Surf Forecast for O`ahu

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SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
406 AM HST WED MAY 4 2016

OAHU-
406 AM HST WED MAY 4 2016

Surf along north facing shores will be 4 to 7 feet through Thursday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Thursday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet today, lowering to 2 to 4 feet Thursday.

Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Thursday.

Outlook through Wednesday May 11: a small west-northwest swell will continue to fill this morning and peak sometime later today through tonight before slowly easing Thursday through Friday. Moderate to strong northerly winds combined with building surf will lead to rough conditions along north facing beaches late Friday night through much of Saturday. Surf will gradually begin to ease by the end of the weekend and into next week along north facing beaches. A long-period moderate south swell will arrive Friday and persist through the weekend.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.


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COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
318 PM HST MON MAY 2 2016

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT

300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
05/02
3NNW1135DOWN13-19ENESAME
6ENE613UP
2SSW1535SAME
TUE
05/03
2NNW1023DOWNLOW13-19ENESAME
6ENE835UPLOW
2SSW1435DOWNMED
WED
05/04
3WNW1757UPLOW11-16EDOWN
6ENE835DOWNLOW
2S1324SAMELOW
THU
05/05
3WNW1446SAMELOW7-10SESAME
4ENE824DOWNLOW
2S1223SAMELOW
FRI
05/06
3WNW1235DOWNLOW4-6VRBSAME
4E824SAMELOW
2S1824UPLOW
SAT
05/07
4NNW1157UPLOW11-16NEUP
3E823DOWNLOW
3S1757SAMELOW

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME

BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Discussion: summary: Peak days of remote long-period swell from northern and southern hemispheres.

Detailed: Mid Monday on northern shores has declining, shorter-period breakers from 320-345 degrees. It should fade out on Tuesday.

A fast-moving gale NNW of Hawaii 4/28 reached the eastern Aleutians late 4/29. It created a Christmas tree time series signature, rising rapidly Sunday morning, peaking Sunday late afternoon, and falling off sharply into Monday from 320-345 degrees. Tiny remnants are possible on Tuesday.

Further west, a low pressure occluded NE of Hokkaido, Japan 4/29. The system tracked NE into 4/30 with storm-force winds over a compact fetch within 305-310 degrees. Seas grew to near 25 feet in a region beyond 2400 nm away from Hawaii 4/30. The system turned more east and weakened rapidly 5/1 as it approached 50°N, 170°E.

Low, long-period swell is predicted to pick up locally mid Wednesday from 305-310 degrees. It should hold near the early may average late Wednesday through Thursday, then decline on Friday from the same direction. With the long travel, arrival frequency of sets should be slow.

Models show a new low pressure forming late Tuesday just east of the dateline near 40°N, followed by a strong surface high pressure. The low is modelled to track NE with a trailing front approaching 165°W on Thursday. This is expected to set up a wide, long fetch of strong breezes, with pockets to near gale, over the 315-340 degree band nosing within 700 nm Thursday.

Shorter-period breakers are predicted to build locally on Saturday. It should hold into Sunday.

Mid Monday on eastern shores has breakers below the trade windswell average. Surf should rise on Tuesday.

A strong high pressure cell to 1033 mb near 155°W 5/2 is slowly tracking east along 35°N. A remnant front stretches from WSW to ENE from just north of Hawaii towards Mexico, north of which a ribbon of fresh to strong breezes are aimed at Hawaii. This should increase breakers on Tuesday from within 40-70 degrees to levels near or a notch above the trade windswell average. It should hold into Wednesday.

See the latest NWS state forecast discussion regarding the break in the trades later in the week. To the east, fresh trades should continue east of 150°W 5/2-5, keeping breakers from windswell out 0f 60-90 degrees near the average for Thursday into Saturday with a downward trend.

Mid Monday on southern exposures has background level south swell with inconsistent small breakers for top spots. Similar surf is expected on Tuesday.

The pacioos/cdip buoy off SW Oahu showed a trend up in the 16-18 second band on 5/1 and up in the 14-16 second band 5/2. The magnitude is no more than the energy levels last week, that is, south swell seasonal background conditions. The source was a broad area of low pressure SE of New Zealand 4/24-25 with central pressure dropping to 953 mb. As with many sources in this area, the aim of highest seas was SE of Hawaii. Surf should linger below average into mid week.

A new low pressure gained intensity near 60s, 180°E 4/29. It tracked NE with gales to storm-force winds following a cold front, which nosed to near 35°S. The aim of highest seas was also SE of Hawaii, but closer than the 4/24-25 event.

Wave watch iii places deep water swell of 5 feet at 16 seconds from 180 degrees off samoa late Tuesday. The swell is predicted to slowly arrive locally Friday with inconsistent sets. It should be be filled in by Saturday from 175-190 degrees, peaking late Saturday above the seasonal south swell average, and slowly dropping Sunday from the same direction.

Into the long range, the south swell should trend back to background levels by 5/9 and remain below average 5/10-13.

In the northern hemisphere, the short-period NNW weekend event should hold on Sunday with potential for added moderate period NNW to N swell late Sunday into Monday. The latter is associated with a gale in the models placed near 50°N well north of Hawaii late Thursday into Friday. It could keep small NNW to N breakers into 5/10.

Models suggest breakers from windswell near average from within 30-60 degrees 5/8-10.

Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, May 4.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

NWS Forecaster and NCEI PAT CALDWELL

Additional Resources:

Waimea Buoy Kailua Buoy Lanai Buoy Barbers Point #2 Pauwela, Maui Hilo Bay Buoy Kaneohe Bay Buoy Hanalei Kauai Buoy Kilo Nalu
Buoy 51001 Buoy 51101 Buoy 51000 Buoy 51100 Buoy 51002 Buoy 51003 Buoy 51004

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