Surf Forecast for O`ahu

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000
FZHW52 PHFO 230207
SRFHFO

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
407 PM HST WED FEB 22 2017

HIZ005>011-231515-
OAHU-
407 PM HST WED FEB 22 2017

SURF ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 3 TO 5 FEET THIS EVENING...RISING
TO 8 TO 12 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND HOLDING THROUGH THURSDAY.

SURF ALONG WEST FACING SHORES WILL BE 1 TO 3 FEET THIS
EVENING...RISING TO 5 TO 8 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND HOLDING THROUGH
THURSDAY.

SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES WILL BE 5 TO 7 FEET TONIGHT...LOWERING
TO 4 TO 6 FEET THURSDAY.

SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL BE 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH
THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MARCH 01:
A MODERATE LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL FILL IN TONIGHT
AND HOLD THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
ANOTHER...SLIGHTLY LARGER LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
START ARRIVING VERY LATE THURSDAY AND FILL IN THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE PEAKING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NEAR TO ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL. TRADE WINDS WILL START TO
EASE TONIGHT...AS SHOULD THE ROUGH AND CHOPPY SURF ALONG THE EAST
FACING SHORES. 

SURF HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST HEIGHTS OF THE FACE OR FRONT OF WAVES. THE
SURF FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE ONE THIRD LARGEST WAVES...IN THE ZONE OF MAXIMUM
REFRACTION. SOME WAVES MAY BE MORE THAN TWICE AS HIGH AS THE
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT. EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER RIP CURRENTS IN OR NEAR
ANY SURF ZONE.

$$


000
FXHW52 PHFO 220022
SRDHFO

COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCEI HONOLULU HI
222 PM HST TUE FEB 21 2017

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

FORECAST  SWL  DMNT DMNT  H    H     HGT          WIND   WIND   SPD
DATE      HGT  DIR  PD    1/3  1/10  TEND   PROB  SPD    DIR    TEND

1 PM        3  NNW   10     4     5  DOWN         19-23   ENE   SAME
02/21       8  ENE    8     5     7  SAME

WED         4  WNW   17     6    10  UP     LOW   19-23   ENE   SAME
02/22       8  ENE    8     5     7  SAME   MED 

THU         6  NW    14    10    12  DOWN   MED   17-21   NE    DOWN
02/23       7  ENE    8     4     6  DOWN   LOW 

FRI         4  NNW   13     6     8  DOWN   LOW   13-19   NE    DOWN
02/24       5  WNW   18    10    12  UP     LOW 
            6  ENE    8     3     5  DOWN   LOW 

SAT         7  NW    15    12    16  SAME   LOW   11-16   ENE   DOWN
02/25       5  ENE    8     2     4  DOWN   LOW 

SUN         5  NW    14     8    10  DOWN   LOW    9-13   E     DOWN
02/26       3  ENE    8     1     3  DOWN   LOW 

LEGEND:
SWL HGT    OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CREST
           IN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIR   DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASS
           POINTS
DMNT PD    DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3       SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10      AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURF
           ZONE
HGT TEND   HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROB       PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPD   OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED
           20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIR   WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TEND   WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...
LONG-PERIOD WNW AND STEADY TRADE WINDSWELL.

DETAILED...
MID TUESDAY ON NORTHERN SHORES HAS BREAKERS NEAR A WINTER MINIMUM
FROM 330-020 DEGREES. AN INCREASE IS PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

JET LEVEL RIDGING NEAR THE DATELINE HAS KEPT A PAIR OF WINTER-
CALIBER...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE
DATELINE. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR OVERLAPPING...LONG-PERIOD EVENTS
FROM THE WNW TO NW.

THE FIRST SYSTEM DEEPENED 2/19 NEAR 40N...165E WITH A NNE TRACK.
IT REACHED THE ALEUTIANS WEST OF THE DATELINE 2/20. LONG-PERIOD
SWELL FROM THIS PHASE OF THE PATTERN IS MODELLED TO FILL IN SLOWLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 305-315 DEGREES. IT SHOULD PEAK EARLY
THURSDAY NEAR THE ACTIVE SEASON...SEPTEMBER TO MAY...AVERAGE AND
DROP INTO FRIDAY FROM THIS DIRECTION.

