FZHW50 PHFO 090501
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
700 PM HST THU MAY 8 2008
OAHU-
700 PM HST THU MAY 8 2008
Surf along south facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Friday.
Surf along west facing shores will remain 2 feet or less through Friday.
Surf along north facing shores will persist at 2 feet or less through Friday.
Surf along east facing shores will be 4 to 6 feet through Friday.
Outlook through Wednesday May 14. No significant swells are expected through Tuesday. A moderate northwest swell is expected late Wednesday.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face or front of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height in the zone of maximum refraction. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST WED MAY 7 2008
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 pm when Pat Caldwell is available. When Pat Caldwell is not available, the latest collaborative forecast will remain posted for 4 days.
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LEGEND:
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Map Credit: Dave Kimball (MARBEC) and Michael Parke (NOAA/NMFS)
Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.
DISCUSSION:
SUMMARY...Windward shores top the heights.
DETAILED...Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has small to moderate, short-period breakers from 80-90 degrees. Trades have freshened and should stay about the same through Saturday. In turn, breakers should favor moderate levels for Thursday into the weekend. Wind speeds and surf trending down on Sunday from the same direction.
Mid Wednesday on southern shores has tiny to small, seasonal background surf. The windswell is affecting eastern exposures of the south shore, and refracting into other areas. Wave models suggest a one-foot deep water swell from the Tasman Sea, 211-220 degrees, with 12-13 seconds for today and Thursday. The kilo nalu sensor shows 12-13 second, low energy, although the measured direction is not suitable for validation since the sensor is in shallow water where the swell is already bending with the sea floor shape. The weather pattern downunder has been unfavorable for Hawaii surf production with continued minimal surf through the period.
Mid Wednesday on northern shores is flat to tiny, mostly from refracted windswell. More of the same is expected into Saturday.
The jet track is zonal between 40-50°N latitude, with weak surface low pressure systems forming back-to-back and moving from the northwest to the northeast Pacific. A system west of the dateline about 2000 nm out today has near gale winds over a compact area, that could give rise to tiny to small breakers starting locally late Saturday into Monday, with the direction starting from 320, and ending near 350 degrees.
Into the long range, jet stream models suggest a stronger than normal trough forming between the dateline and Hawaii next week, that could lead to above average surf from NW to N later next week. Such a position of the upper air currents would spell below average trades locally, allowing land and sea breezes next week. In the southern hemisphere, compact gales are modelled to favor the Tasman Sea west to northwest of New Zealand starting this weekend, but not likely to generate surf much beyond the background levels starting around 5/18. Long range estimates are subject to low confidence. The next collaborative forecast will be issued on Friday, May 9.
This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCDDC. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.
$$.
Cp/Pat Caldwell, Pacific/Hawaii Liaison Office, NCDDC
Additional Resources:
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