Hawaiian Marine Products

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Marine Product Dissemination Information

Marine section from the Area Forecast Discussion
issued at: Sep 24, 2017 8:48 PM HST

Light to moderate trades are expected to persist through the first half of the week as a weak surface trough approaches the islands from the east. The wind flow will be light enough for land/sea breezes to setup over some leeward areas through this time. A return of moderate to fresh trades are forecast through the second half of the week as the trough moves through from east to west. Some of the typically windier channel waters may even reach advisory levels Thursday through Friday.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the week with mainly a mix of background southeast and southwest swell energy expected. The highly zonal pattern with systems racing eastward across the southern Pacific continues, with no significant sources shown setting up within Hawaii's swell window over the next several days. The next long-period pulse out of the southwest (210-220 deg) from the Tasman Sea should fill in Tuesday night and continue through midweek, which will lead to a slight increase in surf. This source is from a strong- to gale-force low that moved across the Tasman Sea last week.

Small, short period (10-12 seconds), northwest swell energy will continue and should be enough to keep the surf from going flat along north facing shores through the week. The latest surface analysis and satellite data showed a 998 mb low centered around 1200 nm north- northwest of the islands with a pocket of near gale-force winds focused toward the islands within the 330-340 deg band and seas up to around 10 to 13 ft. This reinforcement out of the north-northwest should reach the local waters late Wednesday and hold through Thursday. A compact storm-force low currently east of Japan is forecast to continue eastward over the upcoming few days toward the Date Line around 35N. Although the GFS/WAVEWATCH III solution suggests a favorable setup for a west-northwest (310-320 deg) swell to fill in across the local waters this coming weekend, the ECMWF is not as aggressive with this system. As a result, forecast confidence for the upcoming weekend remains low at this time. Guidance should come into better agreement over the upcoming couple of days.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through the first half of the week as the trades locally and upstream of the state remain light. Once the aforementioned surface trough moves through from east to west by midweek, small and choppy surf will likely return as the trades fill back in through the second half of the week.

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About the Marine Program

Routine forecast are issued for the Hawaiian Coastal Waters, the Offshore Waters, and High Seas. Coastal Waters are within 40 nautical miles of the main Hawaiian islands. The Offshore area extends from this 40 nautical mile mark to 240 nautical miles of the main Hawaiian islands. The High Seas forecasts are issued for an area that covers approximately 15,000,000 square miles, extends as far north as 30N, and as far south as 25S, and between 120W south of the equator and 140W north of the equator to 160E.
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