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SRFHFO

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
411 PM HST TUE NOV 20 2018

OAHU-
411 PM HST TUE NOV 20 2018

Surf along north facing shores will be 5 to 8 feet tonight, lowering to 4 to 6 feet Wednesday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 4 to 7 feet tonight, lowering to 3 to 5 feet Wednesday.

Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Wednesday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet tonight, rising to 4 to 6 feet Wednesday.

Outlook through Tuesday November 27: The current northwest swell will begin to decrease tonight and fade out on Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will be on the increase Wednesday and may near advisory levels Wednesday night into Thursday due to strong trades over and upstream of the islands. A moderate northwest swell is forecast to begin filling in on Saturday with a larger and longer period northwest swell expected Saturday night and Sunday. Advisory-level surf is expected with this longer period swell. The largest swell of the season will be possible next Monday with heights potentially exceeding warning levels. Specifics will come in later forecasts as confidence rises.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.


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SRDHFO

COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
314 PM HST MON NOV 19 2018

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
11/19
3N1046DOWN13-19ENEUP
6ENE724SAME
1SW1723UP
TUE
11/20
5NW14810SAMEHIGH17-21ENEUP
7ENE735UPMED
1SW1513SAMELOW
WED
11/21
3NNW1246DOWNLOW19-23EUP
9ENE868UPLOW
1SW1413DOWNLOW
THU
11/22
2N1124DOWNLOW19-23EDOWN
9E868DOWNLOW
1SW1723UPLOW
FRI
11/23
7E846DOWNLOW7-10EDOWN
1SW1513SAMELOW
SAT
11/24
2NW1735UPLOW7-10ESAME
5E946SAMELOW
1SW1413DOWNLOW

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii

Oahu Surf Climatology

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY:. North side below average with east side pushing above.

DETAILED:. Mid Monday on northern shores has breakers from 340-010 degrees at levels below the November average. An increase is due overnight Monday.

A low pressure tracked east along 45N from the Kuril Islands 11/15 and obtained storm-force over a compact fetch of 305-310 degrees on 11/16 in an area beyond 2200 nm away. The system continued on an easterly track with a weakening trend. Gales over the 305-320 degree band reached the Date Line 11/17. Near gales over the 320-340 degree band were closest to Hawaii about 1200 nm out 11/18. The system moved east of the Hawaii swell window 11/19.

NW NOAA buoys 51001 and 51101 11/19 mid day show a rise in the 14-17s bands. The event should trend the surf up locally near sundown 11/19. It should climb to just under the November average by dawn Tuesday 11/20 and hold about the same through the day 11/20 from 305-330 degrees. The event should trend down late Tuesday to small levels on Wednesday 11/21. Surf is expected at a seasonal minimum 11/22-24.

Models show a new low obtaining storm force in the Kamchatka corner 11/21. Long period forerunners from 305-310 degrees are estimated for late Saturday 11/24. Models suggest NW surf above average locally by dawn 11/25.

Mid Monday on eastern shores has breakers from 45-70 degrees below the trade windswell average. An increase is predicted for Tuesday.

See the latest NWS State Forecast discussion for details on the large scale and local weather patterns affecting winds and skies over Hawaii.

ASCAT satellite 11/18-19 showed the source zone for trade wind waves to the E to NE of Hawaii had trended down to moderate or less wind speeds. The PacIOOS/CDIP Mokapu buoy off east Oahu 11/19 shows the wind waves declining.

Surface high pressure near 40N, 160W 11/19 is modelled to shift SE to 30N, 150W 11/20-21. A long fetch of fresh to strong breezes is expected to set up out 1000 nm to the E to ENE of Hawaii.

Breakers from wind waves are expected to trend up 11/20-21 to levels above average from 60-90 degrees by late 11/21. It should remain elevated into Thursday as the local wind decreases.

Models show gentle winds locally for 11/23-24, though east of 155W fresh to strong trades are expected to hold. This should keep breakers near to above the average 11/23-24 from 70-90 degrees.

Mid Monday on southern shores has breakers from 190-220 degrees above the November average of near nil. Similar surf is likely for Tuesday.

Gales continued active with the 50-70S latitudinal band south of Australia to SE of New Zealand 11/12-16. Low, long-period swell are expected to hold through the period with subtle ups and downs. Zones of high refraction should hold at small levels below the summer background while most breaker zones remain flat to tiny. Swell direction should favor 190-220 degrees through the period.

Into the long range, a compact near gale in the subtropics NE of New Zealand 11/17 could bring a low, shorter-period event from 160-180 degrees 11/25-27 a pinch above nil. Otherwise, the wave sources within 50-70S for the Hawaii swell window are modelled to be in austral summer mode this week. This would mean typical nil November conditions 11/28-12/1.

East side should trend down to average 11/25 and below average 11/26-27.

In the north Pacific, the jet stream is modelled to shift southward to a more common winter position centered near 40N. A series of severe-gale to hurricane-force systems are modelled to be steered eastward over the central Pacific by the jet. This should make for back- to- back winter-caliber episodes starting late 11/25 through 12/1 within WNW to NNW.

Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, November 21.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php

NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

Additional Resources:

Waimea Buoy Kailua Buoy Kaumalapau SW Lanai Buoy Barbers Point, Kalaeloa Buoy Pauwela, Maui Hilo Bay Buoy Kaneohe Bay Buoy Hanalei Kauai Buoy Pearl Harbor Entrance
Buoy 51001 Buoy 51101 Buoy 51000 Buoy 51100 Buoy 51002 Buoy 51003 Buoy 51004

Latest North Pacific Surface Analysis

Upcoming tides for select Hawaii locations

Tides for Honolulu

Tide tables for Hawaii