About Collaborative Surf

07 Nov 2009 01:00:00 GMT

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available. When Pat Caldwell is not available, the latest collaborative forecast will remain posted for 4 days.

Collaborative Surf Table

07 Nov 2009 01:00:00 GMT

FORECAST DATE	SWL HGT	DMNT DIR	DMNT PD	H 1/3	H 1/10	HGT TEND	PROB	WIND SPD	WIND DIR	SPD TEND
1PM 11/06	4	NNW	11	6	8	DOWN		13-19	ENE	SAME
	7	ENE	7	2	4	DOWN
	3	SSW	14	5	7	SAME
SAT 11/07	5	NNW	15	8	10	SAME	HIGH	13-19	E	SAME
	7	ENE	7	2	4	SAME	MED
	3	SSW	14	5	7	SAME	MED
SUN 11/08	4	N	13	6	8	DOWN	MED	13-19	E	SAME
	7	ENE	7	2	4	SAME	MED
	2	SSW	13	2	4	DOWN	MED
MON 11/09	4	N	11	6	8	SAME	LOW	13-19	ENE	SAME
	7	ENE	7	2	4	SAME	MED
	2	SSW	12	2	4	SAME	LOW
TUE 11/10	3	NNE	10	4	6	DOWN	LOW	13-19	ENE	SAME
	7	ENE	7	2	4	SAME	LOW
	2	SSW	15	2	4	UP	LOW
WED 11/11	4	N	13	6	8	UP	LOW	13-19	ENE	SAME
	7	ENE	7	2	4	SAME	LOW
	2	SSW	14	2	4	SAME	LOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

07 Nov 2009 01:00:00 GMT

LEGEND:

SWL HGT	OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR	DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
DMNT PD	DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3	SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10	AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
HGT TEND	HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB	PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD	OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR	WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND	WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

07 Nov 2009 01:00:00 GMT

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

07 Nov 2009 01:00:00 GMT

DISCUSSION: Summary: near high southerly swell to last into Saturday. Moderate northerly swell for the weekend. Detailed: mid Friday on southern shores has moderate to occasionally quasi-high breakers from 185-200 degrees. Similar heights expected on Saturday. An active austral spring pattern has set up near New Zealand making local surf above average, which is near nil from southern hemisphere sources in November. The pattern continues into the long range. A week ago this past Wednesday into Thursday, severe gales SE of New Zealand generated long period swell aimed at Hawaii in the 190-200 degree band. This energy arrived locally on this past Wednesday and rose on Thursday. Last Friday east of the north island of New Zealand, a new low pressure formed with gales in the 185-200 degree band reaching to within 3000 nm of Hawaii. Swell from the first system were given an extra push from the second system. The result is near high conditions locally on Friday. With the long travel distance, the swell trains become dispersed, or spread in groups of similar wave periods over wide areas. This should mean slow changes to the local pattern. Buoy 51002 shows energy in the 13-16 second band staying fairly steady on Friday morning. Most likely, local surf will hold the same on Saturday, with a downward trend late Saturday into Sunday from the same direction. Lingering small surf is possible on Monday. Another extratropical cyclone passed SE of New Zealand early this week, though aiming more at targets east of Hawaii. Angular spreading should bring in at least small breakers next Tuesday into Wednesday from 180-200 degrees. Mid Friday on northern shores has sub-moderate breakers from 340-020 degrees with 9-12 second periods. This was associated with near gales north of the state mid week. This episode is expected to lower overnight as a new episode arrives. The north Pacific jet stream has had a blocking pattern, or ridge, near the dateline and trough in the gulf of Alaska. This is giving dominant swell from NNW to NNE. More of the same is expected through next week. A short-wave in the jet stream rounded the ridge and amplified on Tuesday as it moved east of the longitude of Hawaii, 160°W. At the surface, severe gales in an area over 1500 nm set up just east of the dateline on Tuesday, aimed near to just east of Hawaii. By Wednesday, the system strengthened and broadened, yet left the Hawaii swell window. Long period swell of 15-17 seconds is due locally overnight, with surf in the moderate category on Saturday from 345-360 degrees. Heights should slowly lower Sunday into Tuesday, with added energy from 000-030 due to angular spreading from the massive gulf of Alaska source, with at least small breakers. Models show a similar pattern with an amplifying short-wave near 160°W on Sunday as it tracks east. At the surface, winds are expected to be much weaker for the fetch aimed at or just east of Hawaii, leaning toward marginal gales in an area 1500 nm out on Sunday. This could give a near moderate episode for Wednesday from 350-010 degrees. Mid Friday on eastern shores has small to moderate breakers under moderate to fresh trades. See the latest NWS state weather forecast discussion for explanations and caveats to the Friday five-day wind forecast. Similar surf is expected into early next week. Into the long range, windswell to at least moderate levels from 30-90 degrees mid next week toward the weekend. No suggestions of surf from WNW to NW later next week. Dominant direction from NNW to NNE expected to continue into next weekend. Mix in models gives best wind estimate to mid November climatology, moderate to fresh trades. In the southern hemisphere, a long wave trough is setting up east of New Zealand with a series of short-waves modelled to push through, each associated with a surface low pressure SE to E of New Zealand. This should give well above November south shore averages for the week starting November 15 out about a week. Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty. This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, November 9. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see (in lowercase) http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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07 Nov 2009 01:00:00 GMT

NWS BURKE NCDDC CALDWELL