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SRFHFO

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
310 PM HST MON SEP 24 2018

OAHU-
310 PM HST MON SEP 24 2018

Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet tonight, lowering to 1 to 3 feet Tuesday.

Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Tuesday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Tuesday.

Surf along north facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Tuesday.

Outlook through Monday October 01: Surf will remain below advisory levels along all shores through the week. Bumpy, short-period surf along east facing shores will gradually decline throughout the week as the winds ease and shift more southerly. An increase in wind swell is expected over the weekend as trade winds return. A small north-northwest swell is expected late Thursday into Friday. This swell is expected to peak on Saturday and hold through the weekend. Small southwest and south swells will give surf along south facing shores a small boost throughout the week, but remain well below advisory level.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.


FXHW52 PHFO xml button
SRDHFO

COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
310 PM HST MON SEP 24 2018

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
09/24
3NNE934DOWN7-10SESAME
4E723SAME
2S1124SAME
TUE
09/25
2NNE923DOWNLOW9-13SUP
3E713DOWNLOW
2SSE1023DOWNLOW
WED
09/26
2SSE1023SAMELOW9-13SDOWN
THU
09/27
1SW1924UPLOW4-6VRBSAME
FRI
09/28
5NNW1068UPLOW9-13EUP
2SW1735UPLOW
SAT
09/29
6NNW11812DOWNLOW11-16ESAME
2SW1635SAMELOW

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii

Oahu Surf Climatology

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY:. Slow go to start of Fall.

DETAILED:. Mid Monday on northern shores has small breakers from 000-030 degrees at levels below the September average. Heights are dropping.

The remote windswell from NNW to NNE peaked over the weekend. It was generated by strong breezes to the E to SE of a high pressure cell near 50N that moved east 9/20-22. This event is expected to fade out Tuesday into Wednesday.

Models deepen a surface low pressure system near 40N, 165W 9/25. A cut- off low is expected at the jet stream, keeping the surface feature slow-moving 9/26-27. Strong breezes are modelled to nose within 800 nm late Tuesday and bring in shorter-period surf Thursday night into Friday from 325-345 degrees. Stronger winds mostly near gales are modelled closer to the center of the low late Tuesday through early Thursday beyond 1200 nm away. This should give the peak of the event Saturday morning from 330-350 degrees at levels above the September average.

Mid Monday on eastern shores has breakers from 0-90 degrees below the trade windswell average. More northerly exposures are higher as aforementioned. The windswell from 50-90 degrees is expected to drop to an east side minimum on Tuesday and remain low into the weekend.

See the latest NWS State Forecast Discussion regarding the local winds and weather this week.

Mid Monday on southern shores has breakers from 140-220 degrees at levels below the summer average. Low heights should continue on Tuesday.

Trades in the southern hemisphere should keep low background breakers this week from 140-180 degrees. A subtropical low pressure formed SE of the Tuamotus of French Polynesia 9/22 and moved slowly ESE. The Tuamotus are expected to shadow most of the swell. Perhaps a pinch more SE shorter-period swell locally 9/29-30.

Extra-tropical cyclones that tracked east to the SW to SE of New Zealand 9/17-19 could add low, long-period surf locally 9/25-26 from 180-2220 degrees.

A much stronger low pressure with seas to 40 feet SW of New Zealand 9/19-21 could up the ante for the Tasman Sea component out of 208-220 degrees beginning Thursday. After a slow start, the event should be filled in by Friday 9/28 to near the summer average. Odds are low due to shadowing issues by islands of Oceania on Hawaii.

Into the long range, the Tasman component should remain about the same locally 9/30-10/1. Models show a storm-force system moving east to the SE of New Zealand 9/25-27 that could bring surf locally above the summer average 10/2-5 from 180-220 degrees.

In the north Pacific, models suggest a weak low pressure hugging the Aleutians just west of the Date Line 9/27-28 that could keep NNW surf near the September average 9/30 into 10/1. Models suggest a stronger low pressure tracking east from Hokkaido, Japan 9/28 to the Date Line by 9/30 that could bring WNW surf to near or above the October average mid next week, roughly 10/3.

East side is expected to remain near or below average 9/30-10/2.

Long range forecasts are subject to major revisions.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Wednesday, September 26.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php

NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

Additional Resources:

Waimea Buoy Kailua Buoy Lanai Buoy Barbers Point #2 Pauwela, Maui Hilo Bay Buoy Kaneohe Bay Buoy Hanalei Kauai Buoy Kilo Nalu
Buoy 51001 Buoy 51101 Buoy 51000 Buoy 51100 Buoy 51002 Buoy 51003 Buoy 51004

Latest North Pacific Surface Analysis

Upcoming tides for select Hawaii locations

Tides for Honolulu

Tide tables for Hawaii