SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
321 PM HST TUE OCT 6 2015
321 PM HST TUE OCT 6 2015
Surf along north facing shores will be 3 to 6 feet through Wednesday.
Surf along west facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Wednesday.
Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 6 feet through Wednesday.
Surf along south facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet through Wednesday.
Outlook through Tuesday October 13: another small to moderate north-northwest swell is expected to fill in over the weekend. A reinforcing southwest swell is expected beginning Friday, which should persist through the weekend. A small west swell is possible over the weekend beginning Saturday.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
324 PM HST MON OCT 5 2015
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/
|SWL HGT||OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|DMNT DIR||DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS|
|DMNT PD||DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS|
|H1/3||SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE|
|H1/10||AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE|
|HGT TEND||HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
|PROB||PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)|
|WIND SPD||OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|WIND DIR||WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS|
|SPD TEND||WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
Discussion: summary: Steady surf from north and south.
Detailed: Mid Monday on northern shores has declining, short- to moderate- period surf from 355-020 degrees. Heights are expected to drop a notch on Tuesday.
A nearly stationary near gale low pressure cell near 40°N, 150°W since 10/3 has aimed highest seas west of Oahu. Swell aimed at Oahu plus angular spreading should give way to a boost up by Wednesday from 350-010 degrees, taking heights near the October average. It should slowly decline Thursday into Friday, down to small levels by late Friday. It should linger the same on Saturday as a new event fills in.
Models show a broad jet stream trough forming near the central to eastern Aleutians 10/8-10. At the surface a low pressure system near 40°N, 160°W is modelled to shift eastward as an associated front backed by gales pushes to the SE reaching about 700 nm away 10/9. Highest seas Thursday into Friday are predicted to reach near 25 feet in an area about 1000 nm away, though aimed best east of Oahu. This source should fill in Saturday afternoon from 330-350 degrees, reaching heights near the October average by sundown. It should be larger on Sunday from the same direction.
Mid Monday on eastern shores has near nil wave energy from 50-90 degrees. More northerly exposures are higher with a trend as described above.
With the surface high pressure well NW of Hawaii and low pressure to the NNE, the local wind and windswell have more northerly component than usual. This pattern should continue on Thursday with choppy breakers from within 010-040 degrees.
Tropical storm Oho S of the Big Island is modelled to track NE starting 10/6. Based on the forecast of a fast track to the NE once Oho is north of the Big Island shadow 10/8, limited fetch duration would give way to negligible surf from within NE to ESE Thursday into Friday on Oahu.
Gentle to moderate trades with below average windswell from within 45-90 degrees is predicted for Friday into the weekend.
Mid Monday on southern shores has infrequent, long-period breakers from 180-220 degrees. An increase is possible on Tuesday.
Tropical system Oho has been too east of the South Point, Big Island shadow to Oahu to expect surf locally beyond tiny to small from 140-150 degrees Tuesday. The location of Oho is trending further into the shadow.
Tropical cyclone Choi-Wan in the western tropical Pacific is modelled to give low, long-period surf from 270-280 degrees locally starting Saturday.
An active austral spring cyclonic mode began within the longitudes of Tasmania to south of French Polynesia 9/26. It is modelled to hold another week. This should make for a spell of steady surf locally lasting into the second half of October. For all of the winter-caliber surface low pressures so far, the highest seas were mostly west to east, aimed at the Americas. Angular spreading should allow overlapping long-period episodes locally this week through next week. For all the sources, the long travel distance beyond 4500 nm should make for inconsistent arrivals of the higher sets.
Seas to 30 feet near 60s to the SE of New Zealand a week ago 9/28-29 should give way to the start of a new episode locally on Tuesday 10/6 from 180-200 degrees. Heights could approach the March to October, seasonal south shore average into Wednesday.
A pair of winter-caliber low pressures in the southern Tasman sea 10/1 and 10/2 should give way to wave energy from 208-220 degrees locally starting Friday 10/9. This energy should keep surf near the summer average through the weekend.
Into the long range, the second Tasman low pressure cell maintained strength as it entered the swell window SE of New Zealand 10/3. The system weakened steadily 10/3-5 as it moved east. A large area of seas over 30 feet aimed at the Americas 10/3. This should broaden the swell direction over the weekend starting 10/10, adding 180-200 degrees to the existing Tasman swell of 208-220 degrees, and the 270-280 degree swell from Choi-Wan. The mix of sources should increase set arrival consistency 10/10-11.
Typhoon Choi-Wan is modelled to race NNW towards the Kuril Islands 10/6-8. It should keep low swell from 280-305 degrees early next week 10/12-14.
The Aleutian low north of Hawaii in the models for 10/8-10 should keep surf above the October average for 10/11-12 from 330-350 degrees. Hints of more NNW swell later next week 10/14-15.
Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.
This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, October 7.
This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to firstname.lastname@example.org or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.
Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
|Waimea Buoy||Kailua Buoy||Lanai Buoy||Barbers Point #2||Pauwela, Maui||Hilo Bay Buoy||Kaneohe Bay Buoy||Hanalei Kauai Buoy||Kilo Nalu||Buoy 51001||Buoy 51101||Buoy 51000||Buoy 51100||Buoy 51002||Buoy 51003||Buoy 51004|