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SRFHFO

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
339 PM HST SUN JUN 24 2018

OAHU-
339 PM HST SUN JUN 24 2018

Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Monday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Monday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 6 feet through Monday.

Surf along north facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Monday.

Outlook through Sunday July 01: Rough surf will continue along east facing shores through the week. Two overlapping, long-period south swells are expected this week with the first one filling in Tuesday and the second through the day Wednesday. Surf will near, and possibly reach, advisory level along south facing shores Wednesday through Thursday as the second swell fills in and peaks.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.


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SRDHFO

COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
229 PM HST FRI JUN 22 2018

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
06/22
5E512UP11-16EUP
SAT
06/23
7E634UPLOW17-21EUP
SUN
06/24
8E746UPLOW17-21EDOWN
MON
06/25
7E735DOWNLOW17-21EDOWN
2SE1224UPLOW
TUE
06/26
7E735UPLOW17-21EUP
2SE1124SAMELOW
2S1635UPLOW
WED
06/27
8E857UPLOW17-21EUP
2SE1124SAMELOW
3S1457SAMELOW
2SSW1957UPLOW

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii

Oahu Surf Climatology

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY... Trade windswell should dominate into Tuesday when the south side increases.

DETAILED:. Mid Friday on northern shores has summery conditions. Flat to tiny surf is expected to hold on Saturday.

A weak low pressure tracked from near 35N on the Date Line 6/20 to a position near 45N 150W 6/22. There were fresh to strong winds over a narrow, short-lived fetch aimed at Oahu 5/21-22. The travel distance is too far for the windswell to manifest into breakers surpassing tiny from 345-360 degrees 6/23-25.

Mid Friday on eastern shores has breakers below the trade windswell average. An increase is predicted for Saturday.

The table above gives local fresh trades 6/23-27. See the latest NWS State Forecast Discussions regarding the subtle maximums for 6/23-24 and 6/26-28.

ASCAT satellite 6/21-22 showed a long, wide fetch of fresh trades with pockets to strong within 135-155W due E to ENE of Hawaii. This should trend the dominant wave period up into 6/23 locally as the fresher winds overcome Oahu from the east. Breakers should climb above average by late Saturday and hold into Sunday from 60-90 degrees.

A subtle minimum to local trades and breakers is predicted for Monday 6/25. Models show an enhanced area of fresh to strong breezes moving west from 140W 6/25 reaching Oahu 6/26 in the PM. This should trend up the local winds and breakers into Wednesday 6/27 from 60-90 degrees.

Mid Friday on southern shores has breakers as low as they go for peak season. Low heights are predicted to continue on Saturday.

A strong surface high pressure in the SE Pacific 6/17-21 is expected to make for a long-lived SE trade windswell locally starting late Sunday and holding into mid week. Error bars are large given the windswell angle within 110-140 degrees, which is mostly shadowed on Oahu by Hawaiian islands to the ESE.

A pair of southern hemispheric mid latitude cyclonic sources 6/18-22 are the focus for the increase in surf mid next week.

The first source was a captured fetch of gales over the 40-60S band within 150-180W associated with a front pushing equatorward. Long period forerunners should make for inconsistent sets Tuesday 6/26 from 180-190 degrees. It should peak above average on Wednesday as a new event fills in.

The second source was stronger, broader, and acted upon existing seas from the former. The strongest phase with winds within severe gales to storm force occurred late 6/19 into 6/20. The strongest winds were south of 55S west of 150W. Highest seas aimed at the Americas. The system slowed in track and weakened in intensity 6/21-22.

Long-period forerunners Wednesday 6/27 from 180-195 degrees could produce infrequent sets above average.

Into the long range, the second source should be filled in and peak on 6/28 from 180-190 degrees. Heights should slowly trend down to near average by 6/30 AM and linger within background to average 7/1 from 175-185 degrees.

Models show a mid latitude cyclone tracking east from S of Tasmania 6/23-26. Low, long-period swell from the Tasman Sea is possible locally around 7/1-3. Models show a long-wave jet stream trough setting up east of New Zealand 6/25-28, that could keep active 185-200 degree swell near or above average locally within 7/3-6.

Trade windswell is expected to hold above average 6/28-29 with a trend down to average by 6/30 from 60-90 degrees.

No surf is expected for north shores from mid latitude source. The active E windswell should give low breakers for select locations.

Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, July 2.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php

NCEI Pat Caldwell

Additional Resources:

Waimea Buoy Kailua Buoy Lanai Buoy Barbers Point #2 Pauwela, Maui Hilo Bay Buoy Kaneohe Bay Buoy Hanalei Kauai Buoy Kilo Nalu
Buoy 51001 Buoy 51101 Buoy 51000 Buoy 51100 Buoy 51002 Buoy 51003 Buoy 51004

Latest North Pacific Surface Analysis

Upcoming tides for select Hawaii locations

Tides for Honolulu

Tide tables for Hawaii