Surf Forecast for O`ahu

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SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
406 PM HST SUN JUL 23 2017

OAHU-
406 PM HST SUN JUL 23 2017

Surf along north facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Monday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Monday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 4 to 6 feet through Monday.

Surf along south facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet through Monday.

Outlook through Sunday July 30: Moderate surf will continue through Monday along east facing shores, which may become a bit more choppy by Tuesday as the trade winds strengthen. Surf along east and west facing shores may get a boost late this week as swell from distant tropical cyclones in the east and west Pacific arrives. Meanwhile, small background swells from the south and southeast will produce small to moderate surf along south facing shores through this week.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.


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COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
244 PM HST FRI JUL 21 2017

THIS COLLABORATIVE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AT

300 PM WHEN PAT CALDWELL IS AVAILABLE/

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
07/21
7ENE846UP13-19ENEDOWN
2S1324SAME
SAT
07/22
7ENE1169UPMED11-16ESAME
2S1224DOWNLOW
SUN
07/23
6ENE1168SAMELOW11-16ESAME
2SE1023SAMELOW
MON
07/24
5ENE1158DOWNLOW7-10SESAME
2SE1023SAMELOW
TUE
07/25
6E835SAMELOW13-19EUP
2SE1023SAMELOW
WED
07/26
6E835SAMELOW13-19ESAME
2SE1023SAMELOW

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHT MEASURED FROM TROUGH TO CRESTIN FEET LOCATED 20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
DMNT DIRDOMINANT DIRECTION TYPICALLY +/-10 DEGREES IN 16 COMPASSPOINTS
DMNT PDDOMINANT PERIOD IN SECONDS
H1/3SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT IN THE SURF ZONE
H1/10AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST ONE-TENTH WAVES IN THE SURFZONE
HGT TENDHEIGHT TENDENCY OF SWELL (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBPROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE (VALID VALUES: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOPEN WATER WIND SPEED MEASURED IN KNOTS LOCATED20 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE
WIND DIRWIND DIRECTION IN 16 COMPASS POINTS
SPD TENDWIND SPEED TENDENCY (VALID VALUES: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii

Oahu Surf Climatology

SURF HEIGHTS WILL VARY BETWEEN DIFFERENT BEACHES AND AT THE SAME

BEACH AT DIFFERENT BREAK AREAS.

Discussion: summary: Eastern shores topping the heights.

Detailed: Mid Friday on eastern shores has rising breakers from 80-90 degrees at levels near to a notch above average. Heights are expected to continue an upward trend Saturday from 60-90 degrees.

See the latest central Pacific hurricane forecast center for details on the weakening Fernanda. Oahu was shadowed for the longer period Fernanda swell that passed through the Hawaiian islands from 95-115 degrees 7/19-20. Primary surf for Oahu is from a large area of fresh to strong trades associated with a high pressure ridge near 35°N to the NW to NE of Fernanda out 600 nm. The pattern shifted eastward with Fernanda. It is starting to pick up 7/21.

The pacioos cdip buoys at Hilo, Pauwela, and mokapu show a rise 7/21 in the morning from 80-90 degrees in the 8-10 second band associated with the enhanced trades. Wave watch iii shows a maximum in this energy as the dominant wave period steps up a notch passing by Oahu Saturday centered from 70 degrees. This should keep breakers above average, with a size and characteristic of breakers that are typical of strong trade wind events. Given the 7/21 forecast with Fernanda becoming a remnant east of the longitude of the Big Island by Sunday, this suggests local surf likely to peak Saturday 7/22, yet remain elevated into Monday. Heights should fall back to average trade windswell levels by late Monday. Stay tuned for updates given the elusive nature of tropical systems.

Refracting and diffracting easterly windswell aforementioned should affect select exposures of northern and southern shores.

The annual maximum of spring tides occurs with the new moon may through July. This year, an addition of sea level height is given by higher than normal mean sea level in the vicinity. In combination with the above average surf, coastal wave run-up is expected to be above average 7/22-24 at the pm high tides.

Strengthening surface high pressure near 40°N, 145°W 9/23-25 is expected to set up a large fetch of moderate to fresh trades E to NE of Hawaii. This pattern should keep breakers near the trade windswell average Tuesday into Wednesday 7/25-26 from within 60-90 degrees.

See the latest NWS state forecast discussion for details of local winds and weather.

Mid Friday on southern shores has summer background level breakers from sources in the southern hemisphere. Heights should remain low on Saturday from 140-220 degrees.

Austral winter has had a dormant pattern in the mid latitudes for the SW to central south Pacific 7/14-19. The large area of fresh to strong trades over the past two weeks in the SE Pacific are likely to be the primary background surf producer for the upcoming period from 130-150 degrees.

Into the long range, a gale in the Tasman sea has had strongest winds aimed west of Fiji. The area aimed towards Hawaii has had lower end gales. It is compensated in surf potential for Hawaii by reaching into the subtropics. It should become the dominant background swell locally from 208-220 degrees 7/28-30.

The north Pacific tropics are active across the basin. One can count 10 tropical cyclonic gyres in the wind field between Mexico and china on 7/21. Tropical system Greg is the next cyclone with potential for surf in Hawaii. Models suggest a similar enhancement to trade winds north of the cyclone that could bring shorter- period surf above average within 7/28-30.

Tropical systems in the western Pacific will be monitored for surf potential. As long as the systems are tracking westward away from Hawaii, surf potential is near nil. If the systems gain an eastward component to the track, the potential increases.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, July 24.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and ncei. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

Additional resources: see /in lowercase/ http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/pages/marine.php.

NWS Forecaster and NCEI PAT CALDWELL

Additional Resources:

Waimea Buoy Kailua Buoy Lanai Buoy Barbers Point #2 Pauwela, Maui Hilo Bay Buoy Kaneohe Bay Buoy Hanalei Kauai Buoy Kilo Nalu
Buoy 51001 Buoy 51101 Buoy 51000 Buoy 51100 Buoy 51002 Buoy 51003 Buoy 51004

Latest North Pacific Surface Analysis

Upcoming tides for select Hawaii locations

Tides for Honolulu

Tide tables for Hawaii