINGAMARANGI OVER THE LAST FIVE TO SIX MONTHS. THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS EVENT...COMPUTER MODELS AND PAST CLIMATE HISTORY SUGGEST THAT THIS DRY PATTERN WILL LIKELY LAST SEVERAL ( ABOUT 4 TO 6 ) MORE WEEKS. WE ENCOURAGE CONTINUED IMPLEMENTATION OF STRINGENT WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES ON KAPINGAMARANGI. FRESH WATER SHOULD BE USED ONLY FOR DRINKING AND COOKING. RAINFALL AT NUKUORO WAS BARELY SUFFICIENT IN DECEMBER WITH ONLY 3.85 INCHES BUT THE ISLAND RECEIVED 2.30 INCHES DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JANUARY. RAINFALL AT KAPINGAMARANGI SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO. KAPINGAMARANGI RECEIVED ONLY 0.76 INCH OF RAIN IN DECEMBER AND ONLY 0.11 INCHES SO FAR IN JANUARY. SOME WELLS AND SOLAR STILLS ARE STILL PRODUCING WATER FOR DRINKING AND COOKING. SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS HAS LIKELY OCCURRED ON KAPINGAMARANGI ATOLL AS A RESULT OF THE DROUGHT. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IF DAMAGE TO THE PLANTS OR FRUIT IS IRREVERSIBLE. CLIMATE SUMMARY... THE EQUATORIAL DRY WEDGE ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA PERSISTS FAR ENOUGH WEST TO SERIOUSLY AFFECT KAPINGAMARANGI. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE ATOLL...BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE DRY WEDGE IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO SHRINK. THIS PROCESS WILL BE SLOW...AND WILL FIRST OCCUR AT THE WESTERN END NEAR 150E TO 155E. ALSO...NAURU AND WESTERN KIRIBATI WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY...POSSIBLY INTO MARCH. THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS AUGUST...SEPTEMBER...OCTOBER...NOVEMBER... DECEMBER AND JANUARY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR PARTS OF POHNPEI STATE AND FOR THE KOSRAE AIRPORT. AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN PERCENT (1-6) OF JAN AVG POHNPEI 14.21 14.49 12.22 14.23 11.85 2.88 94% POHNPEI AVERAGE 16.37 14.94 16.30 14.74 14.84 15.87 3.07 NUKUORO 13.39 4.33 9.06 ~9.50 3.85 2.30 102% NUKUORO AVERAGE 12.49 10.14 10.63 10.50 10.90 11.66 2.26 KAPINGAMARANGI 3.16 0.72 1.10 2.07 0.76 0.11 7% KAPINGAMARANGI AV 6.16 5.89 4.19 8.19 8.18 8.75 1.69 KOSRAE 10.55 6.94 13.80 11.70 10.99 0.98 31% KOSRAE AVERAGE 14.34 14.22 10.77 13.31 15.25 16.11 3.12 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE VERY DRY ACROSS EQUATORIAL AREAS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC EAST OF 150E. CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RELATIVELY WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA... POHNPEI STATE... COMPUTER MODELS VARY...BUT IN GENERAL...INDICATE THAT KAPINGAMARANGI COULD RECEIVE PERHAPS 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. NUKUORO COULD RECEIVE FROM 0.5 TO 1 INCH DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 1 TO 2.5 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. POHNPEI AND OTHER ISLANDS OF POHNPEI STATE SHOULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CURRENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS AT KAPINGAMARANGI WILL LAST INTO LATE JANUARY OR EARLY FEBRUARY. THERE ARE RECENT INDICATIONS THAT THE SUBSIDENCE AREA THAT IS BRINGING DROUGHT TO KAPINGAMARANGI IS SLOWLY SHRINKING...AND THAT INCREASED MOISTURE IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE ATOLL FROM THE WEST AND NORTH. KOSRAE STATE... FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT KOSRAE WILL RECEIVE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS...KOSRAE COULD GET 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. THE ISLAND WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE HIGH WEEK TO WEEK RAINFALL VARIABILITY DURING THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO. OTHER IMPACTS... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT EQUATORIAL AREAS TO THE EAST OF KAPINGAMARANGI...SUCH AS NAURU AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC ISLANDS OF KIRIBATI...TARAWA AND ARORAE AND BUTARITARI...WILL REMAIN IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH ONLY AROUND 0.2 TO 0.4 INCHES OF RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS FOR THOSE AREAS. HISTORICAL DATA SUGGESTS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN NAURU AND MOST OF WESTERN KIRIBATI ARE LIKELY TO LAST INTO FEBRUARY AND ARE POSSIBLE INTO MARCH. THE US CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM INDICATES THAT A CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA EXTENDS FROM CHUUK AND YAP STATES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EQUATOR...INCLUDING THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU. POHNPEI STATE IS NO LONGER IN A BLEACHING WATCH AREA. THE FSM SHOULD MONITOR THE NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND WARNINGS AT: HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (SMALL CASE) NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED IN ONE WEEK ON THURSDAY THE 13TH OF JANUARY...OR SOONER IF NEEDED FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/ PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CENTER...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT POHNPEI...THE FSM OFFICE OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT...OEEM...IN POHNPEI FSM...THE STATE DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE AT POHNPEI. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) $$ GUARD/SIMPSON