Surf Forecast for O`ahu

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SRFHFO

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
336 PM HST THU DEC 14 2017

OAHU-
336 PM HST THU DEC 14 2017

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES

Surf along north facing shores will be 15 to 20 feet tonight, lowering to 8 to 12 feet Friday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 8 to 12 feet tonight, dropping to 6 to 8 feet Friday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 6 feet tonight, rising to 7 to 9 feet Friday.

Surf along south facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Friday.

Outlook through Thursday December 21: The current north-northwest swell will slowly subside through Saturday. Strengthening winds will cause rough surf on east facing shores into the weekend. A moderate northwest swell is expected late in this weekend into Monday, but should remain below advisory level. A moderate north-northwest swell is forecast to arrive Tuesday, peak Tuesday night, then slowly lower through Wednesday night. A larger, north swell may impact the area beginning Thursday night.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.


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SRDHFO

COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
241 PM HST WED DEC 13 2017

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
12/13
16NW173644SAME11-16NSAME
THU
12/14
12NW152432DOWNMED22-27NEUP
9NE735UPLOW
FRI
12/15
6NW141012DOWNMED19-23NEDOWN
11NE9810UPLOW
SAT
12/16
4NNW1268DOWNLOW4-6VRBSAME
6ENE968SAMELOW
SUN
12/17
5WNW14810UPLOW7-10SUP
4ENE946DOWNLOW
MON
12/18
5NW13810DOWNLOW4-6VRBSAME
2NNW1724UPLOW
3ENE934DOWNLOW
1SSW1723UPLOW

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii

Oahu Surf Climatology

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY:. Settling down from NW to N toward weekend as NE exposures rise.

DETAILED:. Mid Wednesday on northern shores has extra-large to marginally giant breakers from 310-350 degrees. Heights should remain extra- large into Thursday.

NOAA NW Hawaii buoys from midnight to noon 12/13 show a rise then a steady signature in the long period energy of 15-19 seconds from 310-320 degrees. This energy was generated by severe gales to hurricane- force winds over a vast area west of the Date Line to the NW Pacific basin 12/9-11. With the large fetch and long distance, this event should be long-lived. Extra-large breakers should hold into Thursday with a steady decline to near the Fall average on Friday morning. Surf should drop to small levels from 310-320 degrees by Saturday.

The PacIOOS nearshore buoys 12/13 off north shores of Kauai and Oahu show the rise in the 14-22 second band energy toward noon from the aforementioned NW remote source. The wave energy in the 10-14 second bands are also active 12/13 from 315-350 degrees. The latter was generated by gales east of the Date Line 12/11-12 nosing south of 30N over the 315-340 degree band to within 500 nm of Hawaii. At the same time, near gales covered a long fetch 12/11-12 over the 330-360 degree band north of 30N to the Aleutians. Short- to moderate period swell from 315-350 degrees should remain above average with a steady decline on Thursday. Below average breakers from 330-360 degrees should hold into Saturday.

The next pattern out west for waves was a short-fetch of severe gales hugging Japan 12/11-12. With the long travel distance, only 1-2 feet long-period WNW swell is expected from this source late Saturday into Sunday. Surf from another source is expected on Sunday.

The complex area of low pressure with a center near the western Aleutians and a front stretching to the subtropics 12/12-13 is modelled to move east, crossing the Date Line Thursday night. Near gale to low-end gales over the 300-320 degree band south of 40N are expected to reach about 1200 nm away early Friday. This would be just over a 2 day travel, so the surf should be climbing mid morning Sunday. Peak seas of the source are only expected to near 16 feet near the Date Line, so the associated surf locally should remain below the Fall average. It should peak Sunday night and slowly drop on Monday.

Stronger winds to severe gales are modelled 12/15-16 associated with the same weather pattern but north of 40N to the Aleutians near to east of the Date Line. The highest aim is predicted at targets NE of Hawaii. It should be close enough to the Hawaii great circle to bring low, long-period swell from 320-350 degrees rising Monday afternoon. It should peak 12/19 below average.

Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has nil short-period energy from 45-90 degrees. An increase is expected on Thursday. Select exposures have above average breakers from refracting and diffraction NW to NNW swell aforementioned.

See the latest NWS State Forecast Discussion regarding the trend in the local winds and weather into the weekend.

An upper level cut-off low is predicted to form just NE of the Big Island on Thursday with a slow W-component drift into Saturday. A surface high pressure moving east from NW of Hawaii 12/13, in combination with the low to the east, is modelled to set up a 500 nm long fetch of strong breezes over the 30-50 degree band, nosing into Oahu by Thursday. Breakers from windswell should climb Thursday to above the trade windswell average by the evening. Heights should hold above average into Saturday morning from 30-50 degrees.

Fresh to strong ENE trades east of the low pressure to the immediate east of Hawaii 12/15-16 should keep windswell surf above average 12/16 from 50-90 degrees. Heights should slowly trend down Sunday into Monday.

Mid Wednesday on southern shores has near nil energy from the southern hemisphere. Heights should remain at the seasonal minimum on Thursday.

Other than E windswell for the weekend at select exposures, the next waves for the south shore are predicted to slowly fill in late Monday from 190-200 degrees, generated by gales SSE of New Zealand 12/10-11.

Into the long range, the low SSW event should peak 12/19 and drop 12/20.

In the northern hemisphere, strong to near gales north of 30N to the immediate NW to N of Hawaii 12/17-19 could bring in a short- period NNW to N event to the Fall average building Tuesday 12/19 and holding into 12/20. A storm-force system in the Kamchatka corner 12/17-18 could have long-period, near to above average NW surf locally within 12/20-22.

Fresh to strong local winds from within SSW to NNW associated with nearby winter low pressure could make short-period windswell within 12/20-22. It is too early for specifics.

Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, December 15.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php

NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

Additional Resources:

Waimea Buoy Kailua Buoy Lanai Buoy Barbers Point #2 Pauwela, Maui Hilo Bay Buoy Kaneohe Bay Buoy Hanalei Kauai Buoy Kilo Nalu
Buoy 51001 Buoy 51101 Buoy 51000 Buoy 51100 Buoy 51002 Buoy 51003 Buoy 51004

Latest North Pacific Surface Analysis

Upcoming tides for select Hawaii locations

Tides for Honolulu

Tide tables for Hawaii