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SRFHFO

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
327 PM HST TUE JAN 16 2018

OAHU-
327 PM HST TUE JAN 16 2018

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES

Surf along north facing shores will be 9 to 12 feet tonight, then building to 15 to 20 feet Wednesday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 8 to 10 feet tonight, then building to 10 to 15 feet Wednesday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet tonight, rising to 3 to 5 feet Wednesday.

Surf along south facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Wednesday.

Outlook through Tuesday January 23: The new northwest swell arriving tonight will subside and shift from northwest to north by Thursday. A series of moderate northwest swells from late this week through early next week will produce surf well below the advisory threshold. Strong to near gale force trade winds will likely bring advisory-level surf to east facing shores from late Wednesday through Friday.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.


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SRDHFO

COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
301 PM HST TUE JAN 16 2018

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
01/16
7NW141216DOWN11-16NEUP
WED
01/17
10NNW152026UPMED22-27ENEUP
9ENE746UPLOW
THU
01/18
6NNW131012DOWNLOW25-31ESAME
12ENE9812UPLOW
FRI
01/19
3N1146DOWNLOW17-21EDOWN
10E10812SAMELOW
SAT
01/20
2NW1635UPLOW11-16ESAME
7E10810DOWNLOW
SUN
01/21
4NNW1468SAMELOW11-16ESAME
3WNW2168UPLOW
6E1068DOWNLOW

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii

Oahu Surf Climatology

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY:. Sharp NNW rise Wednesday as rough trade windswell builds.

DETAILED:. Mid Tuesday on northern shores has slowly declining breakers from 310-360 degrees at levels above the active season, Sep-May, average. Heights are expected to increase Wednesday morning.

A low pressure system raced east from the Date Line along 40N Monday gaining hurricane force as it approached 170W. By Tuesday morning the low center was moving east of the longitude of Oahu. Highest seas of 25-30 feet have been aimed NE of Hawaii. Seas within 15-20 feet with better aim at Hawaii nosed to within 800 nm early Tuesday.

The proximity and fast track across the Hawaii swell window should lead to a Christmas tree wave height time series. The sharp rise is due near dawn Wednesday from 320-340 degrees with a peak in the early afternoon well above the average. Heights should fall steadily to near the average from 320-350 degrees on Thursday morning then below average by Thursday PM. Small surf should linger into Friday from 340-360 degrees.

Several sources are on tap for rising surf within Saturday to Sunday. The events are expected to be below average.

A gale low pressure in the far NW Pacific 1/16 is tracking NNE toward the western Aleutians. The seas over the 315-330 degree band from beyond 2200 nm away are modelled to get a boost from a new low pressure forming near 45N on the Date Line 1/18. The new compact severe gale is modelled to rapidly track east though bring seas to within 1500 nm.

Long-period forerunners from 315-325 degrees are due locally Saturday PM with a slow rise of small surf. The event is expected to peak on Sunday from 320-340 degrees. It should be short-lived.

A hurricane-force system is modelled to form east of Japan 1/17 with a NE track. A wide fetch over the 290-310 degree band is expected to set up 1/17-19 as the low occludes. The low center is predicted to track N and weaken on 1/19-20, keeping the head of the fetch beyond 1800 nm away.

Long-period forerunners from 290-310 degrees are predicted to slowly build the surf Sunday PM. More comments below in the long range discussion.

Mid Tuesday on eastern shores has below average windswell from 20-90 degrees. An increase is predicted for Wednesday.

See the latest NWS State Forecast Discussion regarding the weather features driving new trade wind event and uncertainties on strength of local trades going into the weekend.

The upstream fetch starting 1/17 to the E to NE of fresh to strong trades is modelled to be short. This should keep the rough breakers near the trade windswell average for Wednesday with an upward trend.

The fetch of strong to near gale trades is modelled to expand to the E to NE well beyond 800 nm by Thursday and hold into the weekend, even though local winds subside.

Above average windswell from 50-90 degrees is due by Wednesday night, with well above average windswell Thursday PM through Friday. Heights should remain above average with a downward trend from 70-90 degrees over the weekend.

Mid Tuesday on southern shores has seasonally minimal surf. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday.

Refracting and diffracting easterly windswell should top the heights for Thursday into the weekend.

Into the long range, a broad area of low-end gales east of New Zealand associated with a cut-off upper level low held nearly stationary 1/13-15. Moderate period swell of 13-15 second from 175-190 degrees is expected make small breakers 1/22-24. An out- of-season severe gale in the Tasman Sea nosed into the subtropics and could add to the small breakers next week with energy from 208-220 degrees 1/24-26.

From the north Pacific, the long travel distance for the new WNW swell building Sunday should keep breakers near the active season average. It should be long-lived, peaking 1/22 and slowly declining to 1/24 from WNW to NW.

A shorter-period N event is also shown in the models for 1/22-24.

Easterly windswell should hold near the average 1/22-24.

Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, January 19.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php

NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

Additional Resources:

Waimea Buoy Kailua Buoy Lanai Buoy Barbers Point #2 Pauwela, Maui Hilo Bay Buoy Kaneohe Bay Buoy Hanalei Kauai Buoy Kilo Nalu
Buoy 51001 Buoy 51101 Buoy 51000 Buoy 51100 Buoy 51002 Buoy 51003 Buoy 51004

Latest North Pacific Surface Analysis

Upcoming tides for select Hawaii locations

Tides for Honolulu

Tide tables for Hawaii