AN ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHED EAST OF THE DATELINE 2/21 BACKED BY FRESH
TO NEAR GALE WINDS BEYOND 1000 NM AWAY. SHORTER-PERIOD SWELL OF
10-13 SECONDS FROM 315-330 DEGREES SHOULD ADD TO THE SHORT-PERIOD
PHASE OF THE 305-315 DEGREE ENERGY...AS THE EVENT LINGERS ON
FRIDAY...WHEN A NEW LONG-PERIOD EVENT IS EXPECTED.

A SECOND SYSTEM FORMED EAST OF HOKKAIDO...JAPAN 2/20. IT TRACKED
EAST FOR LESS THAN A DAY...AND IS TURNING NORTH ON 2/21 NEAR 165E.
THIS SYSTEM IS STRONGER AND BROADER THAN THE FIRST ONE WITH A WIDE
FETCH OVER THE 280-310 DEGREE BAND. SEVERE GALES ARE MODELLED TO
REACH THE CLOSEST POINT OF ABOUT 1800 NM FROM HAWAII EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS PREDICTED TO DROP TO
948 MB OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS LATE WEDNESDAY AS WAVE ENERGY IS
ADDED OVER THE 310-320 DEGREE BAND.

LONG-PERIOD FORERUNNERS ARE DUE FRIDAY MORNING FROM 280-310
DEGREES. THE SYSTEM SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH A LONG-LIVED MAXIMUM SATURDAY
FROM 280-320 DEGREES. IT SHOULD DROP BELOW AVERAGE ON SUNDAY FROM
THE SAME DIRECTION.

MID TUESDAY ON EASTERN SHORES HAS ROUGH BREAKERS AT LEVELS ABOVE
THE TRADE WINDSWELL AVERAGE FROM 40-70 DEGREES. SIMILAR SURF IS
LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY.

FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER HAWAII HAS A LIMITED FETCH LENGTH
TO THE ENE...WHICH IS KEEPING THE DOMINANT WAVE PERIOD FROM
GROWING MUCH BEYOND 8 SECONDS. MODELS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND AND A
BACKING IN DIRECTION OF THE LOCAL TRADES THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEE THE LATEST NWS STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SYNOPTIC
DETAILS. BREAKERS FROM WINDSWELL SHOULD TREND DOWN WITH THE LOCAL
WIND.

NO SURF FROM THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE BEYOND TINY TO SMALL IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

INTO THE LONG RANGE...THE WNW TO NW SWELL IS PREDICTED TO LINGER
INTO 2/27 AS IT DROPS TO SMALL LEVELS. OTHERWISE...WAVE ENERGY
FROM WNW TO NNW IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW AVERAGE 2/27-3/1.

MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE TO THE NE OF HAWAII GAINING GALE STATUS
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD CALIFORNIA 2/25-27. THIS COULD SEND IN A
MODERATE-PERIOD NNE TO NE SWELL 2/27-3/1.

EASTERLY WINDSWELL SHOULD BE NEAR THE AVERAGE 2/27-3/1.

LONG RANGE FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO MAJOR REVISIONS.

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL RESUME ON FRIDAY...FEBRUARY 24.

THIS FORECAST WAS PRODUCED THROUGH THE COLLABORATIVE EFFORTS OF
NWS AND NCEI. PLEASE SEND SUGGESTIONS TO W-HFO.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
OR CALL THE WARNING COORDINATION METEOROLOGIST AT 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES:
SEE /IN LOWERCASE/  HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/PAGES/MARINE.PHP

$$

NWS FORECASTERS AND NCEI PAT CALDWELL

Additional Resources:

Waimea Buoy Kailua Buoy Lanai Buoy Barbers Point #2 Pauwela, Maui Hilo Bay Buoy Kaneohe Bay Buoy Hanalei Kauai Buoy Kilo Nalu
Buoy 51001 Buoy 51101 Buoy 51000 Buoy 51100 Buoy 51002 Buoy 51003 Buoy 51004

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