Surf Forecast for O`ahu

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SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
339 AM HST WED AUG 23 2017

OAHU-
339 AM HST WED AUG 23 2017

Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today through Thursday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet today and 4 to 6 feet Thursday.

Surf along north facing shores will be 2 feet or less today through Thursday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 2 feet or less today through Thursday.

Outlook through Wednesday August 30: Relatively small surf will continue across all shores through Wednesday of next week. A series of small background southerly swells will keep the surf from being flat along south facing shores. The eastern shoreline will see a slight rise during the second half of the week from the stregthening trades, and then toward the weekend, with the arrival of a longer period swell from tropical cyclone activity in the eastern Pacific.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.


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COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
158 PM HST MON AUG 21 2017

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at

300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
08/21
4ENE712UP11-16ENEUP
2SE912DOWN
TUE
08/22
5ENE724UPLOW13-19ENEUP
2SSE1124UPMED
WED
08/23
7ENE846UPLOW17-21ENEUP
2SE1124SAMELOW
THU
08/24
7ENE846SAMELOW17-21ENESAME
2E1335UPLOW
2SE1024SAMELOW
FRI
08/25
7ENE846DOWNLOW13-19EDOWN
3E1246DOWNLOW
2SE1024SAMELOW
SAT
08/26
4ENE934DOWNLOW11-16EDOWN
2SE1024SAMELOW
2SW1535UPLOW

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii

Oahu Surf Climatology

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same

beach at different break areas.

DISCUSSION:

SUMMARY... East and south sides picking up.

DETAILED:.

Mid Monday on eastern shores has near nil breakers from trade

windswell. An increase is expected on Tuesday.

See the latest NWS State Forecast Discussion for an explanation of

the local weather and winds.

Trades winds within 135-150W began trending up Saturday night. The

enhanced trades are expected to shift westward Tuesday. A

long, wide fetch of fresh trades should build breakers back to

average or a notch above average by Wednesday and holding into

Friday.

See the latest National Hurricane Center for the latest track and

trend of hurricane Kenneth.

Kenneth became a major hurricane over the weekend well ESE of

Oahu to the SW of Baja. Models show a more northward component to

the track and a weakening trend 8/21-24. Wave Watch III has been

biased high in swell height during the onset stage for the local

output point off Oahu from previous remote tropical cyclone

sources. The longer-period swell from Kenneth could pick up as

early as late Wednesday, peak late Thursday from 85-95 degrees at

levels the same or lower than the trade windswell...and slowly

decline into the weekend from 70-90 degrees.

Mid Monday on southern shores has near flat conditions. An

increase is predicted for Tuesday.

Strong trades in the austral longitudes of French Polynesia

8/14-18 should provide the dominant background summer surf this

week from 140-170 degrees. Shadowing by the Tuamotu archipelago

increases error bars. Buoy 51002 south of Oahu 8/21 shows an

increase in the 11-12 second band from this source mid morning.

The event should fill in late Monday and hold through the week.

A low pressure over New Zealand produced a wide fetch of gales in

the Tasman Sea 8/18-19 that nosed into the subtropics. Shadowing

by islands of the SW Pacific and New Zealand limit surf potential

locally. Long period swell is expected to fill in locally late

Friday and peak late Saturday from 208-220 degrees.

Into the long range...the Tasman event should stay near or a notch

less than the summer average into Sunday 8/27 then slowly decline

8/28. A compact storm-force system SW of Easter Island 8/19-20

could add some low...long-period swell from 140-160 degrees

filling in 8/27...peaking 8/28 near the summer average...and

dropping 8/29.

Easterly windswell should drop below average by 8/27 and remain

low 8/28-29.

Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday...August 23.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of

NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov

or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:

See http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php

NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

Additional Resources:

Waimea Buoy Kailua Buoy Lanai Buoy Barbers Point #2 Pauwela, Maui Hilo Bay Buoy Kaneohe Bay Buoy Hanalei Kauai Buoy Kilo Nalu
Buoy 51001 Buoy 51101 Buoy 51000 Buoy 51100 Buoy 51002 Buoy 51003 Buoy 51004

Latest North Pacific Surface Analysis

Upcoming tides for select Hawaii locations

Tides for Honolulu

Tide tables for Hawaii