SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
344 PM HST WED JUN 29 2016
344 PM HST WED JUN 29 2016
Surf along north facing shores will be 1 to 2 feet through Thursday.
Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Thursday.
Surf along east facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet tonight, increasing to 4 to 6 feet Thursday.
Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Thursday.
Outlook through Wednesday July 06: small southerly component swell will maintain average summer time surf along south facing shores into next week. Rough surf conditions will return along east facing beaches Thursday through the upcoming weekend due to strong trade winds, and may reach high surf advisory levels by Saturday. Trade winds will decrease Sunday night into the new week lowering the surf along east facing shores.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
253 PM HST WED JUN 29 2016
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/
|SWL HGT||OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|DMNT DIR||DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS|
|DMNT PD||DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS|
|H1/3||SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE|
|H1/10||AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE|
|HGT TEND||HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
|PROB||PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)|
|WIND SPD||OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|WIND DIR||WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS|
|SPD TEND||WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
Discussion: summary: Easterly windswell rising above average over the holiday weekend.
Detailed: Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has breakers below the trade windswell average. A slow increase is expected Thursday.
See the latest NWS state forecast discussion for an explanation of expected regional winds.
A long, wide fetch of fresh to strong trades south of a ridge axis N to NE of Hawaii starting 6/30 should make for a long-lived trade windswell. The fetch is expected to extend beyond a 1000 nm upstream to the E to NE.
Fresh to strong winds by Friday through the holiday would make for rough, choppy breakers.
The dominant wave period should trend up Friday to Sunday. The longer the period, the more amplification of wave height in the transition from deep water to breaker.
Surf should rise above average on Friday from 60-90 degrees, peak on Sunday, and remain above average on Monday from the same direction.
Mid Wednesday on southern shores has breakers from 170-190 degrees at heights near the summer average. Similar surf is possible for Thursday.
A storm-force low pressure tracked east along 60s to the SE of New Zealand 6/19-20. This source gave the long period swell that brought surf above average Tuesday 6/28 centered near 190 degrees.
The associated low pressure occluded east of the Hawaii swell window on 6/21, and remained at severe-gale to storm-force status as the pattern stalled in location 6/22-24. Highest seas were aimed N to NE at the Americas. The fetch was wide, and with the high seas, potential for angular spreading to deliver surf locally is greater. Similar surf as 6/29 should hold into 7/1, then fade out 7/2 from 160-175 degrees for exposures facing the swell.
A compact severe gale in the Tasman sea west of New Zealand 6/25-26 has low odds for making below to near average surf locally from 208-220 degrees. It is due to slowly fill in late Saturday, peak late Sunday, then drop on Monday.
Into the long range, after a long spell during June of active strong low pressures in the Hawaii swell window, conditions went quiet S to SE of New Zealand 6/22-29. This should mean a below average spell of summer minimal surf 7/5-6.
Models show a severe gale east of New Zealand 7/1-3, with the head of the fetch of gales reaching near 3000 nm away by 7/2. This is closer than most sources so is more favorable for surf in Hawaii. Wave watch iii places 8 feet deep-water, long-period swell off american samoa 7/4 and to 11 feet off French Polynesia 7/5. This is a good indicator for above average surf locally. It would likely have forerunners in Thursday 7/7 with the event filled in by 7/8. It should last through the weekend of 7/9-10 from 180-200 degrees.
Breakers from trades are expected to drop to near average by 7/6.
Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.
This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, July 1.
This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to email@example.com or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.
Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
NWS Forecaster and NCEI PAT CALDWELL
|Waimea Buoy||Kailua Buoy||Lanai Buoy||Barbers Point #2||Pauwela, Maui||Hilo Bay Buoy||Kaneohe Bay Buoy||Hanalei Kauai Buoy||Kilo Nalu||Buoy 51001||Buoy 51101||Buoy 51000||Buoy 51100||Buoy 51002||Buoy 51003||Buoy 51004|