SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
419 PM HST MON AUG 29 2016
419 PM HST MON AUG 29 2016
HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES
Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet tonight, rising to 3 to 5 feet Tuesday during the day, and to 6 to 8 feet Tuesday evening.
Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Tuesday.
Surf along north facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Tuesday.
Surf along west facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Tuesday.
Outlook through Monday September 05: surf along east facing shores will become much higher as swells from hurricane madeline build starting Tuesday night. More large east swells from hurricane Lester are expected later in the week, keeping the surf elevated at least into the weekend along east facing shores. A small long period west swell generated by typhoons in the west Pacific may provide a slight bump in surf Thursday into the weekend for west facing shores. No other significant swells are expected.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
350 PM HST MON AUG 29 2016
THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT
300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/
|SWL HGT||OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|DMNT DIR||DOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS|
|DMNT PD||DOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS|
|H1/3||SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE|
|H1/10||AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE|
|HGT TEND||HEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
|PROB||PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)|
|WIND SPD||OPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE|
|WIND DIR||WIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS|
|SPD TEND||WIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)|
SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME
BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.
Discussion: summary: Tropical sources sending waves from west and east.
Detailed: Mid Monday on southern exposures has summer minimal levels from 160-200 degrees. Similar low surf is expected on Tuesday.
High pressure dominated the southern hemisphere mid latitude surf sources for Hawaii 8/21-26. No long-period surf beyond summer background levels is expected this week from 170-220 degrees.
Short-lived, short-period surf from tropical cyclone madeline is possible late Thursday to Friday from 120-180 degrees. More discussion regarding madeline is given below.
Mid Monday on westerly exposures has mostly flat conditions. Similar surf is expected on Tuesday.
Typhoon lionrock S to SE of Japan last week began a slow northeastward track 8/25 at category 3 hurricane force. The system is just SE of Tokyo on 8/29 and is predicted to track NW as it weakens.
Long-period swell is expected to arrive local starting Thursday from 275-285 degrees. This directional band has significant shadow effects from Niihau and Kauai on Oahu. This makes for larger error bars on the surf height estimates. The event should hold into the weekend with a pinch more WNW direction 275-295 degrees.
Mid Monday on eastern shores has short-period breakers from 60-90 degrees at levels near to just below the trade windswell average. An increase is predicted for Tuesday.
Strong breezes over the 30-60 degree band on the SE flank of a surface high pressure south of Alaska 8/25-26 is expected to produce a short-lived, remote windswell for Hawaii. Noaa buoy 51000 to the NE of the Big Island shows the start of this 8-12 second energy mid morning 8/29. It should bring breakers to the average by Tuesday.
See the latest statements from the NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center regarding major hurricane madeline.
Hurricane madeline is generating seas aimed at Oahu over the 90-110 degree band. This band receives shadowing by islands ESE of Oahu. Long-period swell generate 8/29 is expected to reach Oahu late Tuesday through Wednesday. The predicted track places madeline behind the Big Island shadow by 8/30, so the long- period surf on Oahu should be short-lived.
Enhanced winds north of madeline are expected to generate a rough, above average windswell starting Wednesday for Oahu and holding into Friday from within 45-90 degrees.
Based on the 8/29 mid day forecast track of madeline, a short- lived windswell from 120-180 degrees is possible on Oahu late Thursday through Friday, bringing breakers to near the trade windswell average for exposed SE to S shores.
See the latest statements of the NWS National Hurricane Center concerning major hurricane Lester.
Lester reached category 4 status on 8/29 at a location about 1700 nm east of Hawaii. The present location and track for 8/30-31 allow seas to aim at Hawaii over the 80-100 degree band. Long period swell is expected to fill in on Oahu Thursday and build into the weekend. It should maintain breakers well above average under choppy, rough conditions for easterly exposures.
Into the long range, rough, well above average surf from Lester is expected to continue on Sunday morning 9/4 from within 40-90 degrees. It is modelled to drop sharply late Sunday to Monday 9/5.
Remnant lionrock surf from 290-305 degrees is possible Sunday 9/5 with small breakers.
In the southern hemisphere, after a long hiatus, an austral winter-caliber low pressure pattern has returned SE of New Zealand. An extra-tropical cyclone is tracking east along 60s near 180°W 8/29. Central pressure dropped to 952 mb 8/28 as it moved east of the New Zealand shadow. Seas have grown to within 30-35 feet over a large area south of 50s. Models progress the system eastward, with another day of Hawaii surf generation 8/30.
Long period forerunners should fill in locally late Sunday, with a more consistent pattern of set arrival on Oahu by late Monday 9/5 from 180-200 degrees. The event should peak above average late Tuesday 9/6, then slowly decline into 9/8 from the same direction.
Long range forecasts are subject to high uncertainty.
This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, August 31.
This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to firstname.lastname@example.org or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.
Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.
NWS Forecaster and NCEI PAT CALDWELL
|Waimea Buoy||Kailua Buoy||Lanai Buoy||Barbers Point #2||Pauwela, Maui||Hilo Bay Buoy||Kaneohe Bay Buoy||Hanalei Kauai Buoy||Kilo Nalu||Buoy 51001||Buoy 51101||Buoy 51000||Buoy 51100||Buoy 51002||Buoy 51003||Buoy 51004|