About Collaborative Surf

02 Jul 2009 01:00:00 GMT

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available. When Pat Caldwell is not available, the latest collaborative forecast will remain posted for 4 days.

Collaborative Surf Table

02 Jul 2009 01:00:00 GMT

FORECAST DATE	SWL HGT	DMNT DIR	DMNT PD	H 1/3	H 1/10	HGT TEND	PROB	WIND SPD	WIND DIR	SPD TEND
1PM 07/01	2	NE	10	2	4	UP		4-6	VRB	SAME
	2	SE	10	2	4	UP
	4	SSW	17	6	10	UP
THU 07/02	2	NE	10	2	4	SAME	LOW	4-6	VRB	SAME
	2	SE	10	2	4	SAME	MED
	4	SSW	14	6	8	DOWN	MED
	2	SSW	18	2	4	UP	LOW
	3	N	9	4	6	UP	LOW
FRI 07/03	3	NE	10	4	6	UP	LOW	11-16	E	UP
	3	SE	10	4	6	UP	LOW
	4	SSW	16	6	8	UP	MED
SAT 07/04	3	NE	10	4	6	SAME	LOW	11-16	E	SAME
	3	SE	10	4	6	SAME	LOW
	3	SSW	15	4	6	DOWN	MED
SUN 07/05	2	NE	9	2	4	DOWN	LOW	11-16	E	SAME
	2	SE	9	2	4	DOWN	LOW
	2	SSW	14	2	4	DOWN	LOW
MON 07/06	2	NE	9	2	4	SAME	LOW	11-16	E	SAME
	2	SE	9	2	4	SAME	LOW
	2	SSW	13	2	4	DOWN	LOW

Collaborative Surf Table Legend

02 Jul 2009 01:00:00 GMT

LEGEND:

SWL HGT	OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR	DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
DMNT PD	DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3	SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10	AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE
HGT TEND	HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB	PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD	OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR	WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND	WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Disclaimer

02 Jul 2009 01:00:00 GMT

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

Collaborative Surf Discussion

02 Jul 2009 01:00:00 GMT

DISCUSSION: Summary: southern shores high into the weekend. Detailed: mid Wednesday on southern shores has high surf from 180-200 degrees with 15-17 second periods. Buoy 51003 suggests a peak in the episode around sundown. This episode is expected to remain high into Thursday with a slow decline as a new episode fills in. A series of fronts and low pressure systems to the E to SE of New Zealand last week is making for back-to-back, above average surf locally this week. A system last week Tuesday into Wednesday just SE of New Zealand had gales to severe gales over a broad fetch beyond beyond 4200 nm from Hawaii. This is the source for the high surf on Wednesday this week. The highest seas were aimed just east of Hawaii. This is giving added energy from 180-185 degrees as the swell trains bend toward Hawaii, added to the energy aimed directly at Hawaii from 185-200 degrees. The next system was stronger with severe gales and pockets of storm-force winds in the 185-200 degree band just SE of New Zealand starting last Thursday. The head of the fetches stayed beyond 4000 nm away. The central pressure dropped to below 960 mb and remained fairly stationary just north of the antarctic ice sheet at about 160°W longitude, as new fronts pushed equatorward on the west side of the broad system with about a day spacing, each backed by the strongest fetches of wind on Thursday into Saturday. Wave models and altimeters showed seas to 35 feet over a wide area last Friday into Saturday. As with the first system, high seas aimed just east of Hawaii, suggesting the resultant local directional band from 180-200 degrees. Long period forerunners are expected locally late Thursday, with high surf by Friday morning. Heights should stay well above the high mark into Saturday, then dropping below the high mark sometime on Sunday. The episode should fall to moderate levels early Monday and small levels by late in the day. Subtle aspects of the life cycle of the event can be tweaked as the swell trains roll under buoy 51003, which gives about a 6-10 hour lead time locally. Stay tuned for forecast updates. Strong trades in the southern hemisphere have generated a short-period swell of 8-11 seconds. Buoy 51003 is registering the start of this episode on Wednesday. The direction is from 140-160 degrees. It should make for mostly small breakers through the period. Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has low surf. Buoy 51000 backup and the Kailua buoy are starting to show 8-11 second energy from 40-60 degrees. This was generated by strong winds west of northern and central California. This episode should hold through the period with a peak on Friday into Saturday, with breakers moderate or less. Large scale flow surrounding Oahu on Wednesday is light trades allowing land and sea breezes. Similar conditions should hold into Thursday. Gentle to moderate trades are expected Friday into Saturday, slightly stronger for Sunday and Monday, still in the moderate category. Minimal breakers expected from this source. Mid Wednesday on northern shores is flat to tiny. A short-lived area of strong winds associated with a low pressure system about 1000 nm north of Hawaii on Monday into Tuesday could make for small surf from 355-010 degrees on Thursday. Otherwise, reefs exposed to the northeast windswell should have small breakers through the period. Into the long range, the California windswell source should fade out next week. No surf expected from north of Hawaii. The southern hemisphere windswell should also back off around Tuesday. More of zonal pattern is setting up in the jet stream for the longitudes of New Zealand eastward 1000 nm, and should lead to a summer background swell pattern next week that makes for small to very occasional moderate breakers for select locations from within 140-220 degrees. Long range forecasts are subject to total recall. This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, July 6. This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275. Additional resources: see (in lowercase) http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

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02 Jul 2009 01:00:00 GMT

NWS FORECASTER AND NCDDC PAT CALDWELL