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FZHW52 PHFO 
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST FRI FEB 10 2012
OAHU-
330 AM HST FRI FEB 10 2012
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES,
Surf along north facing shores will be 10 to 15 feet through today.
Surf along west facing shores will be 8 to 12 feet through today.
Surf along east facing shores will be 4 to 6 feet, with locally higher sets along shores exposed to the north swell, through today.
Surf along south facing shores will remain 2 feet or less through today.
Outlook through Wednesday Feb 15: surf along north and west facing shores will hold at moderate levels Saturday. A large northwest swell on Sunday will likely produce advisory level surf along north and west facing shores into Tuesday. Still another northwest swell is expected to arrive late Wednesday.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST WED FEB 8 2012
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available.
| FORECAST DATE | SWL HGT | DMNT DIR | DMNT PD | H 1/3 | H 1/10 | HGT TEND | PROB | WIND SPD | WIND DIR | SPD TEND |
| 1PM 02/08 | 14 | NW | 14 | 28 | 36 | DOWN | 22-27 | NNW | SAME | |
| 10 | NNW | 8 | 6 | 8 | SAME | |||||
| 3 | WSW | 9 | 2 | 4 | DOWN | |||||
| THU 02/09 | 13 | NNW | 12 | 24 | 30 | DOWN | HIGH | 11-16 | NE | SAME |
| 10 | N | 8 | 6 | 8 | SAME | LOW | ||||
| FRI 02/10 | 8 | N | 11 | 12 | 16 | DOWN | LOW | 17-21 | ENE | UP |
| 6 | ENE | 6 | 2 | 4 | UP | LOW | ||||
| SAT 02/11 | 6 | NNW | 14 | 10 | 12 | UP | LOW | 17-21 | E | SAME |
| 4 | N | 10 | 6 | 8 | DOWN | LOW | ||||
| 7 | ENE | 7 | 3 | 5 | UP | LOW | ||||
| SUN 02/12 | 9 | NW | 16 | 18 | 22 | UP | LOW | 17-21 | E | SAME |
| 7 | E | 8 | 4 | 6 | UP | LOW | ||||
| MON 02/13 | 9 | NNW | 15 | 16 | 22 | DOWN | LOW | 13-19 | E | DOWN |
| 6 | E | 8 | 3 | 5 | DOWN | LOW |
LEGEND:
| SWL HGT | OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE |
| DMNT DIR | DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS |
| DMNT PD | DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS |
| H1/3 | SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE |
| H1/10 | AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE |
| HGT TEND | HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) |
| PROB | PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW) |
| WIND SPD | OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE |
| WIND DIR | WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS |
| SPD TEND | WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) |
Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
Summary: rough, shorter-period, extra-large surf into Thursday with cleaner, longer-period swell trending up over the weekend.
Detailed: mid Wednesday on northern shores has victory-at-sea conditions with extra-large breakers, meaning surf on outer reefs. The roughness factor and surf heights should trend downward on Thursday.
Extra-tropical cyclonic activity north of Hawaii was the source for the surf on 2/8. Strong to low-end gales from near Hawaii out 1500 nm over the 300-330 degree band on Monday into Tuesday. The associated low pressure center is NNE of Hawaii on Wednesday 2/8 as the fetch favors 330-360 degrees northward out about 1000 nm. The nearby source should keep the breaker size extra-large into Thursday morning from 320-350 degrees, dropping to marginally high around dawn on Friday from 330-360 degrees, then steadily dropping to small levels from 340-360 degrees by Saturday. With a continued wide swath in swell direction and shorter wave periods, breakers should remain disorganized into Friday.
The coastal wave wash pre-dawn Wednesday did not reach beyond common levels occurring often each winter. The Waimea buoy at the 3 am HST 2/8 daily maximum high tide on the north shore showed the magnitude of the wave energy too low for run-up beyond marginal levels. The Waimea buoy indicated that heights ramped up rapidly after the high tide, peaking locally late morning 2/8 with the spring low tide, offsetting coastal impact. For Thursday 2/9 pre-dawn high tide, a similar marginal landward reach of the waves is expected as the magnitudes of both the surf and the tides decrease.
Models show a compact, fast-moving, severe-gale low pressure tracking between 170°W to 150°W on Thursday in an area about 1200 nm away. This could make for a moderate to near high episode on Saturday 2/11 from 325-345 degrees.
Another severe gale has formed east of the Kuril Islands on 2/8. Models show a broad, wide fetch of similar speeds stretching from the Kurils to the dateline by Thursday night, where a low pressure is expected to deepened and track NE towards the eastern Aleutians. The combined pattern should make for a long-lived high surf episode starting Sunday 2/12 from within 305-325 degrees. Too early for arrival specifics.
Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has nil wave energy from 45-90 degrees, although northerly exposures are above average from the nearby sources described above. Similar conditions are expected on Thursday.
The nearby shorter-period energy is expected to veer from NNW to N Thursday into Friday, keeping above average surf for northerly exposures.
High pressure is nosing east from the NW of Hawaii on Wednesday and is predicted to have its axis closest to Hawaii on Thursday. This should coincide with a minimum of wind speeds from within 30-60 degrees. The forecast track of the surface high pressure puts the cell NE of Hawaii by Friday where it is expected to strengthen and remain stationary into the weekend. This should bring back moderate to fresh trades. Windswell from 60-90 degrees should slowly build into the weekend. Models are showing a decline in trades and windswell starting Monday 2/13.
Mid Wednesday on southern shores has remnant, short-period waves from 235-270 degrees. Heights should fall on Thursday.
No other sources are expected for southern shores this period.
Into the long range, no surf from southern hemisphere sources are expected 2/13-18.
In the northern hemisphere, the jet stream is modelled to favor troughs for longitudes from Japan to near Hawaii, and a ridge to the NE of Hawaii. This should make for average to above average winter surf for north shores, with peak days to extra-large levels from with WNW to NNW 2/13-19. Local winds at a minimum as the jet trough is closest, as suggested for Tuesday to Wednesday 2/14-15, and favoring moderate to fresh trades toward the weekend 2/16-18.
Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty.
This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, February 10.
This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.
Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
NWS Forecaster and Pat Caldwell, Pacific/Hawaii Liaison Office, NCDDC
Additional Resources:
| Waimea Buoy | Kailua Buoy | Lanai Buoy | Barbers Point #2 | Pauwela, Maui | Kilo Nalu | Buoy 51001 | Buoy 51101 | Buoy 51000 | Buoy 51100 | Buoy 51002 | Buoy 51003 | Buoy 51004 |
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