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SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
900 AM HST SUN FEB 12 2012
OAHU-
900 AM HST SUN FEB 12 2012
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
Surf along north facing shores will rise to 12 to 18 feet today, then continue to rise to 18 to 22 feet on Monday.
Surf along west facing shores will rise to 8 to 12 feet today, then continue to rise to 10 to 15 feet on Monday.
Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet today, then rise to 4 to 6 feet on Monday.
Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Monday.
Outlook through Saturday Feb 18: a series of moderate to large northwest swells are expected through the forecast period with the largest waves expected on Thursday.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST FRI FEB 10 2012
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available.
| FORECAST DATE | SWL HGT | DMNT DIR | DMNT PD | H 1/3 | H 1/10 | HGT TEND | PROB | WIND SPD | WIND DIR | SPD TEND |
| 1PM 02/10 | 7 | NNW | 12 | 10 | 14 | DOWN | 13-19 | E | UP | |
| 5 | E | 6 | 1 | 2 | UP | |||||
| SAT 02/11 | 4 | N | 10 | 6 | 8 | DOWN | LOW | 17-21 | E | SAME |
| 7 | NNW | 14 | 12 | 16 | UP | LOW | ||||
| 6 | E | 7 | 3 | 5 | UP | MED | ||||
| SUN 02/12 | 4 | NNW | 11 | 6 | 8 | DOWN | LOW | 17-21 | E | SAME |
| 9 | WNW | 16 | 18 | 22 | UP | MED | ||||
| 7 | E | 8 | 4 | 6 | UP | MED | ||||
| MON 02/13 | 10 | NW | 16 | 20 | 26 | SAME | MED | 13-19 | E | DOWN |
| 7 | E | 8 | 4 | 6 | SAME | LOW | ||||
| TUE 02/14 | 8 | NW | 15 | 14 | 18 | SAME | LOW | 4-6 | VRB | SAME |
| 5 | E | 8 | 2 | 4 | SAME | LOW | ||||
| WED 02/15 | 7 | NW | 13 | 12 | 14 | DOWN | LOW | 4-6 | VRB | SAME |
| 5 | WNW | 18 | 10 | 12 | UP | LOW | ||||
| 4 | E | 8 | 2 | 4 | DOWN | LOW |
LEGEND:
| SWL HGT | OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE |
| DMNT DIR | DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS POINTS |
| DMNT PD | DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS |
| H1/3 | SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE |
| H1/10 | AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE |
| HGT TEND | HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) |
| PROB | PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW) |
| WIND SPD | OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE |
| WIND DIR | WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS |
| SPD TEND | WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME) |
Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
DISCUSSION:
Summary: active winter pattern for north and west shores with trade windswell increasing for the eastern side.
Detailed: mid Friday on northern shores has upper-end moderate breakers of shorter wave periods within 8-14 seconds and with a continued wide spread in direction from 300 to 360, though dominant from about 330 degrees. This is the final phase of the recent rough, extra-large episode that peaked on Wednesday from the nearby and remote sources north of Hawaii 2/5-8. Buoy 51101 shows a steady decline Friday morning 2/10. This episode is expected to fade out on Saturday as the dominant direction leans toward 350 degrees. A new higher episode is expected on Saturday morning.
A compact severe-gale low pressure intensified just east of the dateline at 40°N on Wednesday 2/8 and tracked rapidly eastward, passing north of Hawaii mid Thursday. Seas were aimed at targets just NE of Hawaii, though with the head of the fetch within 1000 nm, angular spreading should bring in surf locally. The Wave Watch III output gives deep water swell characteristics for surf in the moderate to near high range. Big error bars on the height estimate. It is expected to build Saturday morning after sunrise, peak in the afternoon, and drop to small levels on Sunday from 330-350 degrees.
The jet stream has established a long wave trough from Japan to just east of the dateline, with a series of winter-caliber low pressure cells within the broader massive cyclonic gyre spaced 1-2 days apart that should make for average to above average condition from mostly WNW to NW starting Sunday out a week.
The first system formed late on Tuesday 2/7 east of the Kurils, with a long fetch of severe gales reaching the dateline over the 295-325 degree band by Thursday 2/9. Models keep the long fetch active with a weakening trend in the surface wind speeds Friday into Saturday. This should make for a long-lived high surf episode.
Long period swell from this source is expected to build Sunday morning, reaching high levels within a few hours of sunrise. Surf is expected to peak on Monday from within 295-330 degrees to low-end extra-large levels, meaning breakers on select outer reefs, then drop to lower-end high levels Tuesday into Wednesday from the same direction. A new episode is due late Wednesday and is discussed in the long range below.
Mid Friday on eastern shores has choppy wave energy from 45-90 degrees under increasing moderate to low-end fresh trades. Exposures to northerly swell have higher breakers. Windswell from 60-90 degrees is predicted to increase over the weekend.
The prognosis for the weekend shows the surface high pressure to the NE of the state remaining stationary, and maintaining fresh trades Saturday into Sunday. Breakers from windswell should trend up into Sunday to moderate levels. Models show the surface high cell moving east on Monday, with speeds dropping and veering toward SE by Tuesday. With the wind shadow effect on Oahu by upstream islands, local breezes should be dominated by the land and sea breeze cycles Tuesday into Wednesday. Upstream to the east of Oahu beyond a few hundred miles, fresh trades remain 2/13-15 and should keep small breakers on Oahu Tuesday into Wednesday from 60-90 degrees.
Mid Friday on southern shores has tiny surf. No surf is expected this period.
Into the long range, no sources of southern hemisphere surf are expected 2/16-20.
In the north Pacific, models are showing a long fetch of severe-gale to storm-force winds stretching from the Kurils to the dateline Sunday 2/12 into Monday 2/13. This gives the potential for another round of extra-large surf by Wednesday night and holding high into Friday 2/17.
Models suggest a return to a fresh trade wind pattern starting 2/16 lasting several days, giving way to moderate breakers from windswell out of 60-90 degrees for the weekend of 2/17-20.
Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence.
This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday February 13.
This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.
Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
NWS Forecaster and Pat Caldwell, Pacific/Hawaii Liaison Office, NCDDC
Additional Resources:
| Waimea Buoy | Kailua Buoy | Lanai Buoy | Barbers Point #2 | Pauwela, Maui | Kilo Nalu | Buoy 51001 | Buoy 51101 | Buoy 51000 | Buoy 51100 | Buoy 51002 | Buoy 51003 | Buoy 51004 |
Latest North Pacific Surface Analysis